Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[sleetstorm]

The coldest cloud tops appear as though they have temperatures -90ºF to -100ºF in or extremely near the center of circulation.

[sambucol]

When does the NHC expect landfall as of tonight? I'm wondering about how much time we have to make preps beforehand. Thanks.

[cisa]

If this thing goes into Corpus what effect would the Houston/Galveston area receive?

Good question. I would like a clarification as well. Thanks in advance guys.

[jeff]

Would like to remind everyone not to focus on the center of the cone...as was not done so well this evening by some of the TV folks. DO NOT make those Ike and Rita mistakes again! A storm is not a point and the effects especially with this large of a system will be far reaching.

Jeff, I think it would be a good idea to update folks on the new surge~vs~SS scale information that was issued this year. If you have the time, that kind of input would valuable to those not familiar with the changes.

Simply put the SS scale is for wind only and surge is not predicted by that scale. Residents need to look at the forecasted surge values and not the category when making their decisions. Given the current forecast track and large circulation a lot of water is going to be moved toward the upper TX coast and this is going to likely be a prolonged event (2-3 days). The beaches are going to take a hard hit if this track holds...reminds me a lot of Frances in 1998...only stronger.

[jeff]

If this thing goes into Corpus what effect would the Houston/Galveston area receive?

Good question. I would like a clarification as well. Thanks in advance guys.

HGX area would be in the northern semi-ceircle or the "dirty side" of the system with strong onshore flow. Would expect at least TS winds near the coast and some pretty good water level rises (+5 feet would be likely). Of course the rain shield and bands will impact the entire upper coast and inland a good bit. Due to the very slow motion the effects will last for days not hours (Wed-Fri...maybe even into Saturday)

[jeff]

Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...

Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coast

[cisa]

Thank you Jeff. That was what I was thinking for all I had read here and then watched the news on a couple of local stations and the were list like a 20 percent chance of rain. Seemed strange to me.

[jeff]

When does the NHC expect landfall as of tonight? I'm wondering about how much time we have to make preps beforehand. Thanks.

They have landfall around 144 hours (or Friday PM). They may be a little on the slower end of things as the EURO is faster. Effects will reach the coast well before the center due to the size...and a landfall down the coast will result in impacts on the upper coast well before landfall due to the track. Should start to feel effects by Wednesday and then we will be dealing with it for a while (days)

[sambucol]

Thank you, Jeff.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The GFS is handling this system terribly

[perk]

Jeff thanks for the info especially the (CLARIFICATION) on the GFS and how this can affect the upper Texas coast.

[Andrew]

Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...

Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coast

Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.

[Scott747]

Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...

Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coast

Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.

The 'experimental' model (FIM) that was posted a few days ago and I linked too is set to replace the GFS. Not sure when though.

[Andrew]

Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...

Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coast

Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.

The 'experimental' model (FIM) that was posted a few days ago and I linked too is set to replace the GFS. Not sure when though.[/quote]

Yea I think Steve posted it also. Intensity looked strong (well for the time) but it sent it west also.

[djmike]

I was watching a Florida web chat as the GFS was rolling out...The Met doing the chat was sooo excited it still goes to FL and is acting like that everything with shift back east torwards FL and they will get this system...I'm shocked that prof Mets are riding this one model and not considering the fact that "obviously" the GFS is the outlier and having issues! NHC knows what they are doing! When NHC chose west even after so many GFS runs to the east, that confirmed to me that the GFS is VERY poorly handling this system! ...I agree, from here on out, I am disregarding the GFS. You know it will join EURO soon!

[Andrew]

CMC does go NE though. Catches the trough

[cisa]

What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?

[Andrew]

What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?

Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.

[Belmer]

What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?

Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.

When is the Euro expecting to come in? UKmet as well?

[Andrew]

What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?

Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.

When is the Euro expecting to come in? UKmet as well?

Around 1:30 for Euro Ukmet I forgot before that though.