La Nina Pattern for 2012

[rnmm]

It might be too early to ask this question and if it is please feel free to delete my post. My question is, with another La Nina predicted for next year's hurricane season (if I heard and read right), will that mean the Gulf will be "protected" like it was this year or was the high we were under all summer protect us from tropical disturbances? I am just trying to make sense of this past hurricane season. Thank you in advance!

[wxman57]

It might be too early to ask this question and if it is please feel free to delete my post. My question is, with another La Nina predicted for next year's hurricane season (if I heard and read right), will that mean the Gulf will be "protected" like it was this year or was the high we were under all summer protect us from tropical disturbances? I am just trying to make sense of this past hurricane season. Thank you in advance!

I'll be attending the AMS's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Florida next April. One of the questions I hope is answered is just what caused the decrease in instability across the Gulf/Caribbean this past season. I'll be talking to Phil Klotzbach about that. My theory is that a pocket of quite warm SSTs just off the MX coast was responsible for both the high frequency of hurricanes/major hurricanes there and the dry/sinking air across the Gulf/Caribbean. So the key may be to monitor near-shore SSTs in Nino 1 and 2 this spring to see if that warm pocket is cooling. Current trend is cooling there.

[rnmm]

Thank you WxMan. I will be looking forward to learning what you know about this topic in April. Please believe me when I say I DO NOT want a hurricane for our area, but I cannot help but worry about the continuing drought, and what we will be facing if we have another summer like we did this year. If it is in fact cooling, will that at least help with our rain chances next Spring/Summer? I am trying to read up on La Nina and its impacts on weather, but some of the information is over my head. I just wasn't sure if it was a combo of La Nina and the High that kept us from receiving rain. I know I shouldn't "borrow trouble" and my worrying is not going to help or fix anything, but I had friends, as I am sure others did too, who lost their home in one of the wildfires. I am hoping for everyone's sake the drought ends soon. I know predicting when it might is not something that can be said with 100% certainty.

Enough blabbering from me now

Thank you so much for taking the time to respond to my post. I appreciate it! Now let's enjoy this cooler weather!

[Ptarmigan]

Since, we are in our third La Nina winter since 2010, I think by summer of 2012, we could be Neutral or possibly El Nino. El Nino occurs in 3 to 7 year intervals. I would not be surprised if El Nino occurs in 2012.

The 1900 Hurricane Season was an El Nino season. It was the year that the Great Galveston Hurricane occurred. 1900 is one the wettest years for Southeast Texas.