Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[jeff]

On top of that...does anyone know if Chris was a record for the furthest north hurricane this early in the season? Two June storms in any given year is very rare as the average is a June named system every other year.

[jasons2k]

This page is looking depressing with hardly anybody online for what could be Debby this weekend and what could head to Texas by early to mid next week. If models continue the westerly movement, I hope this forum shows a little bit more life by tomorrow...

It's a slow process and a lot of model uncertainty. I'm monitoring it closely but frankly it's not much different than last night, or even the night before. Once the center tightens up and the models lock, we get to the brass tax and there will be more substance to discuss. For now, it's still a guessing-game...

[jeff]

Even better since 1950-2012:

The mean number of named storms for June 19th is .56 with 2012 ahead of the mean by 2.44 or just inside the 3 standard deviations.

In the last 60 years the mean date of the first named storm was August 11. The 2012 season is ahead of the mean by 53 days.

[Ptarmigan]

Ok, so then four named storms before July 1 would be a record, beating 1887, 1959 and 1968!

Total Number Of Storms Including Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and ACE/Storm
1887 19/11/2 182 9.6
1959 11/7/2 77 7.0
1968 8/4/0 35 4.4

Average
13/7/1

Median
11/7/2

ACE Average
98

ACE Median
77

ACE/Storm Average
7

ACE/Storm Median
7

Two of the season saw a Texas landfall.
1959-Hurricane Debra
1968-Tropical Storm Candy

At this point, we could see a landfall this season.

I think 1887 had more major hurricanes.

[Ptarmigan]

On top of that...does anyone know if Chris was a record for the furthest north hurricane this early in the season? Two June storms in any given year is very rare as the average is a June named system every other year.

Chris is the second northern most hurricane to form since Tropical Storm Alberto in 1988. Chris looks to be the northernmost hurricane to form early in the season.

It is very possible tropical storms have formed further north and in June, but this is before satellites existed.

[weatherguy425]

ECMWF isn't out but other tropical models suggest that the flip-flopping continues...

Tried to attach an image, but I guess the file was too big, here's the URL...

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

[Belmer]

Tim Heller just posted this on facebook:

"New GFS data no longer showing Florida landfall. GFS now indicating storm could stall over the Gulf and drift westward next week. This is going to be a loooong weekend."

I am so happy to hear that

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Canadian suggests a SW Louisiana/SE Texas threat again during the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Ukmet is S of Vermillion Bay by hour 72.

[Belmer]

I really need to get some shut eye since I have to wake up so early tomorrow morning, but I would like to see the European model before that. C'mon European!!! Show yourself

Plus, I don't think I'll be getting very much sleep here soon...

[srainhoutx]

NHC maintains 70% with the 1:00 AM CDT Update.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFDL takes a weak elongated broad low toward Pensicola and never develops 96L while the HWRF brings a TS toward New Orleans and stalls before heading W to a point S of Vermillion Bay with 50kt winds and strengthening at the end of the run.

[Andrew]

CMC pic:

BTW GFS just stalls it south of Pensacola the whole run so not worth posting a picture.

[Andrew]

GFDL and HWRF

slp21.png

slp7.png

[Andrew]

Euro looks to miss the trof and heading west prob

EDIT TO ADD PROB MEXICO OR SOUTH TEXAS

00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif

00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to watch the Western trough developing the middle of next week. The operational guidance trends of a stalling weak system before heading W and strengthening under the Central US ridge is worrisome for Texas and Louisiana. Time for some shut eye...

Edit to add: HPC Diagnostic Update for the 00Z suite suggesting a Euro solution but low confidence.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

96L remains unorganized. The surface low N of the Yucatan and the 500mb vort which is displaced to the E over the Yucatan Channel will need to become vertically stacked before any real development.

[Belmer]

Today should be a busy day on this forum and in the weather department. Models still in a little bit of a disagreement. Most of the reliable models take this potential storm anywhere from Brownsville, TX to New Orleans, LA. We'll see what the new models bring in later this morning into early this afternoon.

Hopefully the Hurricane Hunters can find something on this storm later this afternoon so we will have a better take on what this storm is going to do. They will report back around 4:00pm.

Hope to see a lot of discussions on here today, they make the day go by fast!

[srainhoutx]

The surface low is very evident on the early morning zoomed visible imagery just N of the Yucatan...