TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

[tireman4]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011



THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING ITS
AXIS SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND SW ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF
SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM
30N53W TO 26N56W...THE SECOND ONE FROM 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W...AND A THIRD ONE EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING ALONG 32N48W 25N55W 21N66W
21N73W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION COVERS
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ANTHE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA
...EASTERN CUBA...AND PUERTO RICO S OF 23N E OF 57W. ACCORDING
TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. TO THE WEST OF THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 45W.

Is it too early for events in this part of the globe? I thought this was an August/September feature.

[srainhoutx]

Andrea 2007 was a STS that formed in May. My hunch is the deep trough off the Western Atlantic would be the influence if anything develops and it would be very sheared.