Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[tireman4]

OMG, the NAM? Are you serious Ed? LOL...no no I am joking. Back OT. I am thinking Friday is when we really start to see whatever it is or shall be, come into play.

[unome]

Wed-Sat weather briefings from HGX:

video - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing audio - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

[sambucol]

When will this be named an invest?

[srainhoutx]

When will this be named an invest?

My hunch is sometime tomorrow. We will see. There is a lot of uncertainties regard multiple vorts, where a low may form and where it would move. I suspect the NHC would like to see multiple model runs before jumping the gun in an all important Gulf storm and the potential impacts from an offshore and inland perspective. There is no clear consensus just yet and the prudent thing to do is waiting, IMO.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite so far (NAM, GFS Canadian):

NAM=development S of Lake Charles moving W to WSW
GFS=development S of the general area of New Orleans moving little
Canadian=development S of Lake Charles/Beaumont moving W to WSW along the TX Coast
Forecast=?

We'll see what the Ukmet and Euro spin out a bit later...

[djmike]

Are they starting to see a more eastern trend towards FL? Is TX losing this battle? If it continues trending east, TX will get NOTHING!

[srainhoutx]

No one is in the clear at this time.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Rip76]

Watching the weather channel in the office [NAM] I know, it's the Weather Channel [/Voice], but is the death ridge still holding firm right now?

thanks.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Ukmet...development near SW Louisiana heading W...

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro...development beginning near SW Louisiana as well...hour 48...

[Rip76]

Alicia

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 31 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z AUGUST TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 02/1800Z.

[Rip76]

ok, just so we're not searching everywhere for the information....

Can someone post all the models, and where they are currently pointing towards?

ex. Euro = TX

etc, etc...


thanks in advance.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro hour 72 suggests a W to WSW motion along or just offshore of the Upper TX Coast...

[rnmm]

And we have 93L folks!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108311813
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011083118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011083118, , BEST, 0, 240N, 860W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0,

[djmike]

Im so confused...someone else (on another forum) said the euro formed it south of Lake Charles, But then went east towards FL... Now on here, I see it forms near Lake Charles, but it drifts W/SW down the coast... Can someone please explain? Thanks

[srainhoutx]

Hour 120 of the Euro suggests a very slow moving cyclone near SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast. Movement was SW between hour 72 and 96, with a subtle shift NE by hour 120 for what it's worth...

[Andrew]

Im so confused...someone else (on another forum) said the euro formed it south of Lake Charles, But then went east towards FL... Now on here, I see it forms near Lake Charles, but it drifts W/SW down the coast... Can someone please explain? Thanks

At one point in the run the storm did move NE but the ridge started building back in and sent it more west and southwest. I just got home but I am going to look at the other models and surface data

[Andrew]

Euro bottoms out :