November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[Portastorm]

Checking in from just west of most of you ... getting some beneficial rain in Austin this morning. Most areas reporting 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch with rain still falling. Nothing severe just some heavy rain and frequent CG lightning. I'll blow it your way now!

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the N and W...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

TXZ173-193-194-209-223-225-151830-
BASTROP-FAYETTE-GONZALES-LAVACA-LEE-WILLIAMSON-
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BASTROP...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WILLIAMSON...WESTERN LEE...NORTHWESTERN LAVACA...NORTHEASTERN
GONZALES AND WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1136 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELGIN TO BASTROP TO
CISTERN TO SHINER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
MOULTON...
ELGIN...
SMITHVILLE...
FLATONIA...
SCHULENBURG...
LA GRANGE...
GIDDINGS...
LEXINGTON...
CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE...
MULDOON...

[TexasBreeze]

is everything driffting to the north? instead of moving east?

Yeah looks like that to me too. Definately nothing impressive about a few showers moving up from gulf.

[brazoriatx]

is everything driffting to the north? instead of moving east?

Yeah looks like that to me too. Definately nothing impressive about a few showers moving up from gulf.

might turn out to be another hyped event with a hit or miss shower here or there,im not impressed

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST.

* AT 1224 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHULENBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGH HILL...FREYBURG...SWISS
ALP...DUBINA AND AMMANNSVILLE.

[brazoriatx]

looks like ppl north of hou will get the majority of the rainfall,why is there a 70% chance? should be like 30% chance of spotty showers

[srainhoutx]

has anyone got any rain yet? im watching everything miss us lol

Aggieland has seen some rain. Just starting to sprinkle up here in NW Harris County with darkening skies to my SW.

[Andrew]

has anyone got any rain yet? im watching everything miss us lol

Aggieland has seen some rain. Just starting to sprinkle up here in NW Harris County with darkening skies to my SW.

Yep getting some rain up here. Storms seem to be converging to the south of here. Lets see how much rain we get.

[srainhoutx]

Getting some rumbles of thunder now. You folks down S in Brazoria County may need to keep an eye on that cell just moving inland W of Freeport.

[srainhoutx]

Ground stop at IAH just issued by the FAA, so there are storms moving in...

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC201-152000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0121.111115T1933Z-111115T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
133 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 129 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMBALL...
OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF KATY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO HOOKS AIRPORT.

[weatherguy425]

Storms definitely getting their act together. Watch for damaging winds in bowing segments as well as rotation in notches between cells.

[mckinne63]

Getting some rain in Stafford. Was really coming down for a few minutes, than the sun came out, now it's clouding up again.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
144 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 138 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE
STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO HUNTSVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

Storm near Manvel in N Brazoria County/S Harris County may need to be watched. Edit to add: also near Bellaire/Galleria area

[redneckweather]

That's it...the fat lady has sung...the party is over...nothing to see here. Carry on! It was fun while it lasted though. It looks like I was pretty good on rain totals. I might of picked up a half inch at the house.

[srainhoutx]

That's it...the fat lady has sung...the party is over...nothing to see here. Carry on! It was fun while it lasted though. It looks like I was pretty good on rain totals. I might of picked up a half inch at the house.

Looks like Katy was the winner with 1.88 inches so far. Some general 1 inch amounts for the N and W side with some isolated near 1.75 inches just N off the N Loop. Actually not a bad call since the amounts were forecasted to be in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch totals, with isolated 1-2 inch amounts possible. Picked nearly and inch in my back yard. I'll take it.

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[txflagwaver]

Still waiting for the rain out here

[biggerbyte]

Getting nasty here in Porter, Montgomery County.

[wxman666]

Replacement Tornado WW possible



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885...

VALID 152030Z - 152230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885
CONTINUES.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS ACROSS SERN TX ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
WITH INCREASING ECHO TOP HEIGHTS AND MESOCYCLONES ON A FEW CELLS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW HAS FORMED NEAR THEN NRN EDGE
OF A LINE OF STORMS...WHICH REMAINS BROKEN. THERE IS LITTLE WLY PUSH
BEHIND THIS LINE...THUS STORMS MAY REMAIN CELLULAR RATHER THAN
LINEAR. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BASE VELOCITIES ON RADARS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN
OUTFLOWS OF 30-40 KT.

THE LATEST HOUSTON VAD WIND PROFILE DOES SHOW SOME LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING STORMS AND MESO-LOW WITH 0-1 SRH
AROUND 200 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES VERY POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES...WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SLOW
UPDRAFT GROWTH AND ACCELERATIONS.

A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY CYCLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO. WITH MODERATE SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME OF
THESE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
SERN TX INTO LA. THUS...ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN A FEW
HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...