June Ends - Hottest on Record

[wxmx]

Thanks Steve. I really hope my "experience in long range forecasts" gets stomped over... we really need the rains.

Man, they'll let anyone post here

Hopefully, the models are right in getting more moisture in the W Gulf. The large scale pattern should be in your favor.

At least there's a lot more moisture... but about rain... I think it will be a bit of a let down for most. The ridge will probably rebuild in the 5+ day period... hopefully not as strong as the 0z Euro wants to build it.

[rnmm]

I am patiently waiting on the rain, I did tell a few youngin's around here, that perhaps when it started we would go outside and oh I don't know.........RUN THROUGH IT!!

[jasons2k]

I looked outside and it looks like you can almost see the cap. All the streamer showers have a flat top on them. Hopefully with a little more heating and a bit more cooling of the cap we can bust through and get some deep convection. I'm also watching the outflow up north. I'm pretty optimistic for our chances this afternoon. Please, please

[ticka1]

I looked outside and it looks like you can almost see the cap. All the streamer showers have a flat top on them. Hopefully with a little more heating and a bit more cooling of the cap we can bust through and get some deep convection. I'm also watching the outflow up north. I'm pretty optimistic for our chances this afternoon. Please, please

I'm with you Jasons...PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE...cap break!!!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is painting a bit lesser amounts of rainfall today. Thru hour 90, totals are not all that impressive, but any rainfall would be very welcomed...

[jasons2k]

It's 94F here now and the sun isn't even vertical yet.

[jasons2k]

I'm looking at the visible satellite loop and I see a few things. First, coming in from the north is some sort of boundary that looks like a gravity wave. Second, the persistent convection in Far East Texas is sending out an outflow boundary and should see more development on its southwest flank. Third, the images show TCU developing in the Houston metro area now. I think all three of these factors will combine to give the area some rain, especially along the US 90 and US 59 corridors from downtown Houston to the northeast in the near term. Later on, areas along and east of I-45 should see more activity.

Edit: I sure wish the winds would calm down some too. It's not helping matters and the streamer showers are moving so fast, they're not able to give us much rain. So far, I am still dry here.

[srainhoutx]

Some of the meso models are sniffing a MCS dropping S overnight into the region. The stage may well be set for a bit more wide spread rain threat tomorrow with any boundaries across the area. Fingers crossed!

[unome]

we had a little overnight, maybe between 3 & 5 am, a few drops since, not measurable - looks like the happy little moisture is passing us by once again http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[wxman57]

It's not looking like we will see more than a few sprinkles across Houston today. Let's hope for more tomorrow when the better dynamics are in place.

[srainhoutx]

If the Euro is correct, a mighty big Upper Ridge will build further to our N in the longer range. Perhaps that old saying, 'Ring of Fire' is fitting and could be a bit more conducive for disturbances riding underneath that Ridge for the area.

HPC:

A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD LEAD TO A
RECURRENCE OF HIGHS NEAR AND ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE TEXAS
BIG COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS REGIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME REDUCTION IN HEAT ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL THAT WAY AS HEAT INDICES ARE
UNLIKELY TO CHANGE.

[jasons2k]

The radar so far is pretty depressing. Too windy for a sea breeze - it's just blah!

[rnmm]

We only got showers earlier this morning lasted about 10 minutes if that, we are still optimistic though!!

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update...may need to keep an eye to our N later this evening...

...NRN/WRN AR INTO TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
PRIOR CONVECTION IN AR/LA HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE TX
INTO WRN/NRN AR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY NE TX WHERE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT. FARTHER W...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE
NEAR 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE IA/MN CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A
CLUSTER OR TWO AND MOVE SEWD.

[jasons2k]

NWS lowered my rain chances for tomorrow from 60% down to 40%

[wxman666]

NWS lowered my rain chances for tomorrow from 60% down to 40%

I noticed that too. It's down to 40% areawide now. It will be interesting to see the afternoon AFD.

[srainhoutx]

A very large Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued to our N and W...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...WW 533...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH OVER CNTRL AND SW TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE AS
HEATING FURTHER ERODES CINH ON NRN FRINGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS
LEFT UN-OVERTURNED BY LAST NIGHTS MCS. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE GENERALLY SW FROM EXISTING STORM CLUSTER SW OF SHV.
DEGREE AND DISTRIBUTION OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR WITH SIZABLE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE CNTRL AND W
TX STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COUPLE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT
PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR THREAT.

[svrwx0503]

21z sounding from College Station this afternoon confirms previous thinking and confirms the ACARS soundings with a distinct warm layer just above 700mb remaining over the region, especially west of I-45. Even though moisture levels across the southern sections are higher then what is seen up at CLL, that persistent cap has held strong. Models continue to indicate some better dynamics and cooling mid-level temps later tonight and tomorrow with better chances of rain. Looks like we are just in a wait and see mode. It is interesting to see those storms near Nacogdoches back building to the southwest, hopefully they will bring some rain into Trinity county to help the fire conditions up there.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like Trinity County is getting some storms now. Let's hope that Grimes County can get in on some action later tonight to aide in fire fighting efforts.

[Kludge]

It looks like Trinity County is getting some storms now. Let's hope that Grimes County can get in on some action later tonight to aide in fire fighting efforts.

Amen to that, Steve.
It would probably take 3"+ before we see our first puddle...