AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD SHRINK WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HOUSTON METRO AREA HAS PROBABLY
STABILIZED ENOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PROBABLY ISN`T MUCH OF A RUSH
HOUR THREAT.
FCST OF MOSTLY PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE LARGE PICTURE BUT VARY
IN TIMES/LOCATION/AMOUNTS OF DAILY PRECIP. OVERALL SCENARIO
REALLY HASN`T CHANGED. UPPER TROF/WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
AND SHOULD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AM EXPECTING PW`S TO
CLIMB EVEN FURTHER ON TUE AND WED - PROBABLY AVERAGING 2.2-2.3"
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FCST TO SAG INTO N TX
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...MAYBE EVEN STALL JUST NORTH OF
CLL-CROCKETT IF ECMWF & NAM12 ARE ONTO THINGS. NAM12 ACTUALLY
SHOWING PW`S NEAR 2.5" POOLING AHEAD OF IT IN NRN ZONES. SO...WITH
JUST SOME MINIMAL HEATING EXPECT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MENTIONED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN
ZONES/GRIDS. HOU METRO AREA HAD SOME OBSERVED RATES OF 2.8"/HR
EARLIER TODAY. SAME TYPE SCENARIO PROBABLY IN THE WORKS FOR WED.
ECMWF IS (AND HAS BEEN) PAINTING A VERY WET 48-60 HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA...LIKE FF WATCH THREAT WET. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY IN THE SHORT TERM - ESPECIALLY IF WE DON`T END UP GETTING
THE OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE PRECIP AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FCST.
SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS REGARDING EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
WEAKNESS/TROF IN THE EXTENDED FCST AS WELL AS OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AROUND FOR
AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL SHRA/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. ONCE AGAIN THE HI-RES ARW WAS THE BEST AT FCSTING
WHERE CONVECTION WOULD INITIATE. THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOW MOVING PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. HI-RES SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT TO THE SSW AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON THE IR/WV SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WITH A SW TO NE SHEAR AXIS
BISECTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS OUR CWFA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE THE TIME
FRAME WHEN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PEAK. A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HENCE THE HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PWS
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD.
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID
90S EXTREME SOUTHWEST.
