July: Week of 25th - Don Near S TX/ Hot & Dry

[C2G]

Any chance the activity now in Louisiana could hold together and make it to the Houston area?

[C2G]

Actually having a nice shower with a clap of thunder thrown in. Been raining since at least 2PM.

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to keep an eye to our N and E as an approaching disturbance/outflow boundary heads W into the late afternoon/evening.

[jasons2k]

I got back from Florida and had 1.97" in the rain gauge - not bad

[Kludge]

I got back from Florida and had 1.97" in the rain gauge - not bad

You're not fooling anyone. You took that rain guage with you. Didn't you? D i d n ' t Y o u...??! Busted.

Maybe you brought some back with you for this weekend, though. If so, thanks.

[C2G]

Two showers in one day, NO WAY!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Maybe Kludge, redneckweather and Jansons are getting some rain. It looks like my yard will miss out tonight. Gang I'll be taking some much needed time off next week. As Ed has alluded to, I'll be attending the 1st American Weather Conference in Baltimore next week. NHC Director Bill Read along with Paul Kocin of HPC and TWC fame will be speaking among others. I'll post some pics on my return.

[wxman57]

Looks like a good chance of rain for us tomorrow. I can see the pattern slowly changing. Ridge is retreating northward as the Euro predicted in the seasonal forecast. Maybe August won't be so dry.

[redneckweather]

Looks like a good chance of rain for us tomorrow. I can see the pattern slowly changing. Ridge is retreating northward as the Euro predicted in the seasonal forecast. Maybe August won't be so dry.

For the love of God I hope your right. Srain, we have had enough to wet the pavement which brings out a strong smell of dirt! Right now it is lightly sprinkling but that about it. So close but so far. lol

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Area looks to get a good shot at widespread rainfall today and again on Saturday.

Heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Upper level ridge of high pressure which has parked over TX for the last several months has moved far enough northwest to allow a deep tropical easterly flow to develop on its underside over the region. This flow is brining a very moist air mass with PWS of at least 2.1 inches into the region along with small disturbances moving westward under the ridge. One such disturbance is currently off the coast of LA this morning and moving westward and will be the player for this afternoon. Widespread mid and high level clouds blanket the area this morning and this clearly shows the deep layer moisture is in place. This cloud cover will also help to inhibit heating some resulting in a later start of thunderstorms this afternoon. As the northern Gulf disturbance moves overhead, combined with surface heating, and remaining surface boundaries from yesterday expect thunderstorms to develop. Entire area looks like it will see some action this afternoon with storms going well into the evening moving SW across the region. Will not rule out a few pulse severe events as seen yesterday over Montgomery and Liberty counties with wind damage as the center cores of storms load with heavy rain and that comes crashing to the surface resulting in strong winds.

Will go with at least 50% coverage this afternoon although I do believe the coverage may even be higher. Very moist and saturated air column and high PWS air mass supports heavy rainfall today of 1-2 inches under the rainfall cores in about 30 minutes.

Saturday will feature a very similar setup however models are pinging away at a near inland coastal boundary…possibly an old outflow boundary from storms this afternoon south of I-10 that they fire off Saturday afternoon. Storm motions look slower and this raises the threat for excessive rainfall given PWS remaining in the 2.1-2.3 inch range. Could see rainfall rates approach 3-4 inches per hour under the stronger cells on Saturday and given the slower storm motion this may result in rapid urban flash flooding of low lying areas and roadways. Overall extremely dry ground should help mitigate a larger flood threat.

Air mass really never dries out and upper ridge reaming to our north into the middle of next week which gives us a 30-40% rain chance each afternoon. Rainfall today and Saturday may actually help out the drought situation as it will be more widespread, with scattered daily summer type stuff going into next week.

[srainhoutx]

The sun is starting to peek through the clouds now. Perhaps some daytime heating will add to storm chances later in the day. That is an interesting disturbance riding W along the SW LA Gulf Coast this morning...

[redneckweather]

That is an interesting disturbance riding the coast right now. Hmmmmmmm

Anyhow, looking forward to a good stormy afternoon hopefully. Fingers crossed! I leave for Gulf Shores bright and early so it looks like I'm going to miss out seeing it rain at my house over the weekend! Oh well....I will be sitting on the sugary white beaches in my lounge chair babysitting my surf rod for a few days. Can't wait!

[jasons2k]

I just had a light sprinkle here last night. Very optimistic for some rain later today though. The movement of the LA convection is to the SW, but you can see new development developing on the NW flank advancing westward.

[sau27]

What are the chances the ridge stays away the rest of the summer? I saw Wxman mentioned a pattern shift, but it almost seems too good to be true for that to happen. Also if there truly in a pattern shift with the ridge moving away from here or at least keeping an easterly flow I'd think that would potentially have some implications on any tropical systems that made it into the gulf.

[srainhoutx]

What are the chances the ridge stays away the rest of the summer? I saw Wxman mentioned a pattern shift, but it almost seems too good to be true for that to happen. Also if there truly in a pattern shift with the ridge moving away from here or at least keeping an easterly flow I'd think that would potentially have some implications on any tropical systems that made it into the gulf.

If the Euro Seasonal forecast is correct, that pattern does appear to be changing to less of an Upper Ridge control for us. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

That disturbance/vort appears to be heading a bit more W than SW right along I-10. Fingers crossed!

[wxman57]

Storms died as they moved into Harris County. Better luck next time, maybe tomorrow.

[txsnowmaker]

Storms died as they moved into Harris County. Better luck next time, maybe tomorrow.

Seems like a major "bust" based on projections as recently as a few hours ago. Can this be attributed to (1) the same sounding issues that caused similar busts in winter weather forecasts for our area last year; (2) interactions with the parched ground in the region; or (3) some other reason or combination of factors?

[jasons2k]

I don't get it. It's like the whole southern half of the system, basically from Conroe south, just fizzled into sprinkles. We had plenty of insolation today. What gives?

[srainhoutx]

It appears that pw's were slightly less than LCH and that likely was the main issue. We'll see if better/higher moisture is around tomorrow providing for a bit more widespread rain chances. That old saying about forecasting rain during a drought holds true today.