Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[cisa]

Y'all humor me because I'm confused. Four hours ago everyone is convinced its coming to TX. A couple of models come in and everyone is convinced its not.i'm not being snarky, I just am trying to understand. Thanks for helping me figure this out.

Is not just a couple of models. The trend in the ones showing in favor for Texas began shifting eastward. We were waiting on the Euro to see if it agreed, in hopes that it did not, and give us some remaining glimmer of hope. The models will flip again. Everyone in Texas is just on edge, so these flips away from us are difficult to swallow.

I'm in your area as well and I was really hoping for some rain out of this. That's why I'm wanting to make sure I understand. I was kind of hoping we would get some of this. Oh and thanks to all of you guys. Tonight I've had a lot of questions and I appreciate your input.

[Scott747]

YEa but at the same time the Euro barely had enough of the trough to create a weakness to clip it to the north. If things don't go EXACTLY as planned it could easily shift west. If I was the NHC I would move it to the border, wait for the 12z and then make the big move. If you move it too much east and the models flip again then you really look foolish. Either way I am glad I don't have to write it.

True. Something towards the High Island breakpoint might not be a bad guess.

Pasch is on the desk.

[Texashawk]

For what it's worth, the LLC really looks like it's drifting W the last several frames, though that could also be due to the increased convection. We shall see.

[biggerbyte]

No problem.

My grass is, well it isn't. I've lost trees from last year. It just needs to rain, and I mean a deep soaking, prolonged rain. It is very difficult to be objective in weather forecasting when one has a personal agenda as well. Having to admit to yourself that it might not or will not happen is do difficult for everyone right now. The idea is to not panic during these flipping stages. We go through this with every system, every year. One would think we would learn to focus on the trends only. LOL!

Expect more headaches and late nights over the coming days.

[cisa]

I am the same. Hoping for some rain and trying to wish it here.

[Andrew]

For what it's worth, the LLC really looks like it's drifting W the last several frames, though that could also be due to the increased convection. We shall see.

That is what I am picking up too. We shall see if that continues into the morning.

[Scott747]

lol

Took good ol Bastardi all of one Euro run to start bringing up the NO doomsday scenario.

I told Steve I would play nice on this forum so I'll remain quiet.

[Texashawk]

Definite westward wobble now. Question is, does it continue or is it just a weeble wobble?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[Andrew]

lol

Took good ol Bastardi all of one Euro run to start bringing up the NO doomsday scenario.

I told Steve I would play nice on this forum so I'll remain quiet.

Haha if you want to release your frustration you can always pm what you were going to post

[Scott747]

Haha if you want to release your frustration you can always pm what you were going to post

I'll just go to American and rant like a lunatic.

For those interested. The next round of local discos from around the state should start rolling in fairly soon. I'm sure there will be plenty of interesting takes on what the models have shown us tonight.

Just periodically refresh - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion

[Scott747]

FWIW -

Despite all the changes tonight, for now Bastardi and the new company he works for hasn't changed their track thinking. I'm not familiar enough with them so I'm not sure if it's just because they cycle their forecasts like the NHC and just haven't changed it yet.

[Scott747]

As expected there has been a sizable shift with the latest track. Not near as much as we thought.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

[Scott747]

As noted before the NHC doesn't like to make drastic changes from forecast to forecast. You could sense that Pasch wanted to move it even further.

One tough forecast...

[srainhoutx]

Well I see the overnight computer guidance threw a curveball. Meandering Gulf storms that are highly sheared and very slow moving can do that. While the NAM (WRF/NMM) are not useful in tropical cyclones, it is interesting to note that very little movement with only a NW drift is noted for the entire 06Z 84 hour cycle. HGX took a conservative approach in addressing these changes in our local forecast and I suspect that is the prudent thing to do. As noted, the HWRF is still W, albeit further NE of previous runs, but does suggest at least S Central Louisiana could see TS conditions in the next couple of days. The influence of the Central US Ridge and a Western trough will be the major trend makers for the next several days. With additional RECON missions planned for today, expect further 'fine tuning' in the sensible weather over the next 36-72 hours. Oh and LOL at JB. You have to love the 'windshield wiper' effect of his bold calls that flipped faster than a wind shift with a Texas Blue Norther...

[srainhoutx]

Ive been partial to the GFS, but it isn't game over, as Raleigh Wx Euro ensemble means strongly suggests quite a few members that still like the TX option.

That they do, Ed. RECON is sampling Debby at this moment for those just waking up. First center pass in will be in the next 30-45 minutes...

[ticka1]

Rememeber we need to focus on the cone not the point/center of the storm.

[skidog38]

moving west now. next stop galveston.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:00Z

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1200 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 87.0W AT 24/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 87.0W AT 24/1200Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 87.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA