May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...NEW RECORD FOR GREATEST DAILY RAINFALL AT HOBBY AIRPORT TODAY...

HOBBY AIRPORT RECEIVED A HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2.54 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE
GREATEST RAINFALL FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD RAINFALL WAS
1.94 INCHES IN 2004. THIS AMOUNT MAY INCREASE LATER TODAY DUE TO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX502 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

TXZ210>212-112300-
AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-WALLER TX-
502 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AUSTIN...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEALY...BELLVILLE AND SAN FELIPE.

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Colorado & Austin Counties

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Brazos, Grimes, & Madison Counties

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112218Z - 112345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.

A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15
MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD
PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG
ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY.
THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND
THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

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HGX cancels Warning for Colorado & Austin Counties

[jojotheidiotclown]

Any clue to when summer temps show up? I mean, I like comfortable evenings sitting on the porch, but this has been a strange spring. Are the temps going to warm up to the 90's anytime soon? I miss the real hot stuff.

Any chance this is going to be a summer without a summer?

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Austin, Fort Bend, & Waller Counties

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Grimes, Madison, & Walker Counties

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Jacinto, Trinity, & Walker Counties

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112251Z - 120015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND ANY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPARSE IN COVERAGE. THUS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION --
ALONG A GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VICTORIA TX
TO WEST OF MCALLEN TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES HAVE IMPACTED
REFUGIO AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALIGNS WITH AN
AXIS OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER
INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING. THIS AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY CAN SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IF CONVECTION CAN SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN INTO
STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS YIELDING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT COVERING THE REGION
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY. AS
SUCH...ANY SVR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE SUCH THAT A WW
IS NOT NEEDED.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

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Folks in Katy/Brookshire heads up. Spotters reporting rotating wall cloud along and just S of I-10 near Brookshire

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HGX issues Tornado Warning for Fort Bend, Harris [TX] till 7:30 PM CDT ...* AT 700 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD NEAR FULSHEAR. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

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Pro Met Chasers on wall cloud near Fulshear...

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/storm-cha ... cob-Wycoff

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 120028Z - 120100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH
SUPERCELLS NEAR WARM FRONT AND SFC TROUGH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

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HGX issues Tornado Warning for Fort Bend, Harris [TX] till 8:00 PM CDT ...* AT 723 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF FULSHEAR. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

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Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 274
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     740 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
     
     TORNADO WATCH 274 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-455-
     457-471-120700-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0274.120512T0040Z-120512T0700Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     BRAZORIA             CHAMBERS            FORT BEND           
     GALVESTON            HARDIN              HARRIS              
     JASPER               JEFFERSON           LIBERTY             
     MONTGOMERY           NEWTON              ORANGE              
     POLK                 SAN JACINTO         TRINITY             
     TYLER                WALKER              
     
     
     GMZ335-355-430-450-120700-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0274.120512T0040Z-120512T0700Z/
     
     CW 
     
     .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
     
     GALVESTON BAY 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     SABINE LAKE 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

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Folks near Jersey Village and HWY 290 near Beltway 8 heads up. Some rotation noted with that cell as well

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HGX continues Tornado Warning for Bt Bend & Harris Counties. Wall cloud on spotter webcam near Cinco Ranch heading E.

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HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ft Bend, Harris & Waller Counties