September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[Ptarmigan]

These wildfires are like cockroaches. When one is out, another one pops up and they are a real problem to deal with like cockroaches. Texas is got problems with cockroaches from Cockroach Dome and Cockroach Fires. Droughts are like cockroaches. I wish I can use RAID to kill the wildfires and ridge.

[biggerbyte]

What a distressing mess. Between the fires, watching everything die, and nothing to make rain for the forseeable future, I feel so helpless. So many have lost everything. Some have passed on. And for what? We just need some flippin' rain. Is that too much to ask for these days??

[randybpt]

The way September is setting up we might not get a trace of rain. Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't dry ground that helps it to get hotter work the same seems to me the drier the ground the colder the air can remain wouldn't a moisture rich ground retain more warmth than dry. Thus this may cause less moderation

[wxman57]

The way September is setting up we might not get a trace of rain. Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't dry ground that helps it to get hotter work the same seems to me the drier the ground the colder the air can remain wouldn't a moisture rich ground retain more warmth than dry. Thus this may cause less moderation

Just like the desert - hotter days/cooler nights.

[randybpt]

Ok..oldies what was that bet that Tyler made a while back about a banana suit.....what ever it was ill do it for 10 inches of RAIN

[texoz]

Obviously, everyone wants the drought to end, but at this point I'll settle just for a rainy day. I just looked back at the last four months for Austin and it was unreal.

Sept - no rain
Aug - no rain, "Trace" on one day
July - Trace on 4 different days, plus 0.01 one day and 0.04 on another, total for July 0.05
Jun - Trace on 1 day, then 1.99 and 0.02 on day before 1.99 for total of 2.01

For the last 103 days Austin has only had one day where it rained more than 1/20th of inch.

[randybpt]

Do meteorologist really get paid to.forecast this kind of weather...lol
Ok lets see how I can word this forecast dry and hot....hot and dry..no rain and very warm...parched and scalding.

[Kludge]

Do meteorologist really get paid to.forecast this kind of weather...lol
Ok lets see how I can word this forecast dry and hot....hot and dry..no rain and very warm...parched and scalding.

I was thinking the same thing over the weekend.

You know, at my company, when business dries up they lay people off. What are the odds that the government lays off any weather guys in places and times when a forecast could be provided by an 8 year old?

I keep thinking of that movie Groundhog Day, where the guy wakes up to the same thing every morning.

[svrwx0503]

Not to get anyone's hopes up too much, but I am possibly seeing some good news in the not too far future...I say possibly because it is still about a week out and we have seen things fall apart only a few days out with this very persistent synoptic pattern in place. Anyways, the extended GFS and ECMWF both are indicating a slow increase in moisture levels through the end of the week which should also slowly moderate our temps but not before a couple of days at or slightly above the century mark. By early next week a strong s/w trough is advertised to eject east across the Rockies and into the central plains driving a rather strong front south into north and central Texas. SHOULD this scenario pan out, it could finally bring some decent rains into the state. Below are some snippets from area AFD's this afternoon.

HGX

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED ORDINARY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TRIGGER MAY NOT COME BY THE WAY OF A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE OR BOUNDARY BUT FROM THE LARGE SCALE. THE GFS AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK SAGGY WESTERN 5H HGT TROF THAT MAY SLOWLY ERODE OUR UPPER DOME OF RIDGING. THIS SET-UP FAVORS MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAKENS SUBSIDENCE ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCALIZED BREEZES TO BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL.

DWF

BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
ADVERTISING A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT A
STRONGER FRONT WOULD BE LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES. STILL ALOT OF TIME BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.

AUS

A SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEXT MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH A COLD FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[texoz]

Someone's predicting rain? Might as well predict Dewey over Truman.

[PaulEInHouston]

Models still showing the same this morning it appears, even the ensembles. Looks like first chance of rain would come late this week or over the weekend with SE flow returning and mainly sea breeze/outflow driven convection, assuming the cap erodes enough. Progs still advertise a cold front middle next week with at least a better chance of showers/thunderstorms associated with the front. Should this happen, I think Texas will probably be locked out of the possibility of any more tropical systems this season. Will the pattern change become permanent to allow drought relief...that's iffy at best! Cooler temperatures appear likely next week, as for overall drought relief, doubtful...

[biggerbyte]

NWS has already removed the rain chances for Friday and Saturday, and have left 20% chances for Sunday and Monday. I expect for good reason. This pattern is just not predictable more than a day or two out. I've stopped trying.

Here is to hoping, this time, we have some actual real chances. I'd probably swear someone was in a tree sweating on my head if we were to get even just a rain drop.

[texoz]

NWS has already removed the rain chances for Friday and Saturday, and have left 20% chances for Sunday and Monday. I expect for good reason. This pattern is just not predictable more than a day or two out. I've stopped trying.

Here is to hoping, this time, we have some actual real chances. I'd probably swear someone was in a tree sweating on my head if we were to get even just a rain drop.

That would be me in the tree, and you need to clean your gutters and I noticed a lot of dust on top of your furniture, not that I was looking.

[Ptarmigan]

Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico
http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/8/4/01 ... rticle.htm

The Indians in Mexico were decimated in the 16th century when Spain arrived. Most died from diseases from smallpox and a hemorrhagic fever known as cocoliztli. This great plague occurred during a massive drought in the 16th century. Some people think drought contributed to the Black Death pandemic.

http://books.google.com/books?id=NgF42W ... th&f=false

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:...fingers crossed...

Increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures!

Weak frontal boundary is drifting southward across Texas this morning with widespread moderate to at times heavy rainfall over western TX from near the Big Bend to Amarillo. Front is still north of SE TX, but drifting southward and should reach our northern counties in the next few hours and approach I-10 by early evening. Upper level ridge that has been parked over the region the last few days will be shifting southward today and this will not only help lower afternoon highs, but also allow a few showers/thunderstorms to develop with the front. High temperatures today will run 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly a factor of increased cloud cover over any weak cold air advection.

Not expecting widespread rainfall today, just a few isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Hwy 105. 4km WRF shows most of the activity over our NE counties and then out west across the Rio Grande plains.

Front lifts back northward on Friday, but upper ridge does not build back into the region. Instead high pressure over the SE US will help induce a deep SE flow off the Gulf of Mexico pulling in more tropical like moisture. The result should be a few showers along the seabreeze front each afternoon, but for now will not go much higher than 20% since there is not a lot of tropical moisture out over the Gulf.

Early next week may feature better rain chances depending on your model of choice. The GFS brings a front into TX and stalls it north of our area along the I-20 corridor while the ECMWF drives a cold front deep into TX with widespread rains. Will take a blend of the two solutions and bring a front further south than the GFS but not as far south as the ECMWF. With increasing moisture over the region and the prospects for upstream thunderstorms to possibly send outflows our way, 30% should cover the area for now, but this could be raised in the next few days.

At least there is a chance for rain, now if it would actually rain that would be even better!

Fire Weather:
Moving in the right direction on this aspect as increasing RH and lowering winds should help not only with the ongoing fires, but also the threat of new starts. Winds will be variable and shifting around today near/behind the weak cool front. Afternoon RH should bottom out in the 30-40% range or 10-20% higher than yesterday. Ground fuels remain extremely dry and this continues to be the biggest drawback, so while fires may start their forward spread and growth may not be as great as in the past few days.

Conditions get even better over the weekend and early next week as RH increases more and better chances of rainfall appears over the region.

One concern will be lightening and the threat for lightening induced fires over the next few days, but this threat appears low to moderate at this time.

[redneckweather]

Rain is in the forecast from now until next week and this board is DEAD. Wake the heck up people! Where is Ed and his half empty glass of optimism (or is it half full) when you need it?

[biggerbyte]

Probably because we have been here many times this summer. It is still all model talk, and no one believes it anymore. I suppose at some point if we keep doing this we'll get lucky and actually have it be accurate. Models, or not, the chances are there. Things are really going to need to moisten up here pretty quick. The 20% the NWS gives us is probably spot on, at this juncture.

[srainhoutx]

I've been waiting to see if there would be some agreement in model world regarding our rain chances. The guidance does suggest a return of a SE flow as the current boundary stalls and retreats back N over the weekend. The 12Z GFS has trended toward what the Euro was showing yesterday bringing a storm system and attending stronger frontal boundary a bit closer to the area. What is encouraging is the agreement that the ridge will weaken and the Gulf will open up to help increase moisture that has been the big missing ingredient for many months. We will see...

[redneckweather]

I agree BB. Everyone is gun shy on posting since we have been down this road many of time before this summer. Models show rain a week out then as the time gets closer they take it away.

Srain, THIS TIME I am like the wetter scenario for next week with a stronger storm system. Let's take today for example. Correct me if I'm wrong but did any of the models show the current front coming down making it down to I-10...this far south? It will retreat tomorrow which is when things should start to moisten up from Friday till the time the front arrives next week. That is plenty of time to get things nice and juicy in my opinion. For the first time in a long time......interesting times ahead.

[jasons2k]

I'm resigned to "I'll believe it'll rain again when I see rain outside the window"

The lead-up to Lee (before it was Lee) and promises of copious rains - finally - and then nothing - just about killed me.