September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[sleetstorm]

I thought I would volunteer to initiate a new thread on next month weatherwise. What rain or cold front do all of the computer models depict for alleviation from this drought and scorching heat?

[unome]

since Thur is Sep 1st, thought I would post it here - 12z is in Aug thread, here's the 00z, looks even better - all summer long tho I noticed the 00z would give a glimmer of precip only to have hopes dashed later by the 12z, anyone else notice this or know why, if so?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif

[unome]

from HGX discussion http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

OTHERWISE...CAME IN TODAY EXPECTING ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ROUTINE
FCST...BUT THINGS ARE TURNING OUT DIFFERENTLY. PRIOR TO TODAY...THOUGHT
WAS THAT SURGE OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WOULD SLIDE INTO THE REGION
THURS MORNING (WHICH STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE) AND UPPER
WEAKNESS TAKES SHAPE OVER CNTL/ERN TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND (NOW
QUESTIONABLE AS TO THE POSITIONS). MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT
VARIOUS FORMS OF SFC CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THURS INTO
NEXT WEEK BENEATH THE H5 LOW. MOST SHOW THIS/THESE FEATURES
WAFFLING OFF THE COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME SHOWING IT STRENGTHENING TO A HIGHER END TS. WOULD GENERALLY DISMISS
THIS IF IT WERE JUST AN INDIVIDUAL MODEL...BUT ALL SEEM TO BE HINTING
AT SOME SORT OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, CANADIAN).
BUT NONE ARE HINTING AT A PREFERRED TIME FRAME NOR LOCATION WHICH
IS UNDERSTANDABLE THIS FAR OUT. FWIW - GFS AND ECMWF DO MOSTLY KEEP
WHATEVER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ALSO PUSHES A FRONT OFF THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...JUST SOMETHING THE WATCH IN THE DAYS TO
COME.

THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY EFFECT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE TX. SHOULD SOMETHING
ACTUALLY BECOME ORGANIZED LATER IN THE WEEK OR WEEKEND...IT WOULD
TEND TO CONFINE THE HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE RATHER
THAN BEING AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EVERYWHERE AS EARLIER THOUGHT.
THINK THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO JUST SLIGHTLY TRIM
POPS BACK ACROSS N/NW AREAS BUT LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST AS IS
AND HOPEFULLY WAIT FOR BETTER GUIDANCE. 47

[biggerbyte]

Has anyone seen Hope? Is she living in this thread? She sure hasn't been in the "other one".

[mckinne63]

I've given up hope Rain, rain, rain we need rain. I'll take the cooler temps, but we still need rain.

[tireman4]

Ahh. Love that Summer feeling. The grass is dead. The trees are dead. The water is dried up. Oh but wait, there is hope. Hey, the STREAK is still alive. No, not Ray Stevens's The Streak ( although it is hot enough) but the STREAK:

TEMPERATURES IN HOUSTON ONCE AGAIN REACHED 100 DEGREES TODAY...
THAT`S 32 OUT OF THE LAST 33 DAYS NOW. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMEST
NAM 2M GUIDANCE SINCE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE.
READINGS WILL STILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 MANY INLAND AREAS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ADDING TO THE TALLIES. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIEST
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD AFFECT THEM
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO 13-16C BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S (POSSIBLY 30S). MIN TEMPS SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE
60S NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S...YES 50S...POSSIBLE IN SOME RURAL INLAND
AREAS.

Will Fall be here? God, who knows. WORST. SUMMER. EVER.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=110429&start=680

[biggerbyte]

When one is desperate, one tends to believe anything. I could kick myself for falling into the typical model trap with the belief that a BIG change was coming. It looked real because I wanted it too, without even examining the big picture. To the newbies who believed it as well, we are all equally devastated by the turn of events with Lee.

Let us hope the cool front is an actual reality. I'm too tired to even care. So, now we move on to the next event as we begin September. We will get cooler weather, of course. We can place the words wetter and when in the next sentence.

BB

[tireman4]

It is called the Learned Helplessness Syndrome. It is like when something is kicking you over and over and you just do not care anymore. Be strong BB. You are tough. We can outlast Mother Nature...ummm I think. I hate Summer. Sigh.

[Ptarmigan]

More mosquitoes testing positive for West Nile
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... le-8340404

Droughts are making West Nile Virus a bigger problem. More reason we need rain. Most people don't get West Nile, but for the ones who do, they have serious health problems.


What are the Effects of Drought?
http://environment.about.com/od/environ ... ffects.htm

Droughts should not be dismissed as annoying and boring. They are serious. They contribute to famine, thirst, disease, wildfires, migration, and even war.

[unome]

"Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."

happy to report we got rain in Cypress this evening...

[srainhoutx]

Oh my. I see 50's for morning lows ahead early/mid next week. Sweeeeet...

[Ptarmigan]

Oh my. I see 50's for morning lows ahead early/mid next week. Sweeeeet...

I am going to need a sweater soon. 50's is the new 30's.

[Ptarmigan]

Forget Irene: The Drought in Texas Is the Catastrophe That Could Really Hurt
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... -2,00.html

The drought could have a nasty impact on the economy with our wallets.

[Andrew]

GFS paints a pretty depressing picture for the next 192h ( This can change though *Keep your fingers crossed that it will* )

[redneckweather]

Fingers are crossed but in reality (the world I live in) we are screwed for at least the next 3 weeks as far as rainfall is concerned.

[biggerbyte]

We should take those graphics for what they are. Though they raise the caution flag, we should not stick a fork in it. Remember the forecast before Lee formed when we had nothing more than a pool of moisture down in the Caribbean? Remember the "big change" that was coming to our area. We went from having the pot of gold, to having nothing. Every bit of it was model forecasting. So who is to say that nothing can't turn into something this far out? It is, afterall, long range, just as it was with Lee.

History, of course, suggest same old, same old. But I, for one, am sick of model watching.

[tireman4]

Wow. I do not think I have ever heard the meteorologists at the HGX NWS so dejected.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ABOUT
SEVEN DAYS FROM NOW. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND A FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER BELOW). POSSIBLY OUR ONLY
HOPE FOR RAIN MIGHT END UP BEING IF SOMETHING TROPICAL DEVELOPS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH SOME LUCK WE MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SOME MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
WHAT THE MODEL RUNS DO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH OUR MOISTURE
LEVELS IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. WILL NOT GET OUR HOPES UP
AT ALL AFTER EXPERIENCING WHAT TROPICAL STORM LEE DID TO US!

MAYBE BY LOOKING AT HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA NEEDS TO NOT BE ONE OF
THE TOP 10 DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD WILL GET RAIN IT TO RAIN HERE AGAIN.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ANYONE HAVE ANY OTHER IDEAS? 42
&&

FOR RAINFALL...
CLL HAS 10.92 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1917 WITH 16.66 INCHES.
IAH HAS 11.00 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1917 WITH 17.66 INCHES.
HOU HAS 11.33 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1988 WITH 26.65 INCHES.
GLS HAS 10.58 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1948 WITH 21.40 INCHES

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[ticka1]

I am reading that the high pressure is back over us and will cause our temps to heat up by next week!

What happened to the "pattern change" and the high pressure moving west or away from us? Guess it didn't happen longterm?

[Ptarmigan]

We need to kill off the Cockroach Dome that is making us dry.

[redneckweather]

La Nina surfaces ahead of schedule.


Dagger, meet Heart.