September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[redneckweather]

This is the second day in a row my house has missed the rain. I know it's still early in the day but the two cells near Lake Conroe right now split (east and west of me by a mile) and all I am getting is a light sprinkle. Talk about threading the needle.

[redneckweather]

It looks like Harris and Montgomery Counties are screwed for the rest of the day. Oh well, their is always tomorrow (which is what I said yesterday). lol

[Karen]

This is the second day in a row my house has missed the rain. I know it's still early in the day but the two cells near Lake Conroe right now split (east and west of me by a mile) and all I am getting is a light sprinkle. Talk about threading the needle.

Samething happened down south I looked at the radar and rain was headed my way then it just died moved south and nada again today. I just need to quit looking at the radar and the forecast and be suprised if it does rain.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail just received from Jeff:

At last decent rainfall coverage has returned to the region.

I netted a .96 yesterday the most 1 day rainfall at the house since June 22. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in a moist/tropical air mass over the region on the east side of a trough axis which extends from the Great Lakes to SW TX. Expect to continue to see development throughout the day as the air mass is uncapped and unstable and trigger temperatures are only in the mid 80’s. Little heating is needed to get things going in this tropical air mass. Best chances look to be along the coast through about mid afternoon where a low level convergent boundary is currently found and then development inland along and ahead of a weak frontal boundary/outflows from storms over C and NC TX that should develop late this afternoon under strong heating.

Air mass remains moist and unstable into Monday and expect periods of showers and thunderstorms to continue. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be possible. Rains will remain fairly scattered in nature and not everyone will see rainfall each day, but considering where we have been anything is better than nothing.

These rains and the higher RH will greatly help the fire situation across the region and no new fire starts are expected now that the ground fuels have been wetted in many areas. Would like to see more widespread rains as some locations have been missed both yesterday and so far today.

While the rains are extremely welcomed, it would take weeks of such a pattern to break the current exceptional drought, the amounts yesterday of .36 of an inch at KIAH did little to the massive – 28.87 rainfall deficit in place. It should be noted that Tomball now has a -35.89 inch rainfall deficit. It is going to take a lot more than a couple of rainy days to even make a dent in this drought!

[txflagwaver]

Rain missed us as well...

[ticka1]

Is heavy drizzle rain? That's what I got.

[biggerbyte]

Look at it this way. We all hoped for a pattern change. Got it. We needed a return of a moist flow. Got that too. The problem is the heavier rains are going to be hit and miss. We've had some nice triggers come along, and there will be more of those before Fridays end. Let's not give up until then. No? The extent of this rain event is more than I personally would have suggested. Maybe your turn is next. Welcome to weather 101. .

[biggerbyte]

One thing that concerns me, at least for today, is how the water vapor loop looks over Texas. Looks like dry air is being pulled in over the state from the S.W..

https://sites.google.com/site/lscamsnwa ... vapor-loop

[txsnowmaker]

Glad to see the sun and temperature rise. Hopefully this will help trigger some action.

[Katdaddy]

Picked up a whopping 0.07" during the morning while other areas recieved much more. No complaints though since I recorded 1.5" about a month ago when most of the area saw nothing. The sun is out heating the atmosphere which should lead to more showers and storms this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Noisy storm developing to my SW. Perhaps I can add the the 3/4 inch that fell early this morning.

[srainhoutx]

HGX lead forecaster 35 mentioned storms developing in the Slight Risk area of Central/N TX this afternoon/evening possibly moving into parts of SE TX during the night time hours. The SPC has a Meso Discussion for the area that will need to be monitored...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182059Z - 182130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX
DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SVR STORMS POSING A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS LIKELY.

AT 20Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD FROM NERN OK INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL TX. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY FLAT CU
FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS NEAR THE RED RIVER. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
SLOWLY DESTABILIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...UPPER VORT LOBE IS
SITUATED IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE REGION...LEADING TO NEGLIGIBLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM DURING THE SHORT TERM.
NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW
DURING THE NEXT HR.

..GARNER.. 09/18/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

09182011 mcd2189.gif

09182011 ww0853_radar_big.gif

[ticka1]

If the storms develop any chance they would move towards our area?

[srainhoutx]

If the storms develop any chance they would move towards our area?

Snip from the afternoon discussion...

LOOKS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN ACROSS SE TX FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HRS BEFORE
THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO LOUISIANA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
BEING SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM AROUND WICHITA FALLS TO FORT STOCKTON AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED WITH SUNSHINE WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -6 TO -8. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-2.1 INCHES. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE
4KM NMM-WRF AND THE NAM...SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING OVER CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO SE TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. HAVE BLANKETED 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

[txflagwaver]

Nothing...naught...zip...zilch...nada...goose egg...0...aught...diddly

[wxman57]

Rain much of the day here in SW Houston (Westbury). Not a lot, but after 0.88 yesterday another few tenths today. Ground nice and wet.

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. This means night time storms? That would be nice.

[txflagwaver]

OK...it sprinkled for about 30 minutes...not enough to water the grass and just enough to make the cars look dirtier

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MIDWAY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO MIDWAY.

[Ptarmigan]

Some areas in San Jacinto, Polk, and Liberty County got 6 inches of rain.