Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[MontgomeryCoWx]

gut feel is that we get close to having a landfall here....

Unfortunately my gut says the landfall happens along the LA/Tx border which puts us on the wussy side of the storm.

[weatherguy425]

Srainhoutx, Can you give me the link to that spaghetti plot> I used to have it bookmarked but lost it and cant find it through Google.

Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx, Can you give me the link to that spaghetti plot> I used to have it bookmarked but lost it and cant find it through Google.

Thanks!

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1615Z
D. 25.5N 888.5W
E. 23/1715Z TO 23/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What is that telling us srain? They aren't taking a trip out there?

[srainhoutx]

What is that telling us srain? They aren't taking a trip out there?

Not today. 96L is not organzined enough to warrant the trip.

[singlemom]

I'm trying to catch up on model runs from last night, and I'm confused. Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like just about every other model (of note) besides the GFS does some variation of *towards* the Florida panhandle then bounces along the coast, then West to our direction or Brownsville. Yet, the spaghetti models plots show more tracks towards and across Florida and out to sea. Am I missing something?

[singlemom]

Never mind....this explains it:

MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: SOUTHEAST-SHIFTED 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TRACK SHAPE/BELOW AVERAGE FOR
PROGRESSION/SPEED

THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO DRAG THIS CYCLONE TOWARDS TAMPA...USING A
PAIR OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES/QPF BOMBS TO LURE ITS
CENTER NORTHEASTWARD...IMPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FOR THREE
DAYS NOW. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A BUILDING WARM CORE
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SECOND WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SLIGHT BREAK AT 500/700 HPA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE COL POINT IN THE STEERING PATTERN
IS NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WOULD FORCE A
SYSTEM IN THE GULF TO STEER NORTH AND ULTIMATELY WEST UNDER THE
PLAINS RIDGE DURING THE LATE SHORT RANGE/MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IDEA.

HOWEVER...ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE LOW COULD EASILY ACCELERATE
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST SIMILAR TO CLAUDETTE IN 2003. THE ONLY OTHER
ANALOGS TO THIS TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-TYPE TRACK ARE OCTOBER
1938 AND JUNE 1913. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO WAVER
EACH DAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD SEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE LOWER THAN NORMAL SPREAD WAS SEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SUCH VARIABILITY...IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW/WHEN TO START ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION. THE HURRICANE
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE GFS MIRRORS THE GFS...WHICH INCREASES THE
APPARENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A
SOUTHEAST-SHIFTED 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE LARGE SPREAD WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
ITS ULTIMATE WESTWARD PROGRESSION/SPEED. THIS KEEPS GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE. CONSULT THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ FOR ITS CURRENT
STATUS.

[Andrew]

I'm trying to catch up on model runs from last night, and I'm confused. Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like just about every other model (of note) besides the GFS does some variation of *towards* the Florida panhandle then bounces along the coast, then West to our direction or Brownsville. Yet, the spaghetti models plots show more tracks towards and across Florida and out to sea. Am I missing something?

While some models do send it towards Florida, those models are not as trusted especially so close to the gulf when the models like the BAMM are used for deep water analysis if I am not mistaken. Either way we have multiple possibilities where this will go. With the lack of development right now I am leaning towards the west part of the gulf because it will be harder for the trough to pick it up. Still not much organization.

[srainhoutx]

Never mind....this explains it:

The HPC has provided some awesome detailed discussions regarding this very complex and complicated monsoonal trough gyre that has been modeled for well over a week. I will add the 12Z Canadian continues to advertise exactly what the HPC is mentioning. Also, it is my hunch that this disturbance will likely not develop until Monday at the earliest. Once the trough passes off to the E and the Central US Ridge builds, conditions are likely to become more conducive for development as the broad elongated low pressure system meanders in the Central Gulf S of Louisiana.

[Andrew]

Currently the 12z GFS still sends it to Florida as it gets caught in the trough and the cmc is looking like Texas but is coming in farther south this time.

EDIT TO ADD: CMC comes in right around freeport/ central (around SE Texas).

[tireman4]

Yeah, I was just about to mention the 12z CMC...hummm

[Andrew]

Yeah, I was just about to mention the 12z CMC...hummm

It seems to pick up the weakness in the middle of the country as the ridge shifts to the east. One concerning thing about this run is an approach from the SE would not be good. Depending on strength of course that could put us on the "dirty" side for a prolonged time so just another thing to watch in the ever expanding complicated forecast.

[srainhoutx]

Ukmet is W for yet another cycle...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles suggest westward ho...

[Alvin Girl]

gut feel is that we get close to having a landfall here....

Unfortunately my gut says the landfall happens along the LA/Tx border which puts us on the wussy side of the storm.

I too have a "gut" feeling that Debby will make a TX landfall. I had a "gut" feeling when Ike was first mentioned in Sept. 2008. Disappointed that the flight was canceled today - it's looking more and more like Debby is taking her time getting her act together. Is that why the models are trying to push her back to the West (the high over the plains will pick up the storm and push it toward TX)?

[Andrew]

EURO So far looks to miss the Trough again and ridging is building in nicely.

[srainhoutx]

Euro suggests a stalled strengthening storm at hour 72 about 300 miles S of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

Heading WSW toward the S Texas Coast at hour 96 and continues the strengthening process...

[Andrew]

Looks like the border