weatherguy425 wrote:For the VERY few of us who could actually use a little more rain, this is not exactly what I was wanting to see. Hopefully the ridge won't become to stubborn.
**Sorry, couldn't get image down to size to attach.
I wouldn't worry about that ridging too much. If the models are 'sniffing' the pattern correctly, yet another frontal boundary sags S next week and more weakness develops across Texas with lowering heights and even a hint of another inverted trough tracking W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge. HGX touched on that potential this afternoon as well...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE OVER HOUSTON AIDING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND A FEW HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL GAGES SHOWING
2-2.5" OF RAINFALL SO FAR. CAPE OF 1500-3000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN SHOULD LESSEN AS HEATING
WINDS DOWN AND SHADING.
STORMS SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AND SKIES CLEAR LEADING TO A MILD
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING OVER LA/AR/MO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER SETX WED/THU. PW VALUES FALLING AND
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT WHICH SHOULD COMBINE
WITH THE HEIGHT RISES TO INCREASE THE CAP AND LESSEN THE DAYTIME
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SHOW THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF LOWERING POPS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CO/NE/KS AREA THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
KEEP POPS LOW TO EXTREMELY LOW OVER SETX THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100-106 WILL BE FREQUENT. TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY
ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE IN AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL ONLY FORECAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THE LATER
PERIODS.
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weatherguy425 wrote:For the VERY few of us who could actually use a little more rain, this is not exactly what I was wanting to see. Hopefully the ridge won't become to stubborn.
**Sorry, couldn't get image down to size to attach.
I wouldn't worry about that ridging too much. If the models are 'sniffing' the pattern correctly, yet another frontal boundary sags S next week and more weakness develops across Texas with lowering heights and even a hint of another inverted trough tracking W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge. HGX touched on that potential this afternoon as well...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE OVER HOUSTON AIDING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND A FEW HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL GAGES SHOWING
2-2.5" OF RAINFALL SO FAR. CAPE OF 1500-3000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN SHOULD LESSEN AS HEATING
WINDS DOWN AND SHADING.
STORMS SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AND SKIES CLEAR LEADING TO A MILD
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING OVER LA/AR/MO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER SETX WED/THU. PW VALUES FALLING AND
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT WHICH SHOULD COMBINE
WITH THE HEIGHT RISES TO INCREASE THE CAP AND LESSEN THE DAYTIME
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SHOW THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF LOWERING POPS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CO/NE/KS AREA THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
KEEP POPS LOW TO EXTREMELY LOW OVER SETX THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100-106 WILL BE FREQUENT. TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY
ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE IN AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL ONLY FORECAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THE LATER
PERIODS.
True! ECMWF is especially hinting on this scenario, GFS is fairly dry and warm though. ECMWF has had a better track record with this past event so shouldn't hold as much stock in the GFS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012
TXZ197-199-210>213-226-227-235-182230-
WASHINGTON-MONTGOMERY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...
WILLIS...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...
KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA
318 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012
...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH A BUOYANT AIR MASS AND
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. STAY ALERT AS THESE
FUNNEL CLOUDS DO ON OCCASION STRETCH TO THE GROUND AND BECOME
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 430 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY. THIS IS
FALLING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAIN DURING THE
PAST WEEK AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
MAY RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREAMS AND
STREETS.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY INCLUDING JERSEY VILLAGE AND CYPRESS.
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It's coming down pretty good in Stafford, but the skies are bright. Hearing lots of thunder too. Not complaining at all, after last year I LOVE rain in the summertime.
Much more quiet day across SE TX today. Its was a little more hot with flat sparse cumulus here in NTX today. Looks to be much more dry weekend for SE TX.
After a bit of drying out over the weekend with heat and humidity returning, the guidance is beginning to trend toward a pesky upper low traversing W beneath the building Central/Mid West Ridge. The 12Z GFS has come in 'wetter' beginning Sunday as showers/storms across Louisiana begin to meander W across Texas for the beginning of the upcoming work week.
Attachments
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...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...
AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GALENA PARK. THIS STORM WAS
DEVELOPING AND NEARLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD SECONDARY
STREETS AND FEEDER ROADS AS WELL.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH
HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS AND SHELDON.
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It was coming down cats and dogs in Pasadena. Traffic on 225 was almost at a standstill as the visibility was so bad. Feeders were starting to flood. Lightning was pretty fierce. Has eased up in Deer Park now.
The 12Z GFS and to some extent the WRF/NMM does retrograde the trough further W that is currently offshore of Louisiana. While those models are not remarkably wet, they do suggest that rain chance may need to be increased as we head into tomorrow and Sunday. We are clearly stuck in a pattern that may not change in the foreseeable future, IMO.
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Watching those storms approaching LCH .... They look rather potent with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings out for them right now over SW Louisiana .... if they hold together would not be suprised to see some overnight storms especially over the eastern half of the HGX CWA and along the coastal counties.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Very tight circulation associated with an apparent meso low ESE of Cameron,La. Looks stationary or maybe drifting west. May help enhance convection tomorrow, especially along the coast, IMO.
Are y'all doing some cloud seeding or something? 
