April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[tireman4]

Tor Con Numbers Today and Tomorrow..

Saturday April 14
IA west night - 8
IA central - 5
IA central, northeast night - 4 to 5
KS central - 8
KS east night - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN south, east-central night - 5
MO northwest night - 6
NE central, east - 8
OK west, north-central (except panhandle) - 7
OK central, northeast night - 5
SD southeast night - 6
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 7
TX central night, west of I-35 - 4
WI west-central night - 4
Other areas - less than 2


Sunday April 15
AR - 3
IL north - 4
IL central, south - 3
IN northwest - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 3
MI upper - 3
MI west - 3
MN southeast - 4
MO east-central, south - 3
OK southeast - 3
TX southeast - 4
TX rest of area east of I-35 - 3
WI central - 5
WI north - 3 to 4
WI south - 4
Other areas - less than 2

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-07-11

[srainhoutx]

The new 12Z meso guidance is most impressive regarding this High Risk potential for parts of OK/KS/NE around sunset extending into the night time hours. I know we have some folks following this event and we will try to provide more information as the day unfolds.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) suggests very heavy training storms developing mid day Monday across areas primarily along and E of a Livingston to Matagorda Bay line. We'll need to continue to monitor this potential as commonplace 1-3 inch amounts with even higher totals nearing 6+ inches of rainfall are not out of the question as the boundary pulls up stationary Sunday night very close the Houston Metro region. While there does remain some uncertainty, severe storms with very heavy rainfall rates possible.

[srainhoutx]

Long day ahead for our neighbors to the N. Stay Safe everyone...

04142012 mcd0521.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141442Z - 141615Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

[srainhoutx]

PDS Watch for the Plains...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High High

[srainhoutx]

The SPC expands High Risk further S with the 1630Z Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...WESTERN
IOWA...KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED. HOWEVER...
PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEB.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.

..HART/COHEN.. 04/14/2012

[srainhoutx]

For our part of the world tomorrow. A Moderate Risk has been added further N in WI, parts of MN as well as IA...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL WI...AS WELL
AS EXTREME SERN MN AND NERN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ERN KS INTO SRN WI BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SD/NEB INTO SRN MN...WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN
IA AND INTO ERN TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AS FAR N AS NRN WI. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH AND INTENSE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LINES OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY FROM TX INTO AR.

...MUCH OF WI...FAR SERN MN AND NERN IA...
A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH STRONG SLY FLOW MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S F. AREAS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
WHICH WILL BE AMPLE FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN INTENSE WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING.

AN ARC OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA...DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS WI BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
AWAY FROM THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT NEAR THE FRONT WILL
EASILY REMOVE ANY INHIBITION...WITH AN ORGANIZED QLCS POSSIBLE.
TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD EASILY RESULT IN
SEVERE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ONCE STORMS GET ORGANIZED. AREAS OF
ROTATION WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL...WITH SWATHS OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARLY
CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE ALONG THE LINE AS SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN.

...ERN TX INTO AR AND SRN MO...
A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING FROM ROUGHLY
SERN KS INTO ERN OK AND INTO CNTRL TX. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM TX INTO AR. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS NEWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT...FROM NERN TX INTO SRN MO. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH EVENING TO THE MS RIVER...AT WHICH TIME SOME STABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR AND THE THREAT WILL DECREASE.

..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon QPF discussion from the HPC:

...CNTRL INTO SRN PLNS REGION...
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER MID/UPR DYNAMICS WL RACE TWD THE NE
TNGT/SUN...THE ASSOC CDFNT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLNS SFC LOW WL
PUSH ACRS THE REGION. VRY DEEP MSTR IS IN PLACE WITH PWS 1.25-1.50
INCHES AND A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MDLS SHOW THE AIRMASS CAPPED
INTO TNGT...BUT AS WEAK HGT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH EWD... CAPE SHLD
BREAK WITH MOST GUID INDICATING SUPPORT FOR SCT CONVECTION OVR THE
SRN PLNS EXPANDING AND BECOMING ORGANIZED AS A SQUALL LN AS IT
PUSHES EWD TNGT...THEN DROPPING SEWD INTO THE DEEPER MSTR ON
SUNDAY TWD SERN TX. GUID SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION MOVG RATHER
QUICKLY...SO GENERALLY KEPT AMTS AOB ONE INCH. LATER ON SUNDAY AS
THE FNT SLOWS AND INTERACTS WITH DEEPER MSTR OVR SERN TX...THERE
COULD BE LOCALIZED HVIER RNFL

[srainhoutx]

High Risk conitnues for the Plains...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL AND ERN KS AND
NEB...AND MUCH OF NRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK NWD ACROSS
KS...NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO SERN SD AND SRN
MN...

...OK/KS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE
ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO
CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER
NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CAPPING
INCREASING AFTER 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN OK. THUS...THE
THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL THERE...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE
OF THE ONGOING HIGH RISK AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

TO THE W...CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM
SW KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER WRN
OK...AND AT OR ABOVE 80 F IN THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN THESE AREAS. INDEED...SEVERE
STORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WRN KS INTO FAR NW OK ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WITH TOWERING CU FARTHER S.

WAVES OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE...WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OVER THE PANHANDLES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE...AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS.

MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE
SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR
VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND
S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER
CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME
OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT
BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA.

...NRN KS/NEB...
LARGE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS...WITH STRONG
MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY TORNADOES. THESE CELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF THESE HP CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
BOW WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL.

ANOTHER LIKELY AREA OF SUPERCELL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM
NWRN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU
FIELD...W OF THE ONGOING KS ACTIVITY...AND E OF THE DRYLINE. BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OVER NEB...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE.

..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012

[tireman4]

Salina KS...

http://www.ksn.com/content/weather/liveradar.aspx

[srainhoutx]

Anyone with family/friends in Wichita, KS... advise them to take shelter now.

[ejburas]

Prayers going out to the people of Wichita...this could be really bad...

[srainhoutx]

The dry line in the TX Panhandle just unzipped...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 150311Z - 150345Z

A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

THE EASTWARD SURGE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY.
STORMS HAVE INITIATED WHERE THIS FEATURE HAS OVERTAKEN THE
RETREATING DRY LINE...AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 06-08Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 90-100+ KT 500 MB JET SHIFTING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REMAIN
STEEP...AND SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN
STRONGER STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM. AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE YET FOR THIS TO EVOLVE.

..KERR.. 04/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   OKC031-033-141-151100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0174.120415T0330Z-120415T1100Z/
   
   OK 
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   COMANCHE             COTTON              TILLMAN             
   
   
   TXC003-009-023-033-045-059-075-077-081-083-101-107-115-125-135-
   151-153-155-169-173-191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-
   329-335-345-353-399-415-417-431-433-441-447-485-487-151100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0174.120415T0330Z-120415T1100Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ANDREWS              ARCHER              BAYLOR              
   BORDEN               BRISCOE             CALLAHAN            
   CHILDRESS            CLAY                COKE                
   COLEMAN              COTTLE              CROSBY              
   DAWSON               DICKENS             ECTOR               
   FISHER               FLOYD               FOARD               
   GARZA                GLASSCOCK           HALL                
   HARDEMAN             HASKELL             HOWARD              
   JONES                KENT                KING                
   KNOX                 LUBBOCK             LYNN                
   MARTIN               MIDLAND             MITCHELL            
   MOTLEY               NOLAN               RUNNELS             
   SCURRY               SHACKELFORD         STERLING            
   STONEWALL            TAYLOR              THROCKMORTON        
   WICHITA              WILBARGER           
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.AVIATION...
TAIL END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS DAWN. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY. I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MVFR CIGS BECOMING
VFR CLOUDS OR MARGINAL MVFR CIGS BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...LOCALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS
SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED NEAR 16 KTS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KDRT TERMINAL VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
TOWARDS DAWN...LOCALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUD
HEIGHTS IMPROVING TO VFR. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS BY SUNRISE.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive outbreak and well modeled. This is what a High Risk can bring. All eyes will shift into Central/SE TX tomorrow.

[djjordan]

Still seems like anyones guess as to where the heavy rain train sets up. Good Morning everyone.......


.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL START THE DAY QUIET...WARM AND BREEZY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN NEAR THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-10 WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TOO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING COULD POSSIBLY BEGIN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA OR NEAR
THE COAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT THAT COULD VERY POSSIBLY
EXTEND INTO TUESDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OR MORE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CORRIDOR WILL SET UP...AND IT COULD CONCEIVABLY OCCUR
IN A VERY SMALL AREA RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR OFFSHORE. THE
AREA SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WHEN THIS STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
(WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES!) THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
GET ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE AREA A COOLER AND DRY WEEKEND. 42

[redneckweather]

Good morning! Is everyone enjoying these minimal tropical storm force winds since yesterday? This doesn't look to be any kind of major flooding event...just a good ol fashion turd floater with hopefully 1 to 3 inch rain totals. I will take just one inch of that up here since my garden is in the ground and taking off. I don't need it pounded and muddied up with anymore than that. I'm looking forward to the rain so it will knock out the dust, pollen and other crap in the air that is killing my sinuses!

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. The main question is when and where the frontal boundary begins to slow down this evening and if training cells begin to form and head NE along that boundary. The HPC has our area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall as well as the SPC Slight Risk for severe weather later today. Currently the dry line/frontal boundary is W of the Hill Country. We'll need to monitor the trends today as this has been the more difficult part of the forecast as to compared to the High Risk for severe weather and long track large tornadoes of yesterday that played out as expected. So far the death toll stands at 4 in Woodward, OK for a quick spinup tornado very late last night. I believe that the tornado reports are near 120 as of this morning. Of course those numbers will change as investigative processed start today. That said all in all the information/advance warnings and information appears to have worked well. All eyes will turn for 'locally' now for the severe threat and flood potential we could face during the next 24-36 hours.