June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[mckinne63]

It's raining in Stafford now. Can hear some thunder in the background. It's not very windy though. What's interesting is that I can see clear skies looking out my window.

[weatherguy425]

It seems that recent model runs (including NAM,GFS) have backed off on Mon-Wed rain chances, keeping the majority of the precipitation offshore.

[mckinne63]

Wow! It's really coming down now. Wish I had a rain gauge, but we are getting a good soaking.

[srainhoutx]

I just picked up a quick 1/2 inch of tropical downpour rain in NW Harris County...



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1109 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TXC157-161815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0061.120616T1612Z-120616T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-
1112 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1106 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST FORT BEND
COUNTY. 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN BETWEEN FRESNO AND MISSOURI
CITY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
STORMS WEAKEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...TOWN WEST...AND FRESNO.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ213-161730-
HARRIS TX-
1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1159 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KATY...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TXZ237-161800-
BRAZORIA TX-
1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DANBURY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
ANGLETON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANGLETON...RICHWOOD...DANBURY...AND LAKE JACKSON.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
127 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TXZ199-213-161845-
HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
127 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF JERSEY VILLAGE... MOVING WEST
AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

[CAK]

Two house fires from lightning in Woodstream division of Kingwood... got a bit nasty here!

[tireman4]

I am hearing thunder, and as I watch the radar, this is bearing the sound out. Very slow moving storm. I wonder if it well hold up as it gets closer to us.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in W Liberty/Montgomery/San Jacinto and Walker Counties heads up. These storms are capable of dropping very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Also frequent lightning can be expected. As for early next week into next weekend, all eyes will be on the Tropics with a easterly wave Monday into Tuesday and a possible developing tropical low in the Bay of Campeche. Stay Tuned!

Houston/Galveston:

THE MAIN IDEA FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HOLDS TRUE IN THIS ONE...
THAT OF A NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING WEST
AND AFFECTING OUR MARINE AND SOUTHERN FA COUNTIES FROM AS EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN MESSAGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGAIN ALL POINTING TO AN EARLY WEEK
HEIGHT WEAKNESS CHANNEL MOVING RIGHT OVER US FROM THE NW`ERN
GULF...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE SOUTH & EAST FA POPS TO
LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL
ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE
AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE
GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED
THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM
THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A
WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH
PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK.

Austin/San Antonio:

MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN
TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES
IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW.


Corpus Christi:

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF IS PROGD TO MOVE W TO SW THROUGH THE EXTENDED BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AS
THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ON MON AND 20-40
PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN FCSTG EITHER A SFC TROF/OPEN WAVE OR A CLOSED LOW DVLPG IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT MOVES N TO NE INITIALLY BY MID WEEK. THEN
THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM
AS A BROAD LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH BRINGS MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP TO S TX. IF THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME A CLOSED LOW...THE
DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE IF S TX SEES ABUNDANT RAINFALL OR NO
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS THE REASONING FOR LEAVING POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH FINE TUNING EXPECTED AS TIME
PROGRESSES. AS FOR WINDS...REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DVLPS INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OR JUST REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...AM EXPECTING A NE
DIRECTION TO DVLP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DID NOT GO AS STRONG
AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT DID INCREASE SEAS BY ONE
TO TWO FEET DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.

[jasons2k]

Looks like the old outflow the earlier Sugar Land/Katy/Jersey Village storms has expanded and cooled us off some up here. The big storms to the east are fizzling away on its southern side as it encounters the more stable air.

[srainhoutx]

Today appears to be a drier day, the 'calm before the storm' so to speak. PW's have decreased to near 1.4/1.5, so isolated showers seem most likely. Those PW's increase rapidly to 2.0+ on Monday with the approaching mid/upper level disturbance currently S of Louisiana. That feature will move W toward the Texas Coast Monday-Wednesday. With deep tropical moisture in abundance, it would be difficult to not see rainfall across the area with heavy tropical showers/storms daily.

All eyes the turn to the Bay of Campeche. Guidance has been very suggestive on developing a broad low pressure within the monsoonal trough for many days. The remnants of Carlotta along with an area of disturbed weather moving out of the Western Caribbean combined with relaxing wind shear and falling pressures as well as favorable upper air pattern providing for anticyclonic out flow are the ingredients needed in a recipe to develop a tropical disturbance. With deep tropical moisture in place and such a broad surface low slowly meandering N to NNW out of the SW Gulf, daily long fetch E to SE flow will keep rainfall in the forecast most if not all of the upcoming work week. What will need to be monitored is the potential for heavy rainfall. The favored areas would be our Coastal Counties and inland to near the I-10 Corridor. We will need to watch future trends for any strengthening or deepening development of this tropical low next week. At this time a broad surface low is depicted within the monsoonal trough with deep tropical moisture moving inland along and E of the low pressure center which appears to be slow to move and finally slowly slide inland in Deep S Texas/NE Mexico later next weekend/early in the week of the 25th. Interests from Tampico to Vermillion Bay should monitor any future development throughout the coming week.

06172012 12Z HPC 5 Day QPF p120i12.gif

06172012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemblep120240.gif

[jasons2k]

I've been waiting almost two years for a pattern like this. Bring it.

[weatherguy425]

Models seem to be having trouble with the Monday through Wednesday disturbance. Will most of the rain stay offshore and in Louisiana, or will we get some decent rain?
Latest NAM says nada, guess we'll see...
[img]
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false[/img]

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

        ...2012 REMAINS THE WARMEST YEAR TO DATE ON
                 RECORD FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS OFF TO IT`S WARMEST START IN RECORDED
WEATHER HISTORY. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH JUNE 15TH IS
CURRENTLY 69.6 DEGREES. THE SECOND WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD (THROUGH
JUNE 15TH) WAS BACK IN 1911 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. ALL FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES ARE OFF TO THEIR
WARMEST STARTS IN RECORDED WEATHER HISTORY - SEE BELOW:

                      YEAR TO DATE TEMPERATURE

         CITY OF      HOUSTON     CITY OF      COLLEGE
         HOUSTON      HOBBY       GALVESTON    STATION

         69.6 2012    69.9 2012   70.7 2012    68.1 2012
         69.1 1911    69.0 2000   69.3 2006    67.9 1911

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN HOUSTON YESTERDAY SATURDAY JUNE 16TH WAS
ONLY 86 DEGREES. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE SINCE MAY 20TH THAT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS FAILED TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES AND
WAS ALSO THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE MAY 15TH. LAST
YEAR...THERE WERE ONLY TWO DAYS (JUNE - AUGUST) IN WHICH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE CONTRAST
BETWEEN 2011 AND 2012 COULD NOT BE MORE STARK. HERE ARE A FEW A
NUMBERS TO WOW YOUR FRIENDS WITH:

THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED 31 DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES
SINCE MAY 1ST. THIS IS ACTUALLY THE SAME NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS
IN 2011. HOWEVER...THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 95 DEGREES TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THERE WERE 20 DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES IN 2011 COMPARED TO ONLY
EIGHT DAYS IN 2012. THERE WERE ALSO FOUR DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN 2011 BY JUNE
15TH COMPARED TO ZERO 100 DEGREE DAYS THIS YEAR. IN 2011...THE
CITY OF HOUSTON RECORDED IT`S EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY IN CITY
HISTORY AND ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE.
THERE WERE NINE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MAY 1ST AND JUNE
15TH IN 2011 AND ZERO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE SAME
PERIOD IN 2012. HOUSTON HOBBY AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE YET TO
RECORD A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD THIS YEAR.THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS
ONLY RECORDED ONE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD IN ALL OF 2012 (JANUARY
20TH) WHICH MAKES THE WARM START TO THE YEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE.

                       CITY OF HOUSTON
                       MAY 1 - JUNE 15

       90 DEGREE DAYS   95 DEGREE DAYS   100 DEGREE DAYS

2011        31               20                 4
2012        31                8                 0

                       COLLEGE STATION
                       MAY 1 - JUNE 15

       90 DEGREE DAYS   95 DEGREE DAYS   100 DEGREE DAYS

2011        32               24                 4
2012        30                5                 0

BELOW ARE THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR FIRST ORDER
CLIMATE SITES FOR MAY AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE FOR 2011 AND
2012...RAINFALL BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 15TH AND YEAR TO DATE
RAINFALL:

                             CITY OF HOUSTON

                       MAY     JUNE     RAIN   YTD

2011                   89.1    98.2     0.44    7.07
2012                   88.6    94.3     4.35   25.82


                          HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT

                       MAY     JUNE     RAIN   YTD

2011                   87.7    96.5     0.19    5.41
2012                   87.0    92.1     8.76   28.01


                              COLLEGE STATION

                       MAY     JUNE     RAIN   YTD

2011                   89.1    98.9     3.79    8.08
2012                   88.4    93.8     3.61   24.92


                             CITY OF GALVESTON

                       MAY     JUNE     RAIN   YTD

2011                   84.4    91.4     0.49    7.84
2012                   85.1    88.5     6.65   24.16

[weatherguy425]

Yeah, short-term RAP looks much more optimistic as well.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, short-term RAP looks much more optimistic as well.

HPC suggests sticking to the SREF...



...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA...

PREFERENCE: SREF MEAN

TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND INTERNAL
DYNAMICS/PHYSICS OF THIS SMALL AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM...RECOMMEND AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SUCH AS THE SREF.

[Rip76]

That feature under Louisiana is looking curious....

Or still too much shear out there?

[srainhoutx]

That feature under Louisiana is looking curious....

Or still too much shear out there?

Yep. Too much shear. That's the easterly wave that will increase our rain chances tomorrow into Wednesday.

NHC:

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 25N94W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS MAINLY BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR ATLANTA GA
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NE GULF WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROUGH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS TONIGHT. FRESH ELY WINDS
ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS NEAR THE COAST OF
YUCATAN DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SW WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
ENTERS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN
CONTINUES NW TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SW GULF AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH

[Rip76]

Yeah, i've been following it the last few days.
It just seems to have a little more convection than it's previously had.