December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[djmike]

27 for a low here in Beaumont! Big time bust according to what NWS LC forecasted for us. They had us for 33! Have a feeling tonights temps will be a bust aswell! We'll see...

[srainhoutx]

I just took a look at the obs across the area. Galveston came in with a 33F. Victoria recorded 23F. IAH and Hobby recorded their first freezing temps, so the freeze warning verified.

[Katdaddy]

31F in League City with lots of frost. I am ready for snow or Spring!

[biggerbyte]

28 here in Porter. We should beat these numbers tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Widespread freeze across the area this morning with low temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20’s for most areas to near 30-33 along the beaches under clear skies and modest NW winds. Interestingly both Victoria and Port Lavaca fell to 23 this morning although the Victoria sensor looks to be malfunctioning, both of these sites were about 3-5 degrees colder than surrounding obs, but then Corpus managed 26 so it looks like a fairly decent freeze along the coastal plains this morning. A few lows this morning:

Bush IAH: 30
Hobby: 33
Sugar Land: 28
College Station: 26
Tomball: 28
Conroe: 29
Wharton: 28
Palacios: 27
Bay City: 30
Crockett: 30
Huntsville: 29
Austin Berg: 22
San Antonio: 28
Cotulla: 25

High pressure in control of the weather over the state with cold NW winds flowing SE off the snow covered plains of NW TX this morning which will result in a very slow warm up today even with full sun. Expect highs to only touch 50 early this afternoon and then begin a rapid decline this evening. All of the area will freeze again tonight, but lows will be about the same as this morning under clear skies and light winds. Most sensitive vegetation has likely already been frozen and we are not looking at a hard freeze, so no warnings are likely for Thursday AM.

If you like the sun take advantage of it today as the rest of the forecast looks to turn cloudy, cold, and damp. Nearby sub-tropical jet extending from the central Pacific across S TX will result in a gradual overrunning of moisture over the cold surface dome starting later Thursday. As moisture begins to spread back across the surface cold dome, clouds will increase from south to north late Thursday with most areas cloudy by Thursday evening. Weak front will cross the region on Friday and this boundary combined with ongoing isentropic lifting of moisture over the surface cold dome will support a slight chances of showers mainly from Wharton to Galveston and southward.

Front moves off the coast Friday afternoon and with continued sub-tropical jet overhead and a newly developing storm over the SW US, south TX coastal surface trough is forecasted to develop Saturday into Sunday. SE winds above the surface will swing moisture northward over the cold dome at the surface while developing surface low near/ESE of Brownsville will lock NNE to NE surface winds in place keeping the cold surface air in place. Saturday will likely be the best of the two weekend days with Sunday featuring more clouds and rainfall. Expect to see isolated showers Saturday from Matagorda Bay southward and then more widespread light rain/drizzle Sunday across much of the area. Highs will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall coverage over the weekend, but the trend is pointing toward more clouds and rain helping to keep highs in the lower 50’s, some areas may not get out of the 40’s either day under thicker clouds.

Surface trough develops into a full blow coastal low by Monday and begins to skirt NE along the TX offshore waters. This is a classic coastal track for widespread rains Sunday night into Monday night with cold surface temperatures. May see some decent thunderstorm chances near the coast/offshore Monday depending on where the low tracks. Inland mostly a widespread light to at times moderate rainfall. Temperatures will be on the cold side with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 40’s/50’s. With the air column saturated and little cold air advection in the Sun-Mon night time period this will be an all liquid system. Still a few days out on this feature and the models have been differing on timing and how quickly things ramp up and then move northeast. With energy still back to our SW Monday, expect the slower ejection of the trough and coastal low, so this may linger rain chances into next Tuesday.

Interestingly enough we have fallen into a fairly wet pattern of late with widespread rain making system about every 2-4 days…a pattern more common during TX El Nino years instead of La Nina. Recent rains seem to be tied to an enhancement of tropical convection in the central Pacific and the downstream affect of a more moisture filled sub-tropical jet stream over TX. Do not expect this pattern to last much beyond late December, so we will take the rains as they come for now, as a drier La Nina pattern should begin to return toward the start of 2012.

[srainhoutx]

Hard Freeze Warning out for tonight/tomorrow morning for our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...
...FREEZE WARNING FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AFTER
SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMMENCE...RESULTING IN AN AREA WIDE
FREEZE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-080600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0012.111208T0300Z-111208T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
HARDIN-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...
LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
...AND RANGE FROM 24 TO 27 BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS...RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT EXPOSED
PIPES...PLANTS...AND PETS.

[wxman57]

I just took a look at the obs across the area. Galveston came in with a 33F. Victoria recorded 23F. IAH and Hobby recorded their first freezing temps, so the freeze warning verified.

Hobby did reach freezing last week when all other locations around hit 32 or lower but IAH was 34F. Here is the plot from the 28th of Nov at Hobby:

http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=305 ... 1,spaitg:1

[srainhoutx]

I just took a look at the obs across the area. Galveston came in with a 33F. Victoria recorded 23F. IAH and Hobby recorded their first freezing temps, so the freeze warning verified.

Hobby did reach freezing last week when all other locations around hit 32 or lower but IAH was 34F. Here is the plot from the 28th of Nov at Hobby:

I knew that HGX was reviewing that temp at Hobby, but failed to see what the final outcome was. Thanks for the information, wxman57.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in the Corpus Christi area...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
152 PM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT.

TXZ229>234-240>247-080400-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FZ.W.0007.111208T0300Z-111208T1500Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...
ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
152 PM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 31
DEGREES ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON
AVERAGE FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS. AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION AND EXPOSED PIPES ARE
MOST AT RISK DURING THIS FREEZE.

[wxman57]

I knew that HGX was reviewing that temp at Hobby, but failed to see what the final outcome was. Thanks for the information, wxman57.

I think they better review the thermometer placement and calibration at IAH again. It doesn't make sense that IAH was 34 and all around them was 28-30 deg temps on the 28th.

[sleetstorm]

Rain chances do not look good this time. Only slight opportunities.

[biggerbyte]

Mid. 30s in Porter at 7:30 pm. Going to be a cold night.

[biggerbyte]

Hard freeze warning for Monrgomery County and points north and east.

Houston; Liberty; Montgomery; Polk; San Jancinto; Trinity; Walker


...HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT.

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY. * TIMING AND IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AND WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 22 AND 25 DEGREES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 10 TO 12 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 9 AM THURSDAY.

[srainhoutx]

Another very chilly morning across SE TX with temps in the upper 20's N and mid 30's closer to the Coast. A weak onshore flow should begin today and increasing clouds seem to be in order as the afternoon/evening wears on. Temps should moderate some has high pressure moves off to the E. Another short wave trough with an attending frontal boundary is sliding down the Plains. A modified Canadian cold front should pass during the day late Friday. The fly in the ointment will be a possible coastal trough forming as the frontal boundary stalls just offshore over the weekend. Cloudiness and possible over running showers may develop with chilly NE winds at the surface. There is still some question as to if and when a coastal low will form and exactly where that feature would form late in the weekend. Guidance continues to struggle with the zonal flow and upper air features as well. The models suggest yet another upper low to our W near California, but the eventual track is uncertain. Due to uncertainty of embedded disturbances riding along the Sub Tropical Jet that will remain close by, the forecast remains challenging at best. The GFS would bring a stronger disturbance across the S Plains while the Euro/Canadian suggest a track into the Central Plains and are weaker with that disturbance. As we have seen, these cut off upper air features and troughs to our W, they create model mayhem. So it appears there are more questions than answers in the medium range forecast. The main system to watch in the upcoming weekend will be the coastal low/trough and exactly if and where it will form. A strong Western Gulf disturbance would tend to give us clouds and shower chances with chilly temps. We'll see what the guidance offers later today and tomorrow,, but expect more 'fine tuning' in this hectic unusual pattern that is not typical in a weak/moderate La Nina.

[djmike]

26.6 for a low today in Beaumont! NWS LC was pretty close. They forecasted 27f. Stay warm!

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another frigid morning across the region with temperatures at or below freezing for most of the areas and in the low to mid 20’s over the northeast counties, including a 24 at Conroe and 23 at Lufkin.

600am Temps:
IAH: 29
Sugar Land: 30
Tomball: 27
Huntsville: 29
Brenham: 27
College Station: 32
Palacios: 29
Victoria: 27
Angleton: 30
Port Lavaca: 28


High pressure overhead this morning is starting to move eastward today and this will result in the low level winds turning more east and southeast…this is already happening in some areas this morning especially near the coast and around Matagorda Bay. Clouds will begin to increase this afternoon and early evening as moisture increases off of the western Gulf of Mexico with cloudy skies expected overnight. Weak front will move across the area on Friday helping to lower overnight lows for Saturday morning back into the low to mid 30’s. There will be a very slight chance of light rain Friday along the frontal boundary, but think most locations will remain dry.

A fairly decent day on Saturday as weak ridging behind the front dries out at least the NE ½ of the region with partly cloudy skies. Areas SW of Houston may remain more cloudy than sunny on Saturday with weak overrunning moisture starting to surge northward from a western Gulf coastal trough anchored near the S TX coast. Forecast becomes increasingly difficult post Saturday as models are not handling the placement nor intensity of the developing coastal trough along the lower TX coast very well. More aggressive runs yesterday have backed away overnight and delayed the movement NE of this feature into the early-mid part of next week. Feel rain chances for Sunday will remain further to the south over the coastal bend and deep south TX, with maybe a few showers into the Matagorda Bay region. Rest of the area will likely only have extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures.

Into next week, forecast will hinge on how quickly the coastal trough moves NE and when a developing upper level storm over the SW US ejects into the plains. Position of the SW US upper level system favors downstream southwest flow aloft over TX with embedded vort maxes or impulses within the sub-tropical jet. Increasing Gulf moisture through much of early-mid next week combined with these jet stream disturbances will likely result in some enhanced rain chances, but when, where, and how much is questionable as timing of such fine features is difficult this far in advance. For now will go with 30% rain chances each day Sun-Wed and increase the chances when it becomes clearer when such disturbances will cross the region. As for temperatures slow warming each day with highs possibly back into the 70’s by next Wednesday, but much of the temperature forecast will be highly based on how strong the coastal troughing develops and its ability to keep the cold low level air mass locked in place into next week. A strong coastal trough will result in more clouds and cooler temperatures with a weaker trough allowing better defined SE flow to increase warmth and humidity off the Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

OT-

when did all 4 of the regular members not deputized by SRain as admins, ie, us proles, get black and bolded screen names?

See what you miss when you're not around. We are making some changes regarding our board platform and also preparing for a possible board upgrade. At the right time, I'll have further information regarding this. And for the record all of our regular members are highlighted in black. All 700+...

[randybpt]

Looks like our rain chances have diminished somewhat for Sunday into
Monday.

[Mr. Weather]

Any chance for Snow Mid week into the weekend of next week for Denver Colorado ? and west into the ski resorts ?

[srainhoutx]

Any chance for Snow Mid week into the weekend of next week for Denver Colorado ? and west into the ski resorts ?

Actually there is a chance that the Ski Areas of CO into Denver could see some snow mid next week. The Euro has been suggesting the storm track from the SW would favor some snow.