November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

An upper air disturbance is making an approach from the SW. I'm seeing some reports of elevated rains and even a rumble of thunder or two coming out of Corpus Christi WFO. Perhaps a sprinkle our two tonight as the short wave passes overhead for our area...

[biggerbyte]

Wow! KDFX radar shows the rain very nicely. This area is heading towards our general area. Classic winter setup for frozen precipitation had this front been much stronger, and this was January.

LOL

[srainhoutx]

While this is still several days out, guidance has been hinting of yet another severe weather event across part of the Lone Star State and points NE. The timing has been the issue between the Euro and GFS, but it does appear that it will be something to monitor early next week...

[wxman57]

Yep, another stormy Tuesday across Texas next week. Perhaps with the main action a bit farther south this time.

[srainhoutx]

A rather impressive storm system taking shape off the West Coast. It sure has a decent tap of sub tropical moisture and will be a slow evolving storm complex. There is also a favorable MJO phase heading E and that should help with rainfall chances across much of the State...

[srainhoutx]

It looks like some of the normal cool locales will see their first frost of the season this morning. Hooks ihas dropped to 37 and Conroe.is 33 at this hour. We'll see if the morning lows reach a freezing 32F before sunrise.

[srainhoutx]

We had some light frost up here in NW Harris County this morning. It looks like Hooks dropped to 35 and Conroe managed to drop to 30.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is trending toward a Euro solution of an open trough with imbedded showers/storms along and ahead of a Pacific frontal boundary. Guidance is struggling in the medium range as we saw earlier in the week, so fingers crossed that we see some rainfall in this progressive pattern...

[srainhoutx]

Welcome to a weak La Nina Pattern, AZ. As I stated earlier in this thread, there are hints of a nice cool down E of the Rockies near Thanksgiving into early December. Keep an eye on late December into January. That is when things could get real interesting. Stay tuned as they say...

[Belmer]

I DEMAND ANSWERS. AS SOMEONE ELSE STATED IN THE OTHER THREAD, 80S IN HOUSTON IN NOVEMBER IS NOT TYPICAL,,ITS TOO WARM. WE GO FROM FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE 80S?? LA NINA LA NINA BLAH BLAH,,PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BS. I DONT BUY IT.
THATS TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE SWING. WE NEED COLDER WEATHER NOW. WE NEED SNOW CHANCES NOW.
I MEAN COME ON ,A PACIFIC FRONT? NO COLD AIR. A HIGH OF 75??? AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NOVEMBER?? THATS RIDICULOUS AND TOO WARM. WHAT KIND OF A NOVEMBER FRONT ONLY DROPS HIGH TEMPS TO 75 AFTER IT PASSES? THATS PATHETIC.
I DEMAND MORE POSITIVE ANALYSIS FOR COLD. THIS 80S CRAP IS GETTING OLD

This is the state of Texas. We live in Houston after all. As us Texans know we have huge bipolar weather. In 2004 on our white Christmas snow storm, two days before that snow storm we were in the 80s for the highs, ...in December...right before Christmas. Now, 80s are not 'common' in November and December here in Houston, but they do happen and shouldn't come as a big shock for people when we do have them for the ones who have lived in Texas for many years or even their whole lives. 70's would be more common in November and 60's/50's would be common in December. Our weather can't always be "average". We're going to have cold days, we're going to have hot days. That's for anywhere in the country. I mean, 37 degrees in Houston this morning and colder outside of Houston in early to mid November? That's below average, way below average for this time of the year. You just need to realize we're going to have rollercoaster temperatures in Houston.
Now, as far as your, "WE NEED SNOW CHANCES NOW" statement, well, that's going to extreme. Snow has never, ever been recorded here in Houston for the month of November. Our earliest snowfall that we've ever seen was a few years ago on December the 4th which I believe broke the previous record set a year before that on December 10th. (Correct me if I'm wrong). Even seeing icy conditions or sleet in November is very, very unusual and not even sure if we've had that in the month of November.
Just be patient, I know we've had a hot and brutal summer and some are ready for the nice cold weather. Just relax and enjoy the fall weather before we get into winter. Because even though experts are predicting a warm winter for the south (warmer than average) I don't see that at all happening as we're getting way colder than normal and long range computer models keep wanting to sniff something for the southern parts here in the south. Meteorologist have predicted for two-three years now of a 'warmer than average' area for the southern states, including here in Texas, and that has by far not been the case. I mean, yes, we did have our "mild" days, but take last winter for example. We were in the teens for 3 straight nights. TEENS!
All I can say is keep watching the weather and stay tuned on here as some of the pros on here give their thoughts and analysis of what we can expect days from now enjoy what weather we have right now. After all, it is nice to start to finally see some rain not just here in Houston, but across the state of Texas as well.

[unome]

There is a cap locks key right above the shift key on most keyboards. Yo dijo...

If posting in all caps was blocked/not allowed there would be very few NWS/NHC/HPC/SPC messages posted here

If you can read them, you can likely read AZ's posts - just a "be friendly" suggestion...

[Ptarmigan]

I think there has been sleet or frozen rain in November in Houston in 1976.

[kennethb]

I think there has been sleet or frozen rain in November in Houston in 1976.

Here in Baton Rouge on November 28, 1976, I recall the sleet the afternoon of November 28. It was moderate sleet that fell for awhile, though temps I am sure were above freezing. Must have had some flakes later in the evening as the NWS indicates a trace of snow fall, the earliest for Baton Rouge:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 0&source=0

[srainhoutx]

SPC has a Slight Risk up for our area for Monday...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NRN MEXICO/NM/FAR W TX
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD THIS PERIOD...AND SHOULD
APPROACH THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SYSTEM ROUGHLY PHASED WITH A TROUGH
IN THE NRN STREAM...THE RESULTANT WILL BE A LARGE COMPOSITE TROUGH
AFFECTING MOST OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
NAM AND GFS RESULT IN SIMILAR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PATTERN.
GENERALLY HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A WEAK LOW INVOF THE ARKLATEX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS E TX. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA.

...E TX...
PERSISTENT NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO E
TX...AND TO SOME DEGREE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AS
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS E TX AND ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT -- SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE SUPERCELLS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH TIME APPEARS LIKELY...AND
ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM. THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD
WITH TIME...WITH SOME RISK POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR E AS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE.

..GOSS.. 11/12/2011

[srainhoutx]

There are some interesting trends in the 12Z guidance today regarding the Pacific disturbance. While chances for significant rainfall are not that great, the models are suggesting a bit stronger trough (500mb vort) crossing S TX on Monday. Timing still remains questionable as the Euro is now slower and the WRF/GFS solution are the quickest. We shall see how all this shakes out on Monday...

[biggerbyte]

Folks, there is not an "official" chance of rain today. However, don't be shocked if you see a shower or two. Porter, Montgomery County has already seen some showers today, and there are more streaming in off the gulf as I type this. As Srain has already mentioned, Monday will be the interesting day.

[srainhoutx]

A very interesting read from Austin/San Antonio this afternoon. As has been mentioned several times in this type of pattern, the guidance will throw curve balls and nothing will be set in stone until we see this storm system move onshore in the Baja Region and begin it's trek across Texas...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT NOVEMBER RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS TRENDS HAVE MADE A BIG JUMP TOWARD A SLOWER
TRACK OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY SET TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 15Z SREF AND THE 18Z
NAM RUNS SHOW EVEN SLOWER TRENDS THAN WAS SEEN IN THE 12Z
RUNS...SO THE SHIFT OF POPS TOWARD LATER PERIODS MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH. THE CULPRIT TO THIS SLOWING TREND APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER
JET PUNCHING INTO THE WESTERN US TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP CUT OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE CONSENSUS AND
TRENDS DOES SUGGEST ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE OFFERED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL
AS JUST A HINT IN THE HWO.

THE SLOWING STORM SYSTEM AND THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE
COULD PROMOTE A FEW CHALLENGES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE
PACIFIC FRONT ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER PACKAGES APPEARS TO BE A LESS
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE...WHILE A FRONTAL REINFORCEMENT FROM THE POLAR
AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE GAINING STRENGTH FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
TRANSLATE TO A COOLER AND MORE CLOUD COVERED PATTERN AS ONE WOULD
SEE IN A EL NINO STYLE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WITH LA NINA STILL
GOING STRONG...WILL STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

[niner21]

Oh, we're going to get tons, and I mean tons, of rain in northern montgomery county. How do I know? Easy, I have 3 homes starting this week and we're looking to start the dirt work on Monday. SOOOOO, we'll get a bunch of rain and kill off Monday. Then, we'll try and dig out of the pit and it'll be wet Tuesday from 3 inches of rain. Then it will dry out just enough to get trucks loaded on Wednesday and we'll come in and drive the trucks on the lots and make TONS of mud in the street and I'll get calls about the mess and how I need to wash down the entire street....

So, you are all welcome!! LOL!!!! (cry)...

Seriously, it's just my luck. (It will be bitter sweet if we get rain because I really need it but then I don't need it).

[unome]

you can see the ULL still off the Baja right now http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html using IR-convection enhancement shows the dry/moist air well (from Univ of Arizona for our worried friend ) and colder air moving in from Canada in the NW US

it's even on the EPac Marine Forecast from NHC



Pacific analysis shows it's moving SW with a monster high behind it



sure hope we get a soaking rain soon...

[srainhoutx]

The models are still struggling with the Baja disturbance this morning. I suspect part of the issue is the storm is still offshore and has not been sampled well and is lacking any RAOB (upper air data). Timing is still an issue, but it does appear that a meso complex will move out of the Hill Country Monday night as the disturbance/trough swings by and guidance is trending much cooler with the front that should follow on Wednesday...