September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[unome]

000
WWUS84 KHGX 272238
SPSHGX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011

TXZ212-213-272315-
HARRIS-WALLER-
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KATY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...KATY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3006 9593 3004 9566 2976 9577 2979 9582
2979 9585 2987 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 302DEG 5KT 2993 9589

$$

[jasons2k]

What a bizarre storm. It seems to be regenerating some after the initial cell collapsed. We had some lightning up here and now some light rain, but mostly strong gusty winds.

[biggerbyte]

Thunder and lightning. A few showers as well. After that it fell apart. What a teasing crock..

[mckinne63]

We had some gusty winds, but alas, no rain. It looked very promising for awhile. Mother Nature playing tricks on us again.

[tireman4]

CLIMATE...
WITH ONLY FOUR DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH...SEPTEMBER 2011 IS SET TO
BECOME ONE OF THE WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD ACROSS MUCH OF
INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR COLLEGE STATION...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER (THROUGH 9/26) HAS BEEN
83.4 DEGREES WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS 85.2 DEGREES SET IN 2005). IN
2011...COLLEGE STATION HAS HAD THEIR 1ST WARMEST APRIL...THEIR
10TH WARMEST MAY...THEIR 3RD WARMEST JUNE...THEIR 2ND WARMEST
JULY...AND THEIR 1ST WARMEST AUGUST.

FOR HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER (THROUGH 9/26) HAS BEEN
82.8 DEGREES WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS 83.4 DEGREES IN 2005). IN 2011...HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL HAS HAD THEIR 3RD WARMEST APRIL...THEIR 8TH
WARMEST MAY...THEIR 1ST WARMEST JUNE...THEIR 3RD WARMEST
JULY...AND THEIR 1ST WARMEST AUGUST.

FOR HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER (THROUGH 9/26) HAS BEEN
82.8 DEGREES WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS 84.5 DEGREES IN 2005...AND 2ND PLACE IS
82.9 DEGREES IN 1998). IN 2011...HOUSTON HOBBY HAS HAD THEIR 3RD
WARMEST MARCH... THEIR 2ND WARMEST APRIL...THEIR 8TH WARMEST
MAY...THEIR 2ND WARMEST JUNE...THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY...AND THEIR
1ST WARMEST AUGUST.

FOR GALVESTON...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER (THROUGH 9/26) HAS BEEN
82.5 DEGREES WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 15TH WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS 84.6 DEGREES IN 2005). IN
2011...GALVESTON HAS HAD THEIR 7TH WARMEST MAY...THEIR 1ST
WARMEST JUNE...THEIR 2ND WARMEST JULY...AND THEIR 1ST WARMEST
AUGUST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak and now very diffuse frontal boundary extends roughly from Shreveport to Huntsville to Del Rio this morning based of surface dewpoints. Water vapor loops shows short wave responsible for storm yesterday afternoon now over SE LA with additional short waves approaching the region from south of Big Bend and over KS/OK this morning. Additionally, water vapor shows a weak connection now with upper level moisture attached to Hurricane Hillary in the eastern Pacific spreading ENE into TX.

Combination of strong heating, weak frontal boundary, pooling moisture, and incoming lift from short waves will result in another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Once trigger temperatures in the mid 90’s are reached, expect to see rapid formation of thunderstorms near the frontal boundary that then move E to ESE across the area. 4km WRF shows storms developing over western LA around early afternoon and traveling SSW and then SW toward Galveston Bay….while possible, the incoming short waves from the W and NW may result in development in the region between Del Rio and Huntsville. While moisture in the sub cloud layer is increasing slightly over yesterday, there continues to be concern for dry lightening (see fire weather section below). In addition, the dry layer will also promote strong downburst winds and strong outflow boundaries with damaging winds possible up to 60mph. Given the dry and brittle tree canopy across SE TX from the ongoing drought, even 40mph winds may result in tree limbs falling. Storms should weakened similar to last evening in the 600-800pm range and dissipate by 900-1000pm.

Similar conditions are expected on Thursday with the threat for thunderstorms shifting more southward to along I-10 and points south as the weak boundary limps southward aided by today’s outflow. Much strong front will cross the region on Friday afternoon/night with a very dry and cool air mass in place for the weekend.

Fire Weather:

Travis County: Wildfire was started by lightening yesterday evening in western Travis County near the movie set of the Alamo. The fire rapidly burned 200 acres including most of the movie set. Several fire departments and TFS crews along with air support responded to this fire. Fire has unknown containment this morning.

Burnet County: Lightening induced fire began near HWY 183 and CR 215 and burned 40 acres of ranchland before local FD’s and US Forest Service crews brought it under control.

Threat for dry lightening will be slightly less today with deeper moisture in the mid levels. However, there continues to be the threat for lightening in and around thunderstorms to spark wildfires. Very strong and rapidly changing wind directions near storms will make for very dangerous fire weather conditions with rapid spread and erratic fire behavior. Greatest chances for dry lightening will be along and west of a line from College Station to Brenham to Smithville to San Antonio.

Friday-Sunday:
Very dry air mass and moderate northerly winds will promote elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across nearly the entire state. Cold front will cross the area on Friday with N/NNE winds increasing into the 15-20mph range behind the front and RH falling below 30%. Still a few days out, but conditions on Saturday and Sunday look favorable for fire growth and spread.

[redneckweather]

What a bizarre storm. It seems to be regenerating some after the initial cell collapsed. We had some lightning up here and now some light rain, but mostly strong gusty winds.

So you got some light rain out of it huh? Luck you.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF is suggesting some storms late this afternoon into the evening hours across SE TX...

[jasons2k]

What a bizarre storm. It seems to be regenerating some after the initial cell collapsed. We had some lightning up here and now some light rain, but mostly strong gusty winds.

So you got some light rain out of it huh? Luck you.

Some - but mostly just globs of mud. Looked at the windshield this morning and thought I was back in Lubbock.

[wxman666]

SPC Meso Discussion includes portions of the CWA. Severe weather watch possible.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2211.html

[redneckweather]

Nada on radar. Not gonna happen today.

[srainhoutx]

Nada on radar. Not gonna happen today.

I was a bit surprised that the SPC kept SE TX/SW LA in a Slight Risk with the 2:30 Update. The meso models were hinting early evening develoment, but that isn't looking too promising at this point.

[wxman666]

Nada on radar. Not gonna happen today.

I was a bit surprised that the SPC kept SE TX/SW LA in a Slight Risk with the 2:30 Update. The meso models were hinting early evening develoment, but that isn't looking too promising at this point.

Same here. Sometimes I wish I was in Norman to figure out what they are thinking, lol. They must think something is up.

[unome]

we were in the .75-1.0 area yesterday http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

could use that much every single day for the next month !

loop: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... radar.html

region - it's building to our west

[PaulEInHouston]

Here's hoping some of the lingering boundaries and outflow channels from this mornings storms to our East and S/E linger around and provide some focus for shower and thunderstorm development as it heats up later today. WV suggesting an impulse or two to our W/SW in Big Bend area in Westerly flow to help trigger some action later today. I'm "guessing" today is our best area wide chance of scattered activity.

[CAK]

Storms developing N/E and N/W... nada in the middle. I hope it starts filling in while it's hot outside...

[redneckweather]

I just missed a storm about a mile to my west. I'm about 2 seconds away from throwing my computer against the wall.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13
MILES NORTH OF CUT AND SHOOT...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLIS...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CUT AND SHOOT AND CONROE.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[CAK]

Woodlands about to get clobbered by a severe storm... Kingwood- bone dry! Argh (glass still 1/2 full we'll get something).

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...
ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI
CITY...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HEDWIG
VILLAGE AND FIRST COLONY.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.