February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Continuing the 'theme' of the active week ahead, Winter Storm Recon has been tasked for a C-130 out of Alaska on tomorrow afternoon. My hunch is this will not be the last mission and there may well be G-IV missions tasked out of HI as well before all is said and done. These missions will assist all guidance in the upcoming pattern, so expect continued changes as that additional data is ingested. While we know that guidance cannot be trusted more than 3-4 days out, I do suspect as the MJO nears phase 1 later in the upcoming week, there will be subtle differences in just how the late week storm complex plays out. While some discount the DGEX, it can offer hints of what the pattern may offer and the 18Z run paints an interesting picture. We will see...


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 AM EST SAT 11 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. P56/ DROP 9 44.3N 151.0W/ 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK56
C. 12/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 13/0600Z.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z WRF/NMM suggests temps borderline at best for areas N of I-20 RE: wintry mischief. What that model does suggest is a very damp Monday...

[srainhoutx]

Our Pro Met hriverajr, is reporting heavy sleet in Del Rio this past hour...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5STksxSGHQ

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO THREE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-121900-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.120212T1200Z-120213T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
714 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     SLEET            2 NW DEL RIO            29.40N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.2 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GETTING A MIX OF SLEET AND ICE PELLETS ACCUMULATING ON
            GRASSY SURFACES.

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     SLEET            UVALDE                  29.22N  99.78W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        UVALDE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTED SLEET IN UVALDE RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     SLEET            2 WSW DEL RIO           29.37N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CREATING SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
            CONCRETE.

[Portastorm]

EWX just bumped up the WWA to a Winter Storm Warning for the Del Rio area and western Hill Country. This event is clearly not behaving as some suggested yesterday per the modeling.

[jasons2k]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

[srainhoutx]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

There is always a Debbie Downer in the bunch... Oh course they haven't had any real snow to speak of this year, so it makes these little events all the sweeter...

[hriverajr]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

We kind of laugh when you northerners have heat advisories for 95 degree weather in the summer

[Portastorm]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

C'mon Jason, you've been here long enough to know that it doesn't take much to seriously impact travel. And one to two inches in the Hill Country and/or Del Rio will definitely SERIOUSLY impact travel.

[jasons2k]

This native Floridian isn't trying to be Debbie Downer. I'm not a "northerner" - just self-aware. Just trying to be a realist. 1-2" of slush for a couple of hours is WWA material. Save the winter storm warnings for a situation that really means business. Otherwise the general public will always second guess the NWS. Just my $.02.

It shouldn't make seeing a little white outside any less fun.

[jasons2k]

Drivers that don't see snow every Winter, and the elevated sections of some highways in Austin, such as I-35 (San Antonio, for that matter) icing/slushing, it could be fairly high impact, although the weekend helps some.

And road impacts such as that are precisely the reason/criteria for winter weather advisories.

[srainhoutx]

This native Floridian isn't trying to be Debbie Downer. I'm not a "northerner" - just self-aware. Just trying to be a realist. 1-2" of slush for a couple of hours is WWA material. Save the winter storm warnings for a situation that really means business. Otherwise the general public will always second guess the NWS. Just my $.02.

It shouldn't make seeing a little white outside any less fun.

I guess you haven't seen what a little ice can do on the elevated areas of I-35 in the Austin Metro. Of course you went to Texas Tech and saw real snow, but I digress...Let them enjoy the moment...

[jasons2k]

DFW 1989, 1990, Ice Bowl 1993 (home for the holiday), 2000, 2003, 2004...yes, Ice is no fun.

[Portastorm]

Jason, I suggest you brush up on your NWS terminology.

WSW are issued when the precipitation is considered heavy. Seen the radar lately out in the warned area? Here's a link if you don't remember the terms:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s794c.htm

Just sayin' ...

[jasons2k]

Winter Weather Advisories: Issued for accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet which will cause significant inconveniences and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to life-threatening situations.

That's exactly what this is...and the radar returns are exaggerated due to the sleet.

[srainhoutx]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

We kind of laugh when you northerners have heat advisories for 95 degree weather in the summer

Nice video, hriverajr...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXMK6cxMH84

[Portastorm]

Winter Weather Advisories: Issued for accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet which will cause significant inconveniences and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to life-threatening situations.

That's exactly what this is...and the radar returns are exaggerated due to the sleet.

Aye carumba! You and wxman57 are two peas in a pod!

Steve and I will let EWX know that you disapprove of their actions this morning.

[hriverajr]

Where the hec is wxman57?

[jasons2k]

I'm certain they will take notice

In all seriousness, enjoy the fun. I hope you guys in Austin do get to see some white.