April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?
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srainhoutx
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The 00Z NAM suggests tomorrow will be a transition day with lowering pressure to our W and Gulf flow wide open. Keeping an close eye on Saturday for OK, KS & NE and perhaps a tad further S into N TX. The dynamics are impressive. We will see...
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srainhoutx
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Sunday into early Monday may be the time frame to watch 'locally' if the WRF/NMM is correct...I suspect the night owls will be watching... 
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Andrew
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Oklahoma, I suspect, may be a disappointment Saturday unless activity tomorrow/tomorrow night leaves extra boundaries lying around, or remnant areas of clouds, that might limit instability in one area, but form a boundary of uneven heating. Oklahoma may be a tad too capped, although NAM fires a lone monster near Lawton early Saturday evening.srainhoutx wrote:The 00Z NAM suggests tomorrow will be a transition day with lowering pressure to our W and Gulf flow wide open. Keeping an close eye on Saturday for OK, KS & NE and perhaps a tad further S into N TX. The dynamics are impressive. We will see...
I think Oklahoma should be able to break the cap. Euro skew-t shows low CIN values around OKC before storms arrive and CAPE looks pretty impressive too. Saturation at lower levels before storms arrive in Oklahoma could be a problem though for daytime heating but that shall be seen. The trough and vorticity should lift north as the energy progresses East which (depending on where this happens) could allow for some flooding issues around SE Texas. I think Capping around will limit (to some degree) severe storms and the slowing progression of the line will most likely limit this even more. At the same time though any outflow boundaries that are created (similar to the last event) could really spark storms ahead of the line but around here our main system should be the line of storms. Also it will be key to watch for any local boundaries or shortwave disturbances because that is a big thing a lot of the models missed with the Dallas system. Unfortuantly that will be one of those watch as it happens events. I think locally though our main concern is the line of storms and the possibility of flooding. Especially along the coast where I could see things really slow down.
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Andrew
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And this is why things could get real bad up north: (I also think individual cells will be the big issue which is why models have been hit and miss on this)
SPC AC 130602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL
AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL
OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA
KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN
ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
LOCATED.
...NW TX/WCNTRL TX...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE
TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING
THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0851Z (3:51AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 130602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL
AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL
OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA
KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN
ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
LOCATED.
...NW TX/WCNTRL TX...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE
TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING
THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0851Z (3:51AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Andrew
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For our area:
SPC AC 130730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...OZARKS/ARKLATEX/EAST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AS A 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
THE TX GULF COAST NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SRN PLAINS WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA DURING THE DAY. NEW STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM LITTLE ROCK AR SSWWD TO
HOUSTON TX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 50 TO 70
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GETS GOING LIKE SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST. A
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY WITH
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SEVERE
THREAT MAGNITUDE IS STILL IN QUESTION MAINLY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A 90 TO 110 MID-LEVEL JET NOSES IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MN AND WI
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING. NEW
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY
FROM MADISON WI SWD INTO ERN IA AND FAR NW IL SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALSO
SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT INTO LOWER MI WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
SPC AC 130730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...OZARKS/ARKLATEX/EAST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AS A 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
THE TX GULF COAST NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SRN PLAINS WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA DURING THE DAY. NEW STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM LITTLE ROCK AR SSWWD TO
HOUSTON TX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 50 TO 70
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GETS GOING LIKE SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST. A
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY WITH
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SEVERE
THREAT MAGNITUDE IS STILL IN QUESTION MAINLY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A 90 TO 110 MID-LEVEL JET NOSES IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MN AND WI
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING. NEW
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY
FROM MADISON WI SWD INTO ERN IA AND FAR NW IL SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALSO
SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT INTO LOWER MI WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
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Andrew
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Some 00Z GFS outputs for CIN and CAPE for Hour 21. Central Oklahoma (as mentioned in the SPC Outlook) looks to be the bulls-eye.
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srainhoutx
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Concerning to see such severe weather parameters for OK and KS tomorrow. We'll need to monitor future short range guidance carefully as there appears to be some tremendous dynamics with the Upper Low this morning in California. A Moderate Risk may not be out of the question for Sunday for portions of Texas and points N and E, IMO. Also as Andrew noted over night, the flood potential has increased as well mainly in a line from Livingston to the SW towards Matagorda Bay…we will see....
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Katdaddy
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Hope everyone in OK and KS are listening to the media for this upcoming event. Its been awhile since reading morning AFDs gave me the chills. This is going to be a very dangerous, life threatening, and rapidly developing tornado outbreak. I will be warning family and friends in those areas via Facebook and will be watching ChaserTV live feeds.
Record warm Gulf temps are helping feed this severe outbreak.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2071
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2071
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srainhoutx
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Yikes...
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB AND FAR WRN IA...
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL
OK...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK INTO NEB AND IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD INTO SRN MN AND
WRN IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS BY SUN MORNING. AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...A
MIDLEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 100 KT WILL BE NOSING INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BY 00Z...TIGHTENING FURTHER AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NEWD
ACROSS KS AND NEB. THIS BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY OVER ERN CO INTO
SWRN NEB...WITH THE 00Z DRYLINE POSITION ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NEB NEAR
THE LOW SWD ACROSS KS AND INTO WRN OK AND NW TX. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEWD
ACROSS SERN SD INTO SRN MN.
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX ACROSS OK AND INTO
SRN KS AT 00Z. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS THE
WARM FRONT. COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM TX TO NEB.
...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA...
A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FORCE MORNING RAIN AND STORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING JUST TO THE W...AND A BROAD WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS IN
PLACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED AND RH LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY SHELTERED AS WELL...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
STRONG TORNADOES. CELLS WOULD LIKELY FORM OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA WHERE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THEN WOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO
THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARIES.
...CNTRL KS...WRN AND CNTRL OK...NWRN TX...
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINLY EXISTS IN REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE DAY FROM KS INTO OK AND NW TX. HOWEVER...HIGH END
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL HIGH.
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON SAT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CAPPING IN PLACE EARLY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HEATING
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE MOST INHIBITION BY AFTERNOON...WHEN WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 2000-2500
J/KG.
STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY HELP KEEP STORMS DISCRETE. FAVORABLY
ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS WELL AS VEERING AND
INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR TORNADOES AS WELL. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL PLAINS VIOLENT TORNADO DAYS...BUT
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND TO PROCEED NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH
RISK AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEN...THE PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION CAPABLE OF DAMAGE.
FARTHER S INTO TX...DAYTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY...WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT COMING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE.
..JEWELL.. 04/13/2012
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB AND FAR WRN IA...
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL
OK...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK INTO NEB AND IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD INTO SRN MN AND
WRN IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS BY SUN MORNING. AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...A
MIDLEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 100 KT WILL BE NOSING INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BY 00Z...TIGHTENING FURTHER AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NEWD
ACROSS KS AND NEB. THIS BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY OVER ERN CO INTO
SWRN NEB...WITH THE 00Z DRYLINE POSITION ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NEB NEAR
THE LOW SWD ACROSS KS AND INTO WRN OK AND NW TX. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEWD
ACROSS SERN SD INTO SRN MN.
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX ACROSS OK AND INTO
SRN KS AT 00Z. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS THE
WARM FRONT. COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM TX TO NEB.
...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA...
A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FORCE MORNING RAIN AND STORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING JUST TO THE W...AND A BROAD WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS IN
PLACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED AND RH LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY SHELTERED AS WELL...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
STRONG TORNADOES. CELLS WOULD LIKELY FORM OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA WHERE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THEN WOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO
THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARIES.
...CNTRL KS...WRN AND CNTRL OK...NWRN TX...
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINLY EXISTS IN REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE DAY FROM KS INTO OK AND NW TX. HOWEVER...HIGH END
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL HIGH.
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON SAT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CAPPING IN PLACE EARLY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HEATING
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE MOST INHIBITION BY AFTERNOON...WHEN WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 2000-2500
J/KG.
STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY HELP KEEP STORMS DISCRETE. FAVORABLY
ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS WELL AS VEERING AND
INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR TORNADOES AS WELL. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL PLAINS VIOLENT TORNADO DAYS...BUT
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND TO PROCEED NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH
RISK AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEN...THE PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION CAPABLE OF DAMAGE.
FARTHER S INTO TX...DAYTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY...WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT COMING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE.
..JEWELL.. 04/13/2012
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Member: National Weather Association
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Both Oklahoma and Nebraska are playing their spring football games Saturday afternoon.
Neb @ 1pm
OU @ 2pm
It will be interesting to see if they change those plans. Might want to move the start times up a couple hours.
Neb @ 1pm
OU @ 2pm
It will be interesting to see if they change those plans. Might want to move the start times up a couple hours.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HGX seems to hint that the boundary will stall near the area as the Upper Air dynamics shift NE and low level flow/forcing slows down the frontal boundary...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA AND SEEING SOME ISO POPCORN
SHRA DEVELOPING UNDER THE CAP AND UNDER INCREASING LLVL JET. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND ANTICIPATE THAT A
WIND ADVSY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. GUSTS TO 35+ WOULDN`T BE A SURPRISE.
OTHER THAN SOME ISO STREAMER SHRA UNDER THE CAP...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY/BREEZY WX INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. AS AN UPPER TROF
AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTN...EXPECT CAP TO GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS NRN PARTS. ALTHOUGH
BEST DYNAMICS FOR SVR WX WILL GENERALLY BE SITUATED N OF THE
CWA...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-10
TO WARRANT A CONTINUED LOOK AT SLIGHT SVR WX CHANCES DURING THE
AFTN/EVNG SUNDAY. THINK THE PRIMARY WX ISSUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER...MIGHT BE TRANSITIONING MORE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.
THE LINE OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE N/NW HALF DURING THE DAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN (AT LEAST
IT`S SYNOPTICLY FAVORABLE TO DO SO) AS THE BEST PUSH/DYNAMICS
MOVE NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE FRONT
PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE HWY 59 OR I-10 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
THRU THE DAY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY LONGER AS
STEERING WINDS DROP OFF.
THAT BEING SAID...THINGS CAN (AND PROBABLY WILL) CHANGE DUE TO
MESOSCALE ISSUES. FOR EXAMPLE...MAYBE A STRONGER COLD POOL BEHIND
THE INITIAL LINE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES THE SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER
SE AND OFFSHORE OR OUT OF THE CWA. OR THE BOUNDARY DOESN`T MAKE
IT AS FAR SE AS CURRENTLY FCST. NEITHER ARE FORECASTABLE WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE BUT NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IF IT PLAYS OUT AS SYNOPTIC MODELS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST. FOR NOW...PROBABLY NEED FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN/SVR THREAT ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVNG
AND GO FROM THERE.
FCST BEYOND TUE DEPENDS ON WHAT THE FRONT EVENTUALLY DOES. GFS
TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLN INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHILE ECMWF SHOWS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GOING
TO START A SLOW TREND BY WEIGHTING THE FCST TOWARD THE WETTER
SOLN FOR NOW.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA AND SEEING SOME ISO POPCORN
SHRA DEVELOPING UNDER THE CAP AND UNDER INCREASING LLVL JET. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND ANTICIPATE THAT A
WIND ADVSY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. GUSTS TO 35+ WOULDN`T BE A SURPRISE.
OTHER THAN SOME ISO STREAMER SHRA UNDER THE CAP...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY/BREEZY WX INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. AS AN UPPER TROF
AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTN...EXPECT CAP TO GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS NRN PARTS. ALTHOUGH
BEST DYNAMICS FOR SVR WX WILL GENERALLY BE SITUATED N OF THE
CWA...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-10
TO WARRANT A CONTINUED LOOK AT SLIGHT SVR WX CHANCES DURING THE
AFTN/EVNG SUNDAY. THINK THE PRIMARY WX ISSUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER...MIGHT BE TRANSITIONING MORE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.
THE LINE OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE N/NW HALF DURING THE DAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN (AT LEAST
IT`S SYNOPTICLY FAVORABLE TO DO SO) AS THE BEST PUSH/DYNAMICS
MOVE NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE FRONT
PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE HWY 59 OR I-10 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
THRU THE DAY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY LONGER AS
STEERING WINDS DROP OFF.
THAT BEING SAID...THINGS CAN (AND PROBABLY WILL) CHANGE DUE TO
MESOSCALE ISSUES. FOR EXAMPLE...MAYBE A STRONGER COLD POOL BEHIND
THE INITIAL LINE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES THE SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER
SE AND OFFSHORE OR OUT OF THE CWA. OR THE BOUNDARY DOESN`T MAKE
IT AS FAR SE AS CURRENTLY FCST. NEITHER ARE FORECASTABLE WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE BUT NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IF IT PLAYS OUT AS SYNOPTIC MODELS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST. FOR NOW...PROBABLY NEED FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN/SVR THREAT ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVNG
AND GO FROM THERE.
FCST BEYOND TUE DEPENDS ON WHAT THE FRONT EVENTUALLY DOES. GFS
TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLN INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHILE ECMWF SHOWS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GOING
TO START A SLOW TREND BY WEIGHTING THE FCST TOWARD THE WETTER
SOLN FOR NOW.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6052
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Norman OK News 9 on Thunderstorm/Tornado Situation...
http://www.news9.com/Global/category.as ... nnerId=436
http://www.news9.com/Global/category.as ... nnerId=436
It is going to be a dangerous event for them. We could be next come Sunday night.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The parametesr for the Plains Event tomorrow are most impressive as has been mentioned. Worrisome to see a stalling boundary over our areas for Monday into early Tuesday...
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS...AND CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OK...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
SW OK TO FAR NE NEB AND WRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
NW TX TO WRN NEB...IA...AND MO...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD ACROSS KS TO CENTRAL OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER NW AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING WHILE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD
FROM ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON TO NE NEB/SE SD BY 12Z SUNDAY. S OF THE
CYCLONE...A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FROM CENTRAL
KS SWD INTO WRN OK AND NW TX BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD FROM KS THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL COVER NEB/KS/OK/N TX TO THE E
OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO NEB...AND THE DRYLINE TRAILING SWD INTO KS/OK.
...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WAA STORMS ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW
MO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS KS TO S CENTRAL/SE NEB
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING INVOF THE DRYLINE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN NEB TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL OK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MEANWHILE... DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CLEARLY INTO THE PARAMETER
SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS STRONG-VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADO
EPISODES.
THE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING IN KS/OK. THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH STORM INITIATION SIGNALS...WHILE
SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
DRYLINE SUPERCELLS IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SHOW DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. PLUS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KS/OK PORTION
OF THE DRYLINE IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FARTHER N...POTENTIALLY MORE
CONCENTRATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
NW EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN NEB /WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET ALOFT/. ALL FACTORS FAVOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THOUGH STORMS COULD BE WIDELY
SPACED...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG PATHS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
LATE TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL FULLY EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR AFTER 06Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH THE MORE LINEAR AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET AGL.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/14/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS...AND CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OK...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
SW OK TO FAR NE NEB AND WRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
NW TX TO WRN NEB...IA...AND MO...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD ACROSS KS TO CENTRAL OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER NW AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING WHILE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD
FROM ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON TO NE NEB/SE SD BY 12Z SUNDAY. S OF THE
CYCLONE...A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FROM CENTRAL
KS SWD INTO WRN OK AND NW TX BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD FROM KS THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL COVER NEB/KS/OK/N TX TO THE E
OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO NEB...AND THE DRYLINE TRAILING SWD INTO KS/OK.
...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WAA STORMS ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW
MO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS KS TO S CENTRAL/SE NEB
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING INVOF THE DRYLINE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN NEB TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL OK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MEANWHILE... DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CLEARLY INTO THE PARAMETER
SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS STRONG-VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADO
EPISODES.
THE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING IN KS/OK. THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH STORM INITIATION SIGNALS...WHILE
SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
DRYLINE SUPERCELLS IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SHOW DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. PLUS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KS/OK PORTION
OF THE DRYLINE IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FARTHER N...POTENTIALLY MORE
CONCENTRATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
NW EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN NEB /WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET ALOFT/. ALL FACTORS FAVOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THOUGH STORMS COULD BE WIDELY
SPACED...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG PATHS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
LATE TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL FULLY EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR AFTER 06Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH THE MORE LINEAR AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET AGL.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/14/2012
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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For our area from the HPC:
FARTHER SOUTH...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CAUGHT OR BE IN
THE PROCESS OF CATCHING UP WITH THE DRYLINE BEFORE EXITING THE
PLAINS...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY VERY
ACTIVE...ESP OVER THE MID/LWR MS VLY REGION AND INTO THE SE TX
COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BY SUN NIGHT MAY WELL BE STALLING OUT
ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST. THE MDLS SUPPORT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHIFTING TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE BNDRY IN GENERAL AS THE
DEEPER POOL OF MSTR/INSTABILITY SHOULD CONGREGATE GRADUALLY DOWN
OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND WRN GULF COAST REGION. FARTHER NORTH...THE
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
MON...BUT WITH LESS ORGANIZATION AND WITH LIGHTER AREAL AVG AMTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUES AS THE PORTION
OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LAKES AND CNTRL/NRN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH LESS MSTR/INSTABILITY AND
WITH NOTABLY WEAKER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS ALOFT. THAT WILL NOT BE THE
CASE THOUGH MON THROUGH TUES DOWN ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES.
A STALLING BNDRY WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
IT...COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF LOW LVL INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WITH ROBUST H25 RRQ JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS. CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THE EXACT AXIS...BUT THE SET-UP FAVORS
BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE OF VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES. TWO-DAY RAINFALL AMTS ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST
REGION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE PROGGED ATTM WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HPC QPF GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.
FARTHER SOUTH...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CAUGHT OR BE IN
THE PROCESS OF CATCHING UP WITH THE DRYLINE BEFORE EXITING THE
PLAINS...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY VERY
ACTIVE...ESP OVER THE MID/LWR MS VLY REGION AND INTO THE SE TX
COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BY SUN NIGHT MAY WELL BE STALLING OUT
ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST. THE MDLS SUPPORT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHIFTING TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE BNDRY IN GENERAL AS THE
DEEPER POOL OF MSTR/INSTABILITY SHOULD CONGREGATE GRADUALLY DOWN
OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND WRN GULF COAST REGION. FARTHER NORTH...THE
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
MON...BUT WITH LESS ORGANIZATION AND WITH LIGHTER AREAL AVG AMTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUES AS THE PORTION
OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LAKES AND CNTRL/NRN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH LESS MSTR/INSTABILITY AND
WITH NOTABLY WEAKER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS ALOFT. THAT WILL NOT BE THE
CASE THOUGH MON THROUGH TUES DOWN ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES.
A STALLING BNDRY WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
IT...COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF LOW LVL INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WITH ROBUST H25 RRQ JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS. CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THE EXACT AXIS...BUT THE SET-UP FAVORS
BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE OF VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES. TWO-DAY RAINFALL AMTS ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST
REGION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE PROGGED ATTM WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HPC QPF GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPC Day 2 has SE TX in a Slight Risk...
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS LINE POTENTIALLY HAVING
A SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE
LINE EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOPING
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINEAR MCS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT LITTLE ROCK AR AND SHREVEPORT LA AT 21Z SUNDAY
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT. THIS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT POTENTIALLY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE FOR WIND DAMAGE DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. IF A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP. THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO ENABLE ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE LINE ITSELF AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS SE
MN...WI SWD INTO IL. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 60 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A SFC TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 04/14/2012
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS LINE POTENTIALLY HAVING
A SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE
LINE EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOPING
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINEAR MCS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT LITTLE ROCK AR AND SHREVEPORT LA AT 21Z SUNDAY
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT. THIS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT POTENTIALLY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE FOR WIND DAMAGE DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. IF A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP. THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO ENABLE ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE LINE ITSELF AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS SE
MN...WI SWD INTO IL. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 60 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A SFC TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 04/14/2012
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