April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[Paul]

man what a day up in Dallas....I have been doing damage control all evening and just now posting. My site in Lancaster took a beating with debris damage. Another one in Irving. Luckly my project in DT Dallas did not take a hit though my folks up there said they could see a tornado on the 54th floor about 3 miles from the building during the peak.

Latest radar trends show the tail end of the line trying to back build... You guys up north should feel some heat shortly. One inch hail is nothing to sneeze about. That will ding up a car pretty good and potential compromise roof shingles. I do need a new roof by the way....but I could do without the car dings.

[ticka1]

Looks like everything weaken and fizzled out before getting to houston.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I'm kinda bummed. It looked promising but the line really slowed down. It didn't reach me until 3AM. One large cell did refire over The Woodlands but it barely missed me. I had a tremendous amount of lightning and thunder. I just assumed it was pouring outside and went back to sleep. When I woke-up my gauge had just a trace in it.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak trough/frontal boundary has slowed overnight from roughly Lake Livingston to Waller to north of Victoria while an outflow boundary from northern Louisiana is moving WSW and currently extends from near Humble to High Island. The intersection of the two boundaries is resulting in thunderstorms formation over eastern Harris, southern Liberty and Chambers Counties currently.



Air mass south and west of the mentioned boundaries or roughly south of I-10 is moist and unstable and weakly capped. However lift from the low level forcing along the boundaries has been enough to breach the capping inversion allowing storms to develop. With modest heating this morning, the cap will likely completely erode along with any possible weak impulse in the WSW flow aloft which may lead to thunderstorms formation. In fact echoes are enhanced currently north of Victoria. Short term meso models are showing thunderstorm formation throughout the day over our coastal and US 59 corridor counties.



Air mass is already unstable with CAPE of 1500-2500 J/Kg across the southern parts of the area so a few storms could pulse up to severe levels with wind damage and hail being the main threats. Will be watching trends closely this morning to see how boundaries interact as they collide as we could see more development that currently expected.



By later today/tonight, drier air mass over our NW counties will drift into the entire region ending rain chances. Lows will average in the mid 60’s with highs in the mid to upper 80’s under lower humidity into the weekend. Will need to keep an eye out west starting Saturday for higher terrain convection moving out of NE MX and any potential MCS activity into SC/S TX during this period. For now think that SE TX will be too far east and under a more stable and drier air mass than areas to our west limiting the eastern extent of any convection.

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff:

April 3, 2012 a memorbale day across north Texas as strong tornadoes move through highly populated urban areas….a low probablity high impact tornado outbreak.



As of this morning only 10-20 people were injured 2 severely with no fatalities which is remarkable given the intensity of the tornadoes in a highly urban area.



3 damage assessement teams will be surveying the damage today to determine the number and intensity of the tornadoes, and a full report will be available later this week.



Event Overview:

While the event was under forecast...the reasoning was that of a slow moving weak outflow boundary. The two storms that popped in the warm sector south of that boundary went tornadic as they crossed the low level shear zone near the boundary where low level winds were backed to the east resulting in good low level shear...we know low level boundaries can really be good tornado producers IF storms generate. Additionally, the storms developed in a small region of strong surface based instability (CAPE) and past outbreaks in TX have shown a tendencies for tornadoes to generate in very high CAPE environments and utilize low level boundary related shear to produce destructive tornadoes (May 1999 Central TX outbreak). The bigger question yesterday morning was...would storms fire off in the warm sector...15Z KCLL special sounding showed a fairly weak cap with visible images showing large breaks in the overcast over the warm sector (south and southwest of DFW)...the first warning sign that things may go bad… and three hours later the first cell generated over Johnson County and quickly went tornadic. The storms generated very close to the south side of the DFW metro area, so there was little time from the point of formation to the point that tornadoes were impacting highly populated areas. The first tornado warning was issued at 1244pm for a spotter indicated tornado near Joshua and 45 minutes later tornadoes were impacting both Arlington and Lancaster.



Warnings:

Once storms generated and went tornadic NWS FWD quickly realized the gravity of the unfolding event and began issuing strongly worded tornado warnings and then upgraded to the highest level of warning: Tornado Emergency statement with descriptive commanding messaging to encourage action (see warning text below). Extensive media coverage by both local and national stations quickly relayed the warning information to the public…additionally social media (facebook, twitter, and text) were highly utilized during the event along with traditional tornado warning sirens. There was significant situational awareness of the tornadoes, where they were located and how strong for much of the outbreak within the urban areas due to the vast amount of both media coverage and public cell phone video which lead many residents to make the right decisions at the proper time. There is little doubt that this saved many lives yesterday as residents quickly realized the danger to them and their immediate area and took proper tornado precautions (Post event studies of the Joplin Tornado last year suggest many residents did not realize the threat to their immediate location and therefore took little or no action).



Aside: While the tornadoes were destructive, they were not the monster mile wide tornadoes that struck Joplin and Alabama last year…(although the Royce City and Forney tornadoes were getting to that point along parts of their paths likely rating into the EF 4 range at some points). Had these tornadoes been slightly stronger even proper tornado precautions may not have been enough to prevent large amounts of injuries and fatalities…the fear of a large catastrophic tornado going through a highly urban area…there will be extreme damage and large loss of life/injuries as some tornadoes are not survivable.



NWS Warning Text:



Arlington Tornado Warning:
125 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KENNEDALE...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ARLINGTON IS IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THISTORNADO! IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVERIMMEDIATELY! THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TARRANTCOUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ARLINGTON. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PANTEGO...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS AND ARLINGTON AROUND 135 PM CDT... HALTOM CITY AROUND 140 PM CDT... GRAND PRAIRIE AND RICHLAND HILLS AROUND 145 PM CDT... HURST...NORTH RICHLAND HILLS AND WATAUGA AROUND 150 PM CDT... BEDFORD AROUND 155 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 70...I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 445...I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 26...I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 35. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HASBEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVEUNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Lancaster Tornado Warning: 126 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR HUTCHINS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...SEEK SHELTER NOW!! THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DALLAS AND HUTCHINS! SEEK SHELTERNOW! * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DALLAS AROUND 145 PM CDT... SUNNYVALE AROUND 155 PM CDT... GARLAND AND BUCKINGHAM AROUND 205 PM CDT... ROWLETT AND RICHARDSON AROUND 210 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HASBEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVEUNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS


Royce City Large wedge Tornado:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZNgzENzC9g

Arlington Tornado footage:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxsxKi0W ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wKREmXB ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJpxq4cX ... ure=relmfu

Lancaster Tornado:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Njg85jI ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNv-Ml6b ... ure=relmfu

Kenedale Tornado:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxHgPrhs ... ure=relmfu

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT WED APR 04 2012

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST
REGION THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN VLY INTO THE OZARKS AND VA/NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN HI PLNS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW AND
ELONGATED SYSTEM ROTATING SE ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. THE PLNS LOW
SHOULD REACH N CNTRL OK THIS EVE AS ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE NOW IN W TX
PIVOTS NE INTO NE OK/NW AR. THE LOW SHOULD TURN A BIT S OF E AS IT
ENTERS NW AR EARLY THU.

AT THE SFC...THE LEADING EDGE OF COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
CROSSED E TX AND LA LATE YESTERDAY/EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED OFF THE LA
CST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL LIKELY WILL LIMIT OR AT LEAST DELAY
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY. FARTHER
W...DIFFUSE PACIFIC COLD FRONT NOW OVER ERN OK AND NE TX SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD. THE TRAILING SRN PORTION
MAY...HOWEVER...BECOME NEARLY STNRY ALONG THE TX GULF CST.
ELSEWHERE...W-E BOUNDARY ATTM EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS TO SRN OH
SHOULD DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC
CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO SRN PLNS UPR SYSTEM LINGERS OVER SE KS.
THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT...NOW OVER WV/SRN VA...MAY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED LATER TODAY/TNGT AS APPROACH OF NY/NEW ENGLAND UPR
IMPULSE TIGHTENS THERMAL GRADIENT.

DESPITE LARGE AREA OF LOW LVL STABILIZATION PROVIDED BY THE MCS
OUTFLOW...SOME POCKETS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS LIKELY WILL OCCUR
TODAY...MOST IN AT LEAST LOOSE ASSOCIATION WITH THE PLNS UPR LOW.

...ERN AL INTO GA/TN AFTN/EVE...
THE UPR TN VLY...ERN AL...AND GA WERE NOT AFFECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT
MCSS IN LA/MS...AND MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THE
REGION TODAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL EML AND MODERATE WLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM PLNS LOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL THROUGH
EARLY TNGT.

...TX GULF CST LATE AFTN/EVE...
VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ALONG STALLING FRONT
OVER THE TX GULF CST. BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE BENEATH RESIDUAL EML
ROUNDING BASE OF PLNS UPR LOW DOES...HOWEVER...SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR A FEW PULSE SVR STORMS ASSUMING THAT WEAK BUT SUSTAINED
UPLIFT ALONG FRONT IS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CIN. GIVEN STRONG
BUOYANCY /SBCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/...THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...SE KS INTO SRN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
POCKETS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR STORMS MAY ARISE THIS AFTN IN ZONE
OF DEFORMATION/ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT LOBE PIVOTING NE AROUND
SRN PLNS UPR LOW. DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL BE WEAK. BUT
COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND LOW LVL CONFLUENCE N AND E OF SE KS SFC LOW
MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NARROWING LOW LVL MOIST AXIS IN
AREAS RECEIVING SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT.

...ERN KY/SRN WV ESE INTO SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTN/EVE...
ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN KY AND SRN
WV LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION OF MODEST WNWLY
FLOW BENEATH RESIDUAL EML. MOISTURE AND UPLIFT SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS OR REGENERATIVE
STRUCTURES POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND/OR SVR HAIL. STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ASSISTED BY NRN STREAM IMPULSE ADVANCING ESE
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/04/2012

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 AM CDT WED APR 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1136 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MISSOURI CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...MISSOURI CITY...PEARLAND...ALVIN...FIRST COLONY...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...STAFFORD...FRESNO...MANVEL...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...ARCOLA...
IOWA COLONY AND THOMPSONS.

[Paul]

look at that cold top on that cell...impressive...looks like both complexes are converging ....got some rumbling and very dark here now....

[Paul]

dont see rotation.....so that is good...

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 AM CDT WED APR 4 2012

TXC039-157-201-041715-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120404T1715Z/
FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-
1159 AM CDT WED APR 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS AND
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MISSOURI CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH. A SECOND STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF ALVIN.
THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HOUSTON...MISSOURI
CITY...PEARLAND...ALVIN...FIRST COLONY...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY
PLACE...STAFFORD...FRESNO...MANVEL...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE
PLACE...ARCOLA AND IOWA COLONY.

[Paul]

looks like they are converging now....right near me....got some serious lightening to my south...Friendswood might come into play so I wonder why no warnings for galveston county

[Paul]

its here now....serious downpour....filling up the pool which is nice....

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1210 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FRESNO...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. A SECOND STRONG STORM
WHICH COULD INTENSIFY IS LOCATED NEAR ALVIN...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY
PRODUCE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...PEARLAND...FRIENDSWOOD...DEER PARK...
ALVIN...DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...
WEBSTER...NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...FRESNO...MANVEL...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...ARCOLA...
IOWA COLONY AND HILLCREST.

[Paul]

there is your Galeston County warning...just a matter of time...

[Paul]

thats some 65DBZ tops in there.....that is your hail core...

[Rip76]

Hailing like crazy in the 77089.

[srainhoutx]

Some reports of ping pong ball to golfball size hail coming in near Pearland/Alvin

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

TXC039-167-201-041800-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-120404T1800Z/
GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-
1242 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM
CDT FOR GALVESTON...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ALVIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. A SECOND STRONG STORM IS NEAR
FRIENDSWOOD AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL.

PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED EARLIER IN PEARLAND AND
QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ALVIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...PEARLAND...FRIENDSWOOD...DEER PARK...
ALVIN...DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...WEBSTER...
NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE AND
HILLCREST.

[srainhoutx]

Reading the new SPC MCD, winds going L&V, pressure rises over, decent dews North of the outflow boundary, I am glass one eight optimistic on development inland where it would help my lawn...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST/COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041719Z - 041845Z

POTENTIAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL REGION COULD REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS TWO STORMS INVOF THE KHOU /HOUSTON TX/
AREA ATTM...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EVIDENT.
WITH A MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION.

ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...KHGX /HOUSTON TX/ WSR-88D
VWP CONTINUES TO REVEAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH 50 KT
WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL ORGANIZE/ROTATE...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ATTM APPEARS TO BE AN OVERALL LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE NW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THOUGH A VERY WEAK FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS PRIMARILY AT LOW-LEVELS --
SPECIFICALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS NEARLY STALLED JUST W/SW
OF KHGX...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED TO THE W OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS ALONG A WEAK MARINE FRONT ALONG THE COAST.
WHILE THIS SUGGESTS LIKELIHOOD THAT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH -- IF WIDESPREAD ENOUGH --
COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 04/04/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[txflagwaver]

Just light rain here. Looks like the bad stuff is going around us...