Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1200Z 27.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ticka1]

Srainhoutx - when do you think watches/warnings wil be up for Texas or will we have to wait and see if Debby makes it this far west?

[srainhoutx]

062420112 7 AM Debby 120117W5_NL_sm.gif

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx - when do you think watches/warnings wil be up for Texas or will we have to wait and see if Debby makes it this far west?

Not before tomorrow, if they are extended W. I suspect the NHC would like to see a couple for cycles of computer and RECON data before making any wholesale changes.

[tireman4]

I agree with Srain. I would see another round of runs until I would do anything. My best guess, and this is only a guess would be Sunday night or Monday before they make a call on anything. Our pro mets may have something to add on that count.

[Rip76]

I knew it

(brings out sprinklers)...

[srainhoutx]

I know there was some concern yesterday about the upper low near Sabine Pass and how that would affect Debby. That feature is lingering, but trending weaker and sliding S toward the Bay of Campeche this morning. While Debby remains sheared, upper level conditions do appear to be improving during the next 48 hours and an outflow channel may well extend further W to the N of Debby in the upper levels. The center remains rather broad and exposed and that will not change until mid/upper level wind shear relaxes. As you can see, Debby is not moving very fast at all and that continued slow motions is the fly in the ointment. Even Forecaster Avila kept the W trend and even a tad more strengthening as Debby meanders W along the Southern Louisiana Coast the next couple of days. I will add that until Debby makes landfall, we are not in the clear along the SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast.

Corrected Advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

CORRECTED TO MODIFY SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Upon a bit closer inspection as the first visible imagery becomes available, notice that convections is trending N of the center and showers/storms are now developing to the W of that broad center. That is an indication that wind shear is indeed relaxing and the Ridge is developing N of Debby. Those will be the key features to observe as the day progresses regarding the future movement of Debby.

[cisa]

Good morning guys. Is just woke up and I see the cone has changed and our thread title has changed. I read a couple of pages though and everyone doesn't seem totally sure it we're all clear. Can I get a little catch up this morning? Thank you.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 86°16'W (28.N 86.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 155 miles (249 km) to the SSW (194°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,366m (4,482ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 98 nautical miles (113 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 55kts (From the SW at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,828m (5,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,825m (5,988ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 12:40:00Z

[Andrew]

Upon a bit closer inspection as the first visible imagery becomes available, notice that convections is trending N of the center and showers/storms are now developing to the W of that broad center. That is an indication that wind shear is indeed relaxing and the Ridge is developing N of Debby. Those will be the key features to observe as the day progresses regarding the future movement of Debby.

Yea plus storms to the north have really warmed up a lot also. We should watch for convection to form over the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Karen]

Trying to catch up is this thing still heading twards Texas? Or is it going north? I saw someone post they new it and getting sprinklers out. Thanks

[biggerbyte]

Nothing has changed, folks. The uncertainty is still there, as are the variables, although the upper level low is starting to be less of a hindrance. One thing to keep in mind, is Debby could hug the coast heading west all the way to Texas. Said it many times before... With situations like this one, it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings. I, for one, am praying for at least some rain from Debby.

[gocuse22]

Trying to catch up is this thing still heading twards Texas? Or is it going north? I saw someone post they new it and getting sprinklers out. Thanks

Highly uncertain.

[gocuse22]

Kinda off topic ..but when i post at S2K...all i have to do is look at there Location ..and when it says "Florida" i know why there saying what they are... ..just wishcasting the storm to themselves .. So many people over there are making people think its a sure hit to Florida when its not..

[Rip76]

Karen, I just posted that out of lack of rain frustration.

Don't let your guard down until the storm is inland.

[Andrew]

Kinda off topic ..but when i post at S2K...all i have to do is look at there Location ..and when it says "Florida" i know why there saying what they are... ..just wishcasting the storm to themselves .. So many people over there are making people think its a sure hit to Florida when its not..

Yea one of the reasons I don't check over there but I feel to some degree most people have some sort of wish-casting in them even if it is minor. The key is how easily can you put it aside and look at the facts. I know due to love of weather in the past I have seen " wobbles" to the left or right that haven't been there.

As of right now this storm is one crazy storm to forecast. I finally am able to see the center which is a lot larger than I thought and it is pretty much stationary as of now. Where it goes from here will probably be the forecast make or bust for everyone.

[Karen]

Ok I have a portable building in my backyard that I think I am gonna to get secured down just in case. I feel like we are not going to have as much prep time as usual. Kind of like the Allison scenario a few years ago. I looked at NHC track and it looks farther north this morning. I am hoping for rain just not 20+ inches as we had in 79 with claudette

[weatherrabbit]

Kinda off topic ..but when i post at S2K...all i have to do is look at there Location ..and when it says "Florida" i know why there saying what they are... ..just wishcasting the storm to themselves .. So many people over there are making people think its a sure hit to Florida when its not..

I see the same thing! like to have it weaker and much needed rain! better then the 100+ temps were going to have

[Scott747]

There have been significant changes in the last 12 hourse in not only modeling but actual storm positioning/movement itself.

NHC is scrambling to catch up and expect another sizable shift with the next advisory.