March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[tireman4]

Yeah, this will be one to watch. This early in the year, humm.......

[Katdaddy]

Very concerned for the population in the high risk area. I hope everyone in that area has a NOAA weather radio close by and or watches their local media outlets throughout the day. I am afraid more lives will be lost today and this evening as a very violent and damaging tornado event unfolds.

[txflagwaver]

This is great news for folks in bad weather prone areas...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6f9Uq54hk0

[texoz]

Yeah, this will be one to watch. This early in the year, humm.......

fyi, from wunderground

"The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down."

and

"Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2043

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Terrible terrible morning in Huntsville, AL area. Instability and shear have led to many morning tornadoes and the main event isn't even here yet.

Harvest, AL has been hit twice this morning by tornadoes. Meridianville had a correctional facility and middle school hit.

No word on deaths yet, but the damage is extensive. This is reminding me of April 27th, 2011.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Harvest, AL

[ticka1]

Welcome back Srainhoutx - thought you had left us after not seeing for several days.

Larry Cosgrove started mentioning our turn late next week for severe weather and lots of rain. Today is goig to be a rough ride for our neighbors to the east!

[texoz]

West Liberty, KY just got nailed by what could be a EF4 or EF5. The debris ball generated on radar is frightening looking.

[Andrew]

A line is trying to extend in our area and areas to the west of the metro area might get some thunder as the line slowly creeps to the south.

[jasons2k]

Dang, just south of me...

[unome]

just had a shower from the tail of that scorpion that's been stinging the eastern half of the US today

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site ... adar=CONUS

[texoz]

This outbreak isn't as big as the two last year, but I think by this time tomorrow the death toll is going to be significant.

[svrwx0503]

It looks like the country will get a break from all of the active weather this weekend through early next week before the next storm system develops out west. 00z GFS continues the trend started by the 18z run this afternoon of developing a cut-off low across the Four-Corners region early Wednesday, then moving it east into west Texas by early Thursday with quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across our part of the state. Even though it is too early to speculate on the details but upper level winds would support some strong to severe thunderstorm development if that scenario plays out. Still plenty of time to watch things though.

[djjordan]

Seeing what has happened so far over the past few days in the midwest, I'm actually afraid of severe weather season this year. A tornado like the one that hit Jarrell Texas comes to mind with this pattern.

[svrwx0503]

Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.

[srainhoutx]

Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.

Problems arise with the Euro 00Z solution with the split flow evolution and the cut off regime similar to what we experienced in January/early February. While the operational 00Z GFS appears too progressive, the Euro flipped to a much slower progression of the upper low and would bring heavy rains/storms into the region Friday and keep rain chances going well into the weekend. The ensembles are struggling as well and I suspect the answer lies somewhere in between. The long wave pattern is changing as the split flow pattern transitions from a late winter pattern to that of a Spring like regime. That said I do agree we'll need to monitor the situation during the early week time frame and there are indications that severe weather chances will increase during the late week period. My hunch is Thursday night into Friday will be the time frame to watch closely.

[wxman57]

So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun?

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

[Katdaddy]

A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.

[Ptarmigan]

A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.

Looks to be another interesting weather event. Perhaps severe weather and flooding.

[wxman57]

So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun?

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

DST is ok in April, by May the daylength is sufficient it isn't really needed, and it means the 0Z global models for possible 'fun'-derstorm outbreaks, and later, Cat 5s for PBI, come out after reasonable bed times.

I think standard time is the way to go.

We really need DST from Nov-March. I'd rather have 2-3 good hours of sunshine after 5pm than a sunny drive to work at 6:30. Who cares if the sun doesn't rise until 10am?

From looking at the models, they're still clueless about next weekend. Have to wait another 2-3 days before the weekend comes into better focus.