2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

Still watching the tropical wave near 55W. The operational models have backed off developing this wave, but conditions (lower shear) should improve in the Western Caribbean mid/late next week. Something to keep an eye on as we head into the long 4th of July Holiday weekend...

[djmike]

Still watching the tropical wave near 55W. The operational models have backed off developing this wave, but conditions (lower shear) should improve in the Western Caribbean mid/late next week. Something to keep an eye on as we head into the long 4th of July Holiday weekend...

Hey! Thanks Srain! "Some" hope atleast!

[srainhoutx]

Another thing that is working in favor of any development is a Kelvin wave and a stout MJO pulse near the 10th...

[sleetstorm]

Hey, guys-- what's up? Haven't posted here in a while-- just thought I'd say hey.

Interesting that the season has started off with a W-Gulf threat.

Could that be a precursor for this year's hurricane season, HurricaneJosh?

[srainhoutx]

The GFS, Canadian and Euro all suggest a vigorous wave nearing the NW Caribbean early next week.

[srainhoutx]

The wave that was mentioned earlier has increased in convection over night and a TUTT to the NW is creating a highly sheared Central Caribbean. We'll see what happens as shear looks to relax in the Western Caribbean in a few days...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...HAITI...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggest the SW Caribbean will be the area to watch re: any development in the coming week.

[biggerbyte]

Interesting to note the similarities to last season. Let's hope that Mexico does not end up being the "bulls eye" for everything. Texas needs a big break right now with some tropical rains. Would be a shame to spend all of hurricane season high and dry.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to note the similarities to last season. Let's hope that Mexico does not end up being the "bulls eye" for everything. Texas needs a big break right now with some tropical rains. Would be a shame to spend all of hurricane season high and dry.

2010 started with Alex, which formed in the same area as Arlene. Deja vu? We need some tropical rains. We need to get rid of that Cockroach Ridge that blocks rain from us.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Update:

IN REGARDS TO TROPICAL WEATHER...ENOUGH 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WERE SPLAYED OUT ALONG AN ELONGATED AXIS ACROSS/AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND TO DEPICT A RETROGRADING INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Roth made some changes in the morning HPC Update regarding the inverted trough that brought some attention for those in the Eastern Gulf. Increased moisture surge is indicated for the Western Gulf later this coming week and the Canadian spins up a TS headed toward SW LA/SE TX by the end of the week. That solution is not likely.

HPC Morning Update:

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING...WHICH
REINTRODUCED THE RETROGRADING TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC AND
NHC THE PAST COUPLE DAYS DURING THE DAILY 17Z CALL. THIS MODEL
CHOICE LED TO SOME SLOWING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIMING SINCE AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS NOT USED.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and Euro ensembles are hinting the Western Caribbean will be the area to watch in the longer range regarding any future Bret. The TW near 35W would likely be the culprit, fwiw...

[sleetstorm]

Did Texas have a Hurricane Bret back in the summer of 1998?

[tireman4]

Yep...actually 1999

Hurricane Bret was the first of five Category 4 hurricanes that developed during the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical cyclone since Hurricane Jerry in 1989 to make landfall in Texas at hurricane intensity. Forming from a tropical wave on August 18, Bret slowly organized within weak steering currents in the Bay of Campeche. By August 20, the storm began to track northward and underwent rapid intensification on August 21. After this period of strengthening, Bret attained its peak intensity with winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 944 mbar (hPa; 27.88 inHg)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bret_(1999)

[Ptarmigan]

Yep...actually 1999

Hurricane Bret was the first of five Category 4 hurricanes that developed during the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical cyclone since Hurricane Jerry in 1989 to make landfall in Texas at hurricane intensity. Forming from a tropical wave on August 18, Bret slowly organized within weak steering currents in the Bay of Campeche. By August 20, the storm began to track northward and underwent rapid intensification on August 21. After this period of strengthening, Bret attained its peak intensity with winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 944 mbar (hPa; 27.88 inHg)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bret_(1999)

1999 had 12 names storms, but 5 major hurricanes. It comes to show it is not just the quantity that makes a season active. 1999 started in June than went quiet until late August with Bret. 1999 was a bad season like 1998. 1998 and 1999 were La Nina seasons.

[ticka1]

Hurricane season will get active in mid August when the kids go back to school and life gets back to a routine.....its always slow in June and July. Enjoy the time of peace and calm.

[sambucol]

Hurricane season will get active in mid August when the kids go back to school and life gets back to a routine.....its always slow in June and July. Enjoy the time of peace and calm.

I agree!

[srainhoutx]

Law of averages not on my side, but I want wave exiting Africa in 5 or 6 days to hit the Mid Atlantic around July 22.

They've been without for so long. Right up the left side of Chesapeake Bay would be cool.

Probably as likely as the 240 hour Canadian...

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane season will get active in mid August when the kids go back to school and life gets back to a routine.....its always slow in June and July. Enjoy the time of peace and calm.

June and July is quiet normally. An active June and July would be unusual. Anyways, we still need rain and plenty of it.

[wxman57]

Keep your eyes on the area off the East U.S. Coast over the coming week. That will be the place to watch for potential development. Any system developing there would likely track to the northeast and out to sea.