April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX TO E-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...135...

VALID 032353Z - 040100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133...135...CONTINUES.

WITH WW 133 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z AND THE TORNADO THREAT LIKELY
DIMINISHING...PORTIONS OF WW 133/135 MAY BE REDEFINED WITH A
REPLACEMENT WW PRIOR TO 01Z.

NRN PORTION OF QLCS HAD RECENTLY ACCELERATED AND CONSOLIDATED WITH
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT HAD BEEN PREVALENT ALONG A
W/E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW OVER FAR NERN TX. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. BUT THE PROGRESSIVE/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE QLCS SUGGESTS
TORNADIC POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS
AGO...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

FARTHER SW INTO E-CNTRL TX...BASED ON RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IT
APPEARS THE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED 10-25 MILES OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOWER
MOVING PORTION OF THE QLCS. STILL...A RISK FOR EMBEDDED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN A MODERATELY STRONG COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..GRAMS.. 04/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[txflagwaver]

Soooo...is it gonna rain??

[Andrew]

Good link for all the tornado videos:

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/03/v ... -outbreak/

[Andrew]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-021-041-051-089-149-185-225-285-287-313-339-373-407-455-
471-473-477-040600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0137.120404T0035Z-120404T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS
BURLESON COLORADO FAYETTE
GRIMES HOUSTON LAVACA
LEE MADISON MONTGOMERY
POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
$$


ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

[jasons2k]

Looks like all systems are a go for an active night for SE Texas. Stay safe and keep us posted as things develop at your location.

[Katdaddy]

I agree jasons. The line will begin developing SW to E of San Antonio over the next few hours. I told co-workers today it will be after 10PM when they stated it looks like Houston will miss all the storms. With the moisture convergence with the dryline in combination with outflow boundary headed S will create a good line of storms. Dont give up yet Ed.

[Andrew]

Intense lighting here (college station)

[Katdaddy]

Two small bowing segments headed your way Andrew.

[Andrew]

Two small bowing segments headed your way Andrew.

Yea I have been watching the radar and vorticity looks impressive. Lightning is going crazy here.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...NERN TX...FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

VALID 040147Z - 040245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134 AND TORNADO WATCH 135 ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. PORTIONS OF THESE WATCHES MAY BE
REPLACED BY A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH PRIOR TO 03Z.

AS OF 0140Z...LONG-LIVED QLCS EXTENDED FROM WRN AR INTO E-CNTRL TX
WITH AN EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. OUTFLOW
FROM AN MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY HAS INTERSECTED WITH THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE QLCS INVOF SHV. WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN LA INTO S-CNTRL/SERN AR...THE ONGOING
BOW WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH A DECREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A MORE W-E SHAPE INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT BECOMING
CONFINED FARTHER S IN ERN TX/WRN LA...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN.

..GRAMS.. 04/04/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC041-185-313-040300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0050.120404T0212Z-120404T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 907 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRYAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO COLLEGE STATION.

[srainhoutx]

While some meso guidance has been lacking, the WRF has done fairly well with events the past couple of days across TX. The 00Z suggests activity in and around the Houston Metro overnight...stay safe and stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/04/12 0223Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0215Z JS
.
LOCATION...S MISSISSIPPI/N AND CENT LOUISIANA/S ARKANSAS/E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...STILL MONITORING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SQUALL LINE AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH OLD OUTFLOW FROM MCS CURRENTLY OVER E CENT LA/S CENT MS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EASTERN MOST MCS CONTINUES TO SURGE TO
THE S AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS. CLOUD TOP TRENDS WITH THIS MCS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE RAPID
MOVEMENT. FARTHER TO THE WEST, AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE EAST, ENCOUNTERING THE OLD OUTFLOW/RAIN COOLED MORE STABLE AIR
MASS OVER S CENT AR/N CENT LA. RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING
TECHNIQUES ARE SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 1" TO NEARLY 3" MAX TOTALS DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM E CENT TX TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX WITH RAIN
RATES ESTIMATED AROUND 1.5" TO OVER 2"/HR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND 1.5" PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES/MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SFC DEWPOINTS PRESENT.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0215-0515Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...HAVE ALSO NOTED A RECENT VEERING TO THE SSW LOW LEVEL JET
OVER E TX INTO W LA WHICH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR
FAR E TX/EXTREME S AR/NW TO N CENT LA AND EVEN POTENTIALLY DOWN INTO
CENT LA WHERE LOW LEVEL JET ENCOUNTERS THE W PORTION OF OTHER MCS/OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE OVER N LA TO
TURN TO MORE TO THE S AND SE TOWARD THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR CAUSING THE
LINE TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS WELL.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
928 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CROCKETT...AUSTONIO AND GRAPELAND.


TXC041-185-313-040300-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-120404T0300Z/
GRIMES TX-MADISON TX-BRAZOS TX-
936 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR BRAZOS...MADISON AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGE STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WIXON
VALLEY...KURTEN...NORTH ZULCH...IOLA AND BEDIAS

[Katdaddy]

Time for bed...night crew shift change. Storms building as expected S of I-10 and E of San Antonio.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker Counties

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Houston, Madison Counties

[jasons2k]

I just walked the dog and I can already see the lightning off to the northwest. It's pretty intense, especially for this time of night. I think this will hold together for us.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on Colorado County. Hints of a bow echo developing may need to be watched. I agree, Jason. Folks need to keep an ear to the weather tonight.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like this will be a night time thunderstorm.