September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[sleetstorm]

What does the weather look like for this year's Autumn?

[wxman57]

Now a warm winter, I can handle!

[srainhoutx]

The models are in fairly good agreement in the shorter range regarding the front on Thursday afternoon/evening crossing the area. There may be a chance of showers/storms with some increased moisture with the passing boundary. The weekend looks a little 'cooler' or less humid and then changes begin. We will need to see how things unfold as the GFS shows a wet pattern and the Euro is a bit dryer. There are some hints that Hilary, currently in the EPAC, could bend back NE and trek toward the Baja and across Texas in the longer range. We will see.

[redneckweather]

Man, the hill country west of San Antonio is getting nailed right now! Where did that come from? It doesn't look to be going anywhere fast either.


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap. ... thPaletteA

[srainhoutx]

The SPC is mentioning a chance very slight chance of storms this afternoon/evening for our area. It does appear that better chances will be to our W near Austin/San Antonio. Regarding Hilary in the EPAC. It's still too soon to write off any affects from that disturbance, IMO. We all know how things can change re: ridge placement and the synoptic pattern. The Pacific is very noisy right now and a transition is beginning to a pattern where the MJO will begin to influence the overall pattern. Some wrote off the effect of any MJO as it has been very quiet, but there are changes ahead and October could bring an interesting pattern. We will see...

SPC Update:

...LWR MS VLY AND CNTRL/SRN TX..
ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS...DISPERSED OVER MUCH OF NW TX AND OK AT
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARK REGIONS THIS
MORNING. EFFECTIVE CDFNT...AIDED BY MORNING OUTFLOW...WILL SURGE
INTO SCNTRL/ECNTRL TX AND LA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF SFC-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NWRN LA INTO SCNTRL TX...AND
FARTHER W ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SW TX MTNS AFTER 21Z.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN HEATING/STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY UPDRAFT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW/FRONT.

[Karen]

Where is fall

[wxman57]

Where is fall

Just step outside! A cool 70 degrees out there now with relative humidity only 80%. High today only in the low 90s. 15 degrees cooler than a month ago. I think it's downright pleasant now.

[redneckweather]

What's the GFS seeing in terms of precip on the end of your graph wxman? Thanks for posting that.

[wxman57]

What's the GFS seeing in terms of precip on the end of your graph wxman? Thanks for posting that.

That looks like a stalled-out front along the Gulf Coast next Thu/Fri resulting in the increased rain chances. It's pretty far out there to have much confidence that we'll actually see any rain, though. And note the vertical scale on the right only goes up to 1/2 inch. Total rain predicted is on the order of 1/2 to 3/4 inch, it appears.

[Karen]

I heard on the news this morning a high of 98 on Monday. I should have been a little bit more specific yes this morning felt great but 98 at the end of September? UGH!!!

Where is fall

Just step outside! A cool 70 degrees out there now with relative humidity only 80%. High today only in the low 90s. 15 degrees cooler than a month ago. I think it's downright pleasant now.

Not satisfied with this morning's "cold front"? Let's take a look at the latest GFS temperature forecast for the next 8 days. Take note that the ACTUAL highs and lows have been running about 3-5 degrees WARMER than these predicted 2 meter temperatures:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs.gif

[wxman57]

I heard on the news this morning a high of 98 on Monday. I should have been a little bit more specific yes this morning felt great but 98 at the end of September? UGH!!!

Yep, 98-100 degrees on Monday. Won't last too long, though - just Monday through Wednesday.

[mathman1970]

I heard on the news this morning a high of 98 on Monday. I should have been a little bit more specific yes this morning felt great but 98 at the end of September? UGH!!!

Yep, 98-100 degrees on Monday. Won't last too long, though - just Monday through Wednesday.

I just hope we are rewarded with a cool, slightly cold, fall/winter for withstanding one of the hottest summers on record. However, the pessimist in me says it will probably be 92 on Christmas day. This La Nina pattern can't last forever, can it???

[wxman57]

No, La Nina probably won't last forever. Possibly ending in January-February of 2013:

[South_Texas_Storms]

Where did you find that map wxman? It isn't on the CPC site that I look at.
So I'm hopeful that El Nino will return the winter of 2012-2013 and it will be a wet winter then! Better than nothing.

[wxman57]

Where did you find that map wxman? It isn't on the CPC site that I look at.
So I'm hopeful that El Nino will return the winter of 2012-2013 and it will be a wet winter then! Better than nothing.

Here you go. It's the Indian Ocean Dipole website out of Japan:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

[texoz]

Where did you find that map wxman? It isn't on the CPC site that I look at.
So I'm hopeful that El Nino will return the winter of 2012-2013 and it will be a wet winter then! Better than nothing.

Here you go. It's the Indian Ocean Dipole website out of Japan:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Speaking of dipoles, it will be interesting to see if the Arctic dipole emerges again and brings a very cold pool of air down to the southern US like last winter (February, I think?).

[sleetstorm]

Yes, cooler temperatures will be a welcome relief to many residents here in Texas, but I think that rain will be much more so. No callousness to anyone.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like rain chances will return mid week as a mid/upper low interacts with Hilary's moisture in the EPAC and a back door slow moving front combine to increase moisture across the southern half of Texas. Longer range guidance does suggest a drier period yet again as we move into the first weekend of October. There are still some hints that we will enter a changeable period as October begins and a long slumbering MJO awakens and lower pressures begin across the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Fingers crossed for some mid week showers.

[sambucol]

Any idea when we will get a real good shot of cold air here?

[tireman4]

It is scorching out there. Goodness. Went out to the parking lot to get in my car. Goodness. Here is the good news, I think..


IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS IN THE FORECAST...EXTENDED PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1