Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

I WANT A PRO MET TO GIVE A FULL EXPLANATION AS TO,,,WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON WITH ALL THIS? HOW COULD THE MODELS BE SO WRONG,,WHY IS THE TRACK CHANGING?

Chill out AZ. Go work out. You'll feel better...

[singlemom]

Got a question....if Debby *does* stahl out for 24-48 hours.....will that change it's Eastward progression?

(I know...just wishing...lol.)

[srainhoutx]

Got a question....if Debby *does* stahl out for 24-48 hours.....will that change it's Eastward progression?

(I know...just wishing...lol.)

Here is what the "Pro Mets" at the HPC just issued, singlemom...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

VALID JUN 24/1200 UTC THRU JUN 28/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...

FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION


...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...

PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST

THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR DEBBY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT.
NOW CONCERNING THE GUIDANCE... LARGE SPREAD AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH DEBBY CONTINUES... AS THE MODELS SUGGEST ITS LOCATION
ANYWHERE FROM BERMUDA TO SERN LA AT 84 HRS. THE 00Z/24 ECMWF AND
12Z GFS BOTH REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT BUT WITH ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
FORECAST TRACKS... EC TOWARD SERN LA AND GFS TO NRN FL AND
ATLANTIC. THE 12Z NAM/UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY
CHANGES... PERHAPS DUE TO EACH MODEL FINALLY GAINING A GRASP OF
THE SYSTEM IN THE ERN/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE THREE MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW A RATHER STATIONARY SYSTEM OVER THE NERN GULF OR
DEBBY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL. THE MEANS ARE
NOT MUCH HELP... AS OVER TIME THEY ALL FILTER OR DIMINISH THE
SYSTEM ENTIRELY. THE ONE CERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IS IT APPEARS
DEBBY WILL REMAIN ASYMMETRICAL OR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

[perk]

I WANT A PRO MET TO GIVE A FULL EXPLANATION AS TO,,,WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON WITH ALL THIS? HOW COULD THE MODELS BE SO WRONG,,WHY IS THE TRACK CHANGING?

I agree how can so many models get it wrong,especially the (as the NHC says the euro a good performing model)get it wrong and the GFS an outlier end up being right.This really concerns me going into the remainder of the season.

[singlemom]

nods nods......so....the jury is still out. Thanks for the update 'srain.

[srainhoutx]

nods nods......so....the jury is still out. Thanks for the update 'srain.

No problem at all. This is what makes weather so interesting, for me anyway. All the unknowns, the twists and turns that cannot be foreseen. Since I became interested in all things weather back in 1961 when Carla was heading our way, I can think of no other 'hobby' or profession that can be more entertaining or even nerve racking. It drives some folk’s nuts...lol. After all, that why we are here posting on this very weather board community. We share a passion for all things weather related.

[singlemom]

laughs....man, we really *do* need a like button for that and other great posts. I agree: all the twists and turns *are* fascinating (even while I'm shaking a fist in disgust). I'm still holding out a tiny glimmer of hope. If not, we can always hope for September\October.

[sambucol]

Sprinklers and a/c with power! At least we have this in the 100 degree heat while those folks in Florida will be dealing with wind, rain and probably no power when its all done.

Think folks it is only 6/24 we 3 to 4 more months of this!!!!!!

Good point!

[Andrew]

System is currently stalled. Lets see what direction it takes from here.

Here is all the players involved:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

[sambucol]

System is currently stalled. Lets see what direction it takes from here.

Here is all the players involved:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Why is it stalled, and because of the stall does that indicate a shift more to the west in track?

[Scott747]

I agree how can so many models get it wrong,especially the (as the NHC says the euro a good performing model)get it wrong and the GFS an outlier end up being right.This really concerns me going into the remainder of the season.

Keep in mind that the models did begin changing yesterday. I mentioned how the 18z runs started showing a trend to the right that came full circle with the 0z Euro run. In between that we had the NHC disco (by Stewart) and 10 pm advisory that at that time still had the track towards the lower/mid Texas coast. Unfortunately for the NHC they went with what at the time was the more confident westward track.

In the meantime there was the continuing and significant shift with the models after that advisory was put out along with what was the beginning of a more NE influence with the system. By the time that 4am disco came out it was becoming obvious that a sizable shift was incoming. As noted the NHC doesn't like making wide ranging shifts from one forecast to another and we even debated last night how much it would end up being. Pasch stayed conservative but he did make specific mention of the significant change with the 0z Euro model which eventually lead to even a further shift to the right with the next advisory and Avila disco.

[Andrew]

System is currently stalled. Lets see what direction it takes from here.

Here is all the players involved:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Why is it stalled, and because of the stall does that indicate a shift more to the west in track?

it is stalled due to ridging up north and has really been that way for the last couple of days. Keep in mind it has barely been moving around. Too early to tell what it does. Could get caught by the trough or miss it. It will be close either way.

[sambucol]

System is currently stalled. Lets see what direction it takes from here.

Here is all the players involved:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Why is it stalled, and because of the stall does that indicate a shift more to the west in track?

it is stalled due to ridging up north and has really been that way for the last couple of days. Keep in mind it has barely been moving around. Too early to tell what it does. Could get caught by the trough or miss it. It will be close either way.

Oh. So this is the trough the Euro saw it missing when it had Debby heading our way?

[Andrew]

System is currently stalled. Lets see what direction it takes from here.

Here is all the players involved:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Why is it stalled, and because of the stall does that indicate a shift more to the west in track?

it is stalled due to ridging up north and has really been that way for the last couple of days. Keep in mind it has barely been moving around. Too early to tell what it does. Could get caught by the trough or miss it. It will be close either way.

Oh. So this is the trough the Euro saw it missing when it had Debby heading our way?[/quote]

Correct. But also to note if it does miss the trough it could still find the weakness so a lot of questions still unanswered. Just keep an eye out for things and changes.

[skidog38]

sheer going away?

[djmike]

Umm, something is happening? huh? I think it stalled at the fork in the road. East or west? Hmmmm....

[cisa]

This may a bit off topic, but is there anything else our there of any interest?

Actually there may be. Somewhere around the very end of the month of June/first week of July. But we'll save that for a later date and probably begin talking about it in a day or two when we fully get Debby out of our hair...

Thanks srain. You always help me out.

[cisa]

Hi folks. This may be a stupid question as I dont know how to read these models that well, but what about the couple of models that still show extreme SETX/SWLA (I think HWRF and BAM)? Do we just disregard those? Thanks! Trying to learn here...

BAM-definitely disregard it.
HWRF-not too reliable either. Not enough to even give a second thought if the model run still showed SE TX as a landfall.

Ah. I see....Thanks Belmer. I was holding on to that "last" little bit of hope for some rain here in Tx. I guess it's best I just let 'er go....Gosh it's soooo hard to break up! Goodbye little Debbie!

Breaking up is hard to do.

[srainhoutx]

sheer going away?

Yes it is relaxing. For those that have been following visible imagery, there were wispy cirrus blow offs SW of Debby near the Yucatan. That 'blow off to the N' has ceased as the weak upper low continues to slide away toward the Bay of Campeche. Remember that possible outflow channel developing to the N of Debby as the trough passes and the ridge builds over it. Those processes may well be under way.

[cisa]

As frustrating as the back and forth of the models might be, most of the folks will never really notice. They'll turn on their TV tonight and watch the weather. This is what's interesting for me is trying to learn how Mother Nature ticks which we will never do, but it"s fun trying. Getting mad at the ProMets is like getting mad at the Astros while sitting in the stands. You can do it, but it takes the fun out of it and really, no one wants to get it right more than the pros because that's what the studied so hard to become a pro for. Hats off to the Pros. Thanks for taking us along for the ride.