TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Invest 90L NW Caribbean Southern Gulf Non Tropical
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srainhoutx
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It would be interesting what 90L becomes. It could be a tropical storm, which would be the second time a tropical storm formed in February. The last time it happened was Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Groun ... ical_storm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Groun ... ical_storm
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TexasBreeze
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24 KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24 KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
