94L - in Caribbean

[srainhoutx]

As expected, RECON for today has been cancelled. Schedule for toworrow/'Monday have been tasked.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

[srainhoutx]

As expected, RECON for today has been cancelled. Schedule for toworrow/'Monday have been tasked.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

18Z track are clearly in two camps...

[Rip76]

If this doesn't form, any chance of it moving this way as a wave?

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

The GDFL run raises an eyebrow. On the other hand, the HWRF suggests a much quicker consolidation. I tend to believe the slower of the two make more sense with a monsoonal trough/gyre, IMO.

[wxman57]

Development still appears unlikely. Most models are in good agreement on a NNE track if it should develop. Even if it doesn't develop, there is nothing to indicate any of the moisture is heading this way. Surface obs and low-level cloud movement indicate that any LLC is well west of the convection, not far from 16N/80W. Lowest pressure is just west of that point. Pressures are a few millibars higher near the convection. Note the low-level clouds are moving from SW to NE just south of 15N/80W, indicating the low center is north of there.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Once again, RECON mission for today cancelled:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1430Z
D. 17.0N 79.5W
E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/0215Z
D. 17.5N 80.0W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

12Z early tracks...

[srainhoutx]

Virtually all the globals suggest a track close to Western Cuba and into the Gulf. The HWRF is alone sending 94L NE. The GFDL develops a Tropical Storm in the Gulf and turns it W/WNW...

[wxman57]

The trouble we're seeing in the models is that each model develops the system at a different rate. Those that develop it quickly take it one way (NNE-NE). Those that develop it a little more slowly take it another direction (NW). And those that dissipate it after a few days take it another direction (toward FL). Question is, will it develop at all? How quickly/slowly? That will determine where it eventually tracks.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't care if 94L develops or not. We could use rain from it.

[srainhoutx]

Nice microwave pass catches a center S of Jamaica...

[srainhoutx]

00Z 06062011....

[srainhoutx]

Look like a good initiation for the 00Z GFS. Time for bed. Something tells me we’ll be watching 94L awhile…who knows, maybe the night crew is still around...

[texoz]

Nice blow up just south of Jamaica at 11pm. Looks like it's right over the COC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[wxman57]

Definitely looks less organized since yesterday afternoon. Winds in the region are down, and LLC is less evident. Buoy west of Jamaica has a very light SW wind. NHC put the center east of the buoy, which doesn't fit with its obs. I have it just west of the buoy (if there is one). All convection is well off to the east of any LLC, and there is no sign of an LLC reformation closer to the convection. Convection remains quite weak.

[wxman57]

Euro and GFS don't see much of a future for 94L. May enhance rain around Florida as its sheared apart. Maybe.

That's what I'm thinking, Ed. Well, maybe if we get up to 105-106 again today the cap will be broken and we'll get a few more thunderstorms. Note that temps at 9am today are 4 degrees warmer than 9am yesterday (86 today/82 yesterday)