Post TS Franklin: N Atlantic Threat

[srainhoutx]

May be Franklin already...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

We are at our sixth storm and no hurricane yet. 2002 did not see its first hurricane until September with Gustav. 2002 was an El Nino season. 2007 did not see its first hurricane until mid August with Dean and 2007 turned out to be bad. The lull in hurricanes this season actually concerns me. I have a feeling this season could go into hurricane overdrive.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or KHOU. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

We may see Franklin...

THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...NO
THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 60.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.