July: Week of 25th - Don Near S TX/ Hot & Dry

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

TXZ164-179-152200-
POLK-TRINITY-
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APPLE SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...APPLE SPRINGS.

[Ptarmigan]

Storms died as they moved into Harris County. Better luck next time, maybe tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Tug of war of dry and wet air.

[svrwx0503]

Seems like a major "bust" based on projections as recently as a few hours ago. Can this be attributed to (1) the same sounding issues that caused similar busts in winter weather forecasts for our area last year; (2) interactions with the parched ground in the region; or (3) some other reason or combination of factors?

Today's lack of rain across southern sections of the region can be attributed to two main factors that were rather noticeable as early as this morning after taking a look at a visible satellite loop. The first factor was all of the high cloudiness associated with the early morning convection which formed across southwest LA. This really limited heating over southern areas. The second factor was that there was some slightly drier air around 850mb that was located over the central and southern zones this morning but has now moistened up a bit this evening. It was interesting to note that when looking at the RUC2 mesoanalysis across the region, all of the shower and thunderstorm activity today was developing in an area characterized by 850mb dew points at or above 14-15C... unfortunately across the central and southern zones, we still had 850 dew points in the 12-13C range. This evening it looks as if 850mb dew points have come up across the metro area and we should be in for much better coverage tomorrow if we can get some good daytime heating in here during the morning hours.

I guess a sounding would have shown the slightly drier air in the low levels; however we would have likely seen much better coverage even today had it not been for the significant cirrus shield which moved in during the mid-morning hours. What was supprising to me was that even with all of the clouds around, IAH still managed to reach a high today of 96!

[biggerbyte]

I think it is more of a dry air issue than anything. Official forecasts were certainly a bust. As an example, just one unnamed stationed called for heavy rains for all, staying mostly south of Conroe. What we really got was mostly scattered showers, with the bulk being north. This sort of thing happens all of the time now. All I can attribute it to is too much reliance on models to build their forecast. It gets ridiculous during hurricane season.

[C2G]

Maybe today will make up for yesterdays shortcomings? Radar certainly looks encouraging. We shall see what we see, I guess.

[wxman57]

The big area of showers/storms is starting out just on the east side of Houston today vs. Beaumont yesterday. I think it will be moving into the city this afternoon. Also, it's over land today vs. water yesterday, another good sign.

[srainhoutx]

I think Ed had a few too many of those Red Bull's himself this morning. What ever happened to drinking coffee? Anyway, it sure looks a lot more hopeful today than yesterday as moisture has increased across the area and a nice disturbance rotating beneath the Ridge will pass over the area today. Fingers crossed!

[jasons2k]

I hope so but it looks like the southern half of the blob is fizzling again....

[C2G]

We're getting a nice light to moderate soaking rain down here. Time for bed, perfect sleeping weather.

[sleetstorm]

Hi everyone, I am vacationing in Stillwater, Oklahoma with my mother and youngest sister and the very hot heat has come this way. From what I understand from what I have heard it looks as though the hot to very hot temperatures will be traveling to Iowa, which is where we will be going and vacationing next.

[svrwx0503]

The latest radar data indicates a meso-low currently moving out of Hardin and into southern Polk county associated with the light to moderate rain shield. There could be some gusty winds (20-30mph) associated with this feature before it slowly weakens. Moisture levels are up when compared to yesterday, but yet again widespread cloud cover is currently limiting heating, so it will be interesting to see how much redevelopment we can get later this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

The light rain is ending here now. Barely enough to wet the pavement

[srainhoutx]

If the models are correct, a more vigorous disturbance will move W across the Gulf near the middle of next week increasing rain chances.

[Ptarmigan]

If the models are correct, a more vigorous disturbance will move W across the Gulf near the middle of next week increasing rain chances.

Let's hope for it.

[jasons2k]

Well, this one was hyped-up to be pretty vigorous and we got squat, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

[biggerbyte]

Some folks got more than others. Most got very little, to nothing. I got sprinkles both days of what was suggested by the pros to be the mother load for at least 2/3 of the area. Call it hyped if you want. That is actually more respectful than saying no one knew less than 24 hours in advance. I go back to the whole model watching theory. Welcome to the forever changing conditions in weather. Best you can do is mention the possibilities. The slightest changes in conditions for our area can mean drastic realtime changes in the forecast. This "event" was yet another example.

[wxman57]

It rained for a good 5 hours at my house in southwest Houston (Westbury). In that 5 hours, I recorded a grand total of just over a trace, maybe 0.01". Wasn't enough to keep the ground wet most of the time.

[srainhoutx]

A bit better chance of rain today and tomorrow although scattered for the SE TX area. Hopefully everyone will see at least some rainfall. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

Whoopee! A very heavy thundershower in NW Harris County at this time.

[jasons2k]

The radar had looked very promising for me earlier this morning, with a nice storm headed right for me. It sorta split around me and reformed a new cell just to my south. I was running an errand down at 1960 & I-45 and the new cell rained pretty good down there. When I got home, I had a whole .06" in the rain gauge.

This pattern is so irritating. It seems when we have enough moisture in place, it wants to rain so bad we get morning showers which prevents any good storms in the afternoon. And it seems on the days when we do get enough sun and heat, something else (such as lack of moisture) spoils the afternoon fun. Why does it have to be one extreme or the other? Why can't we get just a good solid day of some sun and then an afternoon dumping? This is Houston - it can't be THAT hard - geez....grrrrr....

Edit: Another shower passed by. Up to an incredible .08" now. Break out the sandbags