May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

While it is a long way out in model world, the 00Z Euro is suggesting some left over energy from a future EPAC Hurricane Bud may settle into the Bay Of Campeche as we head into early next week. Something to watch as the GFS is sniffing a somewhat similar scenario. We will see.

Meanwhile, some isolated strong storms may not be out of the question later today into tomorrow as a boundary has settled across the region. As the sea breeze becomes active this afternoon, we could see some rainfall/storms with gusty winds.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After the big rains a week ago the weather has been quite across the region.



Combination of slightly increased moisture and a SW sagging boundary along with a short wave advancing across NE TX in the NW flow aloft may support a round of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms across mainly the northern and eastern sections of SE TX today. Pattern set up is more favorable of July than mid May with ridging out west of the region placing SE TX in a NNW flow aloft this morning. While the air mass aloft is fairly dry, there appears to be enough moisture to provide at least a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening as shown by several of the high resolution meso models. Storms that develop will likely produce good outflow winds with the dry mid level air which will in turn help push activity deeper into the region. Additionally the local seabreeze will be advancing inland and could possibly meet with incoming outflow boundaries from the NNE to help produce more thunderstorms near/south of I-10. Some threat of some really gusty winds given the mid level dry layer and brief heavy rainfall.



May see additional slim chances for storms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons along the seabreeze boundary as it makes its daily push inland.



Toward the end of the week into next weekend, the ridge aloft over the state will begin to break down as a strong trough advances into the western US. This will help create a weakness in the height field over TX and a plume of tropical moisture looks to advect into the region from the Gulf supporting afternoon shower and thunderstorm development along possibly an active seabreeze if the pressure gradient is not too strong over the region.



Other item to watch will be current TD # 2 in the eastern Pacific as global and hurricane forecasting models are taking this system NW then N into the SW Mexican coast by the end of the week as the system is captured by the trough digging into the western US. This is a fairly large tropical cyclone and its moisture evelope will be larger than average. The current track is not a classic track for significant moisture advection into TX as I would like to see the system impact more northward along the Mexican coast to ensure better transport toward TX, however with the trough advancing in from the west near the same time it is still possible for some of this deep mid and high level moisture to be brought northward over at least eastern TX by the end of next weekend….and this could enhance rainfall over the area. Still lots of time to watch and fine tune especially since the latest guidance tracks have shifted westward and now NHC lies near the eastern edge of the guidance cluster.



NHC Forecast Track with Error Cone:

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Air mass is becoming increasingly hot and unstable across the region early this afternoon.



Visible satellite images show an extensive cumulus field developing from Lake Charles to near Waco along a stalled frontal boundary. Satellite also shows a decent SE moving short wave over NW TX. Recent radar shows thunderstorm formation over San Jacinto County and suspect with a few more hours of intense heating more storms will develop as the air mass is uncapped and fairly unstable. Activity should move SE to S in the steering flow with the main threats being gusty winds…a few cell may briefly reach severe levels. Decent outflow boundaries from upstream activity over our northern counties may reach into the central and coastal counties this evening and collide with the seabreeze moving inland off the Gulf helping to continue storms into the mid to late evening hours. Not overly confident on widespread coverage, in fact the coverage is likely to be scattered to isolated, but current satellite trends suggest more activity will be possible this afternoon than yesterday.

[jasons2k]

The line is filling-in to the N and NW as well, from Huntsville to Madisonville, and moving south. It's only 2:30 too - we might just get lucky this time.

[Katdaddy]

And so it begins. These isolated storms will make some beautfil sights and photos. Not expecting much coverage but should yield some nice TCUs.....and it will make Ed happy.

[rnmm]

And I was expecting boredome today. Still better than even chance of no rain for the freshly planted Bermuda, but GLS had a windshift last couple of hours, temps dropped a tad, dewpoints climbed into the 70s, and that boundary can be seen by squinting at the radar.




Second time today I added an "e" to boredom....

That's only because you are overly excited about the rain chances!!!! I don't blame you so here's to you and your Bermuda........LET IT RAIN, LET IT RAIN, LET IT RAIN!!

[gocuse22]

Not much to talk about besides ...hot hot hot

[Rip76]

Curious,
If Bud follows the forcasted path and does turn back to the NE, would that bring some rain here to the Houston area?

[gocuse22]

Curious,
If Bud follows the forcasted path and does turn back to the NE, would that bring some rain here to the Houston area?

Doubt it, Bud will curve back off to the south before hitting Mexico.

[gocuse22]

Next chance of rain is the last day of May, a slight chance of storms.

[srainhoutx]

As we head into a long holiday weekend, my thoughts turn to those that have served and died to provide for our Freedom. May everyone have a safe Memorial Day Weekend.

[sleetstorm]

Let us be truly thankful to all of the men & women in the different parts of the military who have sacrificed their lives in order to ensure the safety, freedoms, & peace that everyone of us relishes in this nation.

[srainhoutx]

The SPC has a Slight Risk for Severe Storms on tap for portions of SE Texas for Thursday as the frontal boundary nears our area. A Moderate Risk has been issued further to our NW for Wednesday. I know the Dr. Forbes and the TWC Severe Weather Team are out chasing as well as other severe weather chasers for those that follow. Some of our friends from Americanwx are out chasing as well...

http://www.ustornadoes.com/

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... e__st__560

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Chances for needed rainfall may return to the area by Thursday.



Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area…as has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds. Ridging aloft will break down slightly by Thursday as a trough ejects into the upper Midwest allowing a late season cold front to move into the region. Forecast models are in decent agreement on this boundary moving through SE TX late Thursday into early Friday. Air mass over the area will become strongly unstable by Thursday afternoon with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg as surface temperatures warm into the lower 90’s. Question is to what degree does the capping in the mid levels weaken as ridging aloft extending northward from MX and the Gulf must relax some allowing the mid levels to cool. Suspect the ridging aloft will weaken enough especially north of I-10 to allow storms to develop along the SE moving cold front during peaking heating Thursday afternoon. SPC has a large portion of the area outlooked for severe weather on Thursday, but feel the greatest threats will be north of I-10. Still time to watch and get the details nailed down, but some area will hopefully see some needed rainfall especially north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture….we do not want to get back into a pattern anywhere close to last summer!



Front looks like it will actually push off the coast allowing drier air to filter into the region with lows falling into the lower to mid 60’s for Saturday morning…very nice for early June. Front washes out and moisture returns by late in the weekend into early next week. With surface winds on the lower side compared to late, and ridging aloft not forecast to be as strong, the seabreeze front may be able to spark a few isolated to scattered storms by early next week as we settle into a more typical summer pattern along the NW Gulf coast.



Tropical:

Tropical Storm Beryl (the second of the Atlantic Basin season formed off the coast of NC Friday evening and moved SW around a ridge of high pressure centered over the OH valley to a late Sunday evening landfall over northeast FL. Beryl made a direct hit on the Jacksonville metro area with sustained winds of an impressive 70mph for a late May tropical cyclone. The Jacksonville radar clearly showed the system tightening just prior to landfall with a big band of heavy convection wrapping around the western side of the broad center…this is likely what helped transport a lot of wind energy aloft to the surface with a gust of 73mph recorded at Buck Island and numerous gust of 50-65mph across NE Fl and SE GA.



A few storm reports from Beryl landfall:



Midway , FL: 12.65 inches of rainfall

Daytona Beach, FL: 1 fatal, 19-yr old male carried 10 miles by wave action and rip currents

Haulover Canal: USAF wind tower # 421 measured 44mph wind gust

Patrick AFB: 48mph wind gust

Kennedy Space Center: USAF wind tower # 110 recorded 54mph wind gust

Playalinda Beach: 59mph

Ocala: 57mph

Harrietts Bluff, FL: Estimated winds to 65mph, pine trees downed

Jacksonville Beach, FL: storm surge and wave action rose to beach dune bases, wind gust to 56mph

Jacksonville Naval Air Station: 65mph wind gust

Buoy 6 miles E of Fernandina Beach: 15 foot seas

Fernandina Beach: storm surge of 3.47 feet.

Mayport, FL: sustained winds of 54mph gust to 63mph

Kings Bay Naval Sub Base: 65mph winds, wind gage failed.

Buck Island, FL: 73mph wind gust

Buoy, 42 miles ENE of St Augustine FL: sustained peak wind of 51mph gust to 67mph, pressure 994mb.



2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:



While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.



Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a bit too far out in NAM world for my liking, that model does suggest a fairly healthy short wave diving SE within the NW flow behind the frontal boundary suggesting a decent squall line to the N of DT Houston for Thursday evening.

[srainhoutx]

For those following the Moderate Risk tomorrow across the the Southern Plains, the SPC has expanded the Risk to include most of Oklahoma...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting the frontal boundary is a tad stronger and will move through late Thursday/early Friday morning while the GFS is a tad slower and not as strong with the front and is suggesting it will stall across the region. We will see.

12Z Euro...

12Z GFS...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292006Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
KS...WCNTRL OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY 2130Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR
CHILDRESS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX INTO WRN OK
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. WARMING SFC TEMPS ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE
CAPPING INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF WRN OK AND PARTS OF
SW KS WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AROUND 21Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FAVORED ZONE FOR INITIATION
WILL BE FROM GAGE OK ARCHING SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND BACK SWWD INTO NW
TX WHERE SEVERAL FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE BECOMING AGITATED ACCORDING
TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM SW KS INTO WRN
OK HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FROM 1 KM TO 4 KM AGL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS
OCCUR...A SEVERE MCS APPEARS LIKELY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE
SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL OK.

..BROYLES/BUNTING/WEISS.. 05/29/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

[srainhoutx]

For those that follow severe weather, some very strong storms tonight across OKC with tornado reports and many reports of very large hail up to grapefruit size being reported. Tomorrow may offer a significant event across parts of the Southern Plains as well.

[srainhoutx]

Early 00Z WRF/NMM data suggest a significant severe episode tomorrow for Central OK and possibly extending into the Dallas/FT Worth Metroplex tomorrow afternoon/evening where the SPC has a Moderate Risk forecast. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a High Risk in future updates. I will be tweeting and we have received permission from Chasers to post images should events warrant. Our turn locally may come late afternoon/evening on Thursday where the SPC has a Slight Risk currently. Stay Tuned!