EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: 3 of our members are planning to intercept any future Don. HurricaneJosh, Scott747 and Met Tech. Josh and Cory have been worrking to fine tune some wind sampling equipment in San Antonio this week. We wish them a safe and successful intercept.

[Ptarmigan]

Just an FYI: 3 of our members are planning to intercept any future Don. HurricaneJosh, Scott747 and Met Tech. Josh and Cory have been worrking to fine tune some wind sampling equipment in San Antonio this week. We wish them a safe and successful intercept.

Be interesting to see the outcome.

[rnmm]

Just an FYI: 3 of our members are planning to intercept any future Don. HurricaneJosh, Scott747 and Met Tech. Josh and Cory have been worrking to fine tune some wind sampling equipment in San Antonio this week. We wish them a safe and successful intercept.

Good Luck guys!! Stay safe!!

This is a great opportunity to say THANK YOU to everyone for all you do!!!

[weatherrabbit]

press. down to 1000.9 mb...saw on s2k...on second pass...sorry if already posted

[djmike]

What can we expect here in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area if it comes ashore around Matagorda as a Cat.1? Also, is it still possible for a more northrley turn?

[srainhoutx]

It appears we will have TS Don with the 1st Advisory...

Code: Select all

BEST TRACK: AL04, 221N 868W, 35kts, 1004mb, TS FOUR

[singlemom]

In terms of 18Z models, I'm assuming that it's "flip flop model" time, since the models seem to be pointed toward the Mexico border again?

[srainhoutx]

Votex message sent:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 20:01:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°08'N 86°49'W (22.1333N 86.8167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 68 miles (110 km) to the N (1°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 34kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 313m (1,027ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 348m (1,142ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:49:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[srainhoutx]

In terms of 18Z models, I'm assuming that it's "flip flop model" time, since the models seem to be pointed toward the Mexico border again?

I'd be careful re: track models at this point. The spread seems to be in 2 camps. One for the Middle TX Coast and the other further S near Brownsville. New data from the Hurricane Hunters and additional high altitude NOAA aircraft will begin to be injested into guidance tonight and tomorrow.

[txsnowmaker]

FYI from Frank Billingsley at Ch. 2:

"We could see it arrive on the Texas coast Friday morning. The models continue to pull this system in our general direction, which are centered right around Corpus Christi into Houston. With a storm 500 miles out, predictions of a landfall can be off by 200 miles. The rain potential is 6 inches wherever it hits..."

http://www.click2houston.com/weather/28 ... etail.html

[djjordan]

No Watches issued with this advisory package but we do have TS Don

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
WTNT34 KNHC 272053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. 
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2053.shtml

We got Tropical Storm Don.

[vci_guy2003]

That cone is perfect for a gradual northern jog of the models now til Friday

[ticka1]

we aren't in the cone...our friends to the south are...near freeport/bay city and that area

will it shift? depends on THE DON.

NHC thinks it will go south so they aren't banking on the heat ridge moving that far east to get TS DON close to us for landfall - will it change - oh I'm sure it will....

[sleetstorm]

That tropical storm is starting to have good cirrus cloud outflow on its west side on the visible satellite picture in motion.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jasons2k]

A professional met who goes by 'Cheeznado' on another forum went Bret-99 territory, strong TS or minimal hurricane, and I'd tend, in my unofficial and amateur way, think that is probably the smart money.

Actually, almost every pro-met on that site is consitently calling for this to be steered by the deeper easterly flow into the Lower (not mid-upper) TX coast, south of CRP.

[jasons2k]

That cone is perfect for a gradual northern jog of the models now til Friday

Normally I would agree, but I'm starting to be convinced this will not be one of those cases where the track shifts right.

[Snowman]

we will just have to see how much that high weakens. usually the track shifts right but it may not in this case.
I will just go with whatever wxman thinks

[vci_guy2003]

DARN. oh well.. maybe next time lol