June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1039 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

TXC469-071830-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FA.Y.0018.120607T1539Z-120607T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VICTORIA TX-
1039 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1031 AM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
RADAR INDICATING RAIN AMOUNTS OF OF 2 TO 2 AND 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN
PER HOUR FALLING FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM CELL. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ROADWAYS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1103 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

TXC123-071730-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0064.120607T1603Z-120607T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DEWITT-
1103 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1056 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
AND ONE HALF TO 3 AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE
PAST HOUR ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
HIGHWAY 77/183 AND FM 240. AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[jasons2k]

The latest AFD is not nearly as encouraging (lowered POPS), but I do have some hope.
Things I see in our favor:
- The 'clear patch' on satellite is over the Houston area. We're getting the most sun
- Because of the most sun, it's already approaching 90F across the area
- Plenty of moisture and leftover boundaries to work with

Things I see working against us:
- The main outflow is still sitting south/SW of us - must of the cumulus field is along our S/W of this line
- Convection to the north is fizzling
- Is the ULL moving more East now?

Anyway, here is the AFD:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE TONED/EVENED OUT POPS ACROSS SE TX FOR THIS AFTN. MCS TO THE
NW HAS ALL BUT FIZZLED OUT...AS WITH ALL THE PCPN THAT WAS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER FROM THESE TRENDS WE CAN INFER THAT THE
AIRMASS OVER THE CWA IS RATHER MOIST (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN/SWRN
LOCATIONS) AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN/WRN
LOCATIONS. SO SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTN/EVE COULD HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT TSRAS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. 41

[weatherguy425]

Hard to believe such a promising event has delivered so little. Even though things looked good this morning, I'm again starting to loose hope. Even if storms are able to fire along outflow boundaries like yesterday, they tend to have trouble sustaining themselves over larger areas of real estate, and short range models seem to like area to the southwest of Houston. Also, the NAM...which was wet into Saturday now shifts the bulk of the rain with associated disturbance well east of here into Louisiana. I SURE HOPE I'M WRONG THOUGH.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not too worried. FWD stated in their update that the 5h low is drifting S along the I-35 Corridor and with boundaries around as well as potential additional nocturnal activity ahead, this isn't a bust just yet...

[weatherguy425]

Sure hope so! At least some areas are receiving rain, better than 105 and endless sunshine. Models also hinting at a very moist return flow setting up in about a week, plus the potential of another stalling cold front mid next week.

[srainhoutx]

HPC suggests it's not a bust just yet...QPF Update for Friday into Saturday just issued...

[weatherguy425]

Cu field growing all across the area with enhancement along a boundary from east of Huntsville through the Montgomery area, down to near Columbus. Showers beginning to pop up as well. Here is to hoping!

[srainhoutx]

Yep. CU field is developing rapidly in NW Harris County. Another hour or so and just perhaps we'll see some rainfall...

Edit to add: There is a boundary lying from Northern Ft Bend County extending ENE into Liberty County

[weatherguy425]

Remnants of stalled frontal boundary is becoming very evident of radar, as well as an outflow boundary moving south and slowing just north and west of a line from Bryan to Huntsville, as well as the boundary that Steve mentioned from Victoria on towards Liberty County. Temperatures in the low 90's now, c'mon momma nature.

[Ptarmigan]

Southeast Texas has relapsed into a drought again.

[jasons2k]

Southeast Texas has relapsed into a drought again.

Yeah, that's the big news today, but many of us have been preaching this for awhile now. Every day gets markedly worse up in Montgomery County - we need good rains with this system - now - or we're not going to climb-out this summer I fear. I'd feel better about today if the storms popping up-north would sustain themselves. Geesh, does it have the be this difficult just to get some rain??

[weatherguy425]

Seabreeze boundary beginning to move inland...not sure why activity is having so much trouble sustaining itself

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My house is getting dumped on right now in Montgomery County and the storm isn't moving hardly at all.

[jasons2k]

I am downtown and see TCU every which way - all directions - moreso N and NW. Maybe the northside will get lucky today.

Edit: Storms in Montgomery near Conroe generating a gust front/outflow that is now quickly pushing south. New cell near IAH. Gonna be an interesting couple of hours...

Edit #2: Thunder downtown...

[weatherguy425]

Cell in eastern Montgomery county appears to be pushing severe limits, though they're pulsing so the storm may not be strong for very long.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to note the FWD and EWX are lowering rain chances while HGX and LCH are hinting the best is yet to come. The mid level low is clearly dropping SSE very slowly and elongating somewhat. The HiRes models are picking up on the developing showers/storms and also suggesting further development to our E near Beaumont/Lake Charles and heading WSW. Also of note is a hint of heavier rainfall during the overnight hours near Fayette/Colorado Counties and a bit E. These short term meso models also suggest further development tomorrow along and S of the I-10 Corridor as the mid level disturbance in the Gulf slowly creeps N. I will caution that guidance has been and will likely continue to be below par with all the meso feature and boundaries across the region. Fingers crossed we can squeeze an inch or two out of all the mess before we heat up and return to a dry summertime pattern next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TSRA STARTING TO POP ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN BUT COVERAGE THUS FAR
HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY
HELP TO INCREASE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. OF SOME CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...ONE LINE ON
A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO THE 1-10 CORRIDOR MAY COLLIDE WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE MODELS NOT REALLY HANDLING THINGS ALL THAT WELL AS THEY
APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PCPN COVERAGE (AND PERHAPS
OFF WITH THE TIMING). HOWEVER STILL HARD TO IGNORE THE STRONG UP-
PER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS ALONG
WITH ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF SHOULD MAKE FOR DECENT COVER-
AGE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW. WILL BACK OFF ON THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT/TOMORROW. THIS WETTER PATTERN MAY
STICK AROUND UNTIL SAT. FLAT RIDGING TO HELP DRY THINGS OUT SUN.

[weatherguy425]

Srainhoutx, I know we're not even through this "event" yet... But what do you feel about the front increasing rain chances locally again next week? and do you think Late June into July may see a return of tropical moisture?

[rnmm]

We haven't seen any rain on the coast, yet. Are we supposed to get any this far down?

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx, I know we're not even through this "event" yet... But what do you feel about the front increasing rain chances locally again next week? and do you think Late June into July may see a return of tropical moisture?

Upper ridge looks to build back in across Texas next week. What I would keep an eye on is around the 20th or so, +/- a couple of days as a possible future Hurricane Carlotta makes landfall along the Mexican Riviera and the MJO become a bit more active. More on those possibilities later.