Remnants of Emily in Central Subtropical Atlantic

[Andrew]

And now the Canadian: WOW!

[leahpeah]

Double WOW!!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

12Z tracks have shifted further W (as expected with a weaker disturbance) to very near/over Florida.

[rnmm]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[djmike]

http://www.accuweather.com

Concern for the U.S.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the system does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean,"...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -antil.asp

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[redneckweather]

This thing has got to be close to being upgraded! Looking good IMO.

[srainhoutx]

Lot of W wind via RECON just E of Dominica. Should see an upgrade before too long from the NHC...we will see...

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
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invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren
FSTDA
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201108012219
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[texoz]

you can change the name of this thread. we have Emily.

[srainhoutx]

you can change the name of this thread. we have Emily.

When the 1st Advisory is issued...

[desiredwxgd]

Nice blow up of convection. Emily by night....??????

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Andrew]

That is a good first advisory by NHC and seems like it Florida is under the gun. It will be interesting to see what the models show with the new data ingested tonight for the 00z. I leave for Florida Saturday and I might be intercepting this thing.

[srainhoutx]

00Z track...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES BY TUESDAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WAS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY...AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[srainhoutx]

RECON data suggests the LLC is beginning slow down. The deep convective feature, while displaced to the E, appears to be lining up with the surface circulation that has been fighting some low level shear. It will be interesting to see if Emily can become a bit better vertically stacked and begin a strengthening process. Time will tell...

[Kludge]

Well, I'm personally hoping for little or no intensification for the next few days, so she won't be pulled poleward any time soon. Notice that this morning's BAMS shallow (weak storm) model takes it to the Yucatan channel, and gives us the only hope for some rain. Maybe some of the shear and dry air she will be encountering over the coming hours will keep her weak and on a westward path.