SAL should keep 92L in check during its trip across the Atlantic. The more favorable area for development would tend to be just E of the Caribbean Islands. As far as track goes, my hunch is the ridge will remain in control meaning a NE MX/S TX potential or an Emily type track. Time will tell. I'd watch the TW that will exit behind any future Franklin very closely as well. That feature may well be the one that could get a lot of attention as the days go on...
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I wouldn't put much stock on those tracks as they all depend on 92L developing in the near term, which isn't going to happen. It won't recurve if it isn't a storm.
The story of a single, easily-tracked pouch is gone!
ECMWF: P14L is stationary just off the coast of Africa as another weak wave approaches from the east. P14L and the other wave/pouch (I have never tracked this eastern wave/pouch) merge during Day 2. Then this merged pouch, which I continue to call P14L, initially moves northwestward, but then it moves southwestward and dissipates after 96 hours. Meanwhile, two other pouches are depicted later in the forecast period. (1) An area of elevated and OW values to the southeast of P14L, and (2) A small 700-hPa pouch moves from the subtropics toward the southwest ahead of/west of P14L. This pouch develops and then moves westward toward the Caribbean. (I have always thought that 2010's Matthew had similar origins, so this potential pouch needs monitoring.)
GFS: Similar to ECMWF, except that after the merger, P14L moves northwestward into the subtropical ridge and dissipates. GFS also depicts the eventual tropical pouch to the southeast as well as the subtropical pouch that moves into the Caribbean.
UKMET: Similar to GFS, with an early merger, motion into and dissipation in the subtropical ridge, and even the development of another 700-hPa subtropical development to the west.
NOGAPS: Outlier!! Like other models, NOGAPS hints at an early merger, although the presence of the other wave/pouch is not so obvious in the fields. However, NOGAPS does not move P14L northwestward, but rather, moves westward, but with a somewhat erratic track. Other pouches are eventually depicted, so P14L in NOGAPS appears to be just one pouch in a zonal string of ITCZ vortices.
While the 12Z does suggest a disturbance developing out of the ITCZ, it is not clear if that is the 'remains' of P14L. Still something to watch as the week goes by. Oh, and the GFS lost the Gulf disturbance as well...
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I noticed that 92L is no longer a graphic on the NHC website, and I know it was never mentioned in the TWO, does this mean they are no longer watching this storm?
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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