2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[Ptarmigan]

I know in more active seasons like 2005 and 2010, there is a monsoonal trough in the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

It appears that we're observing the model overreacting in developing something down there as they do every May. Regardless, anything forming down there with the projected steering currents wouldn't likely head this way.

[srainhoutx]

Where ever it goes, the NHC is watching...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

[Ptarmigan]

Where ever it goes, the NHC is watching...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

That's from late April.

[srainhoutx]

Where ever it goes, the NHC is watching...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

That's from late April.

It's a typo. Latest from NHC...

[srainhoutx]

The morning TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGERING WITHIN 20 NM WEST AND SW OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. ON THE OTHER HAND...BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON
THE S CENTRAL BASIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON
TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 14N AND W OF
73W. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ITCZ AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A WEAK LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION.

[wxman57]

That low is a semi-permanent feature in the SW Caribbean from May through October. One key will be any large tropical waves that move in from the east over the coming weeks. By itself, the low probably won't do anything.

[srainhoutx]

La la land 12Z GFS brings a weak disturbance into the Gulf from the Western Caribbean around mid June, for what it's worth.

[sambucol]

I'm hoping things hold off. My house burned almost 4 weeks ago, and I'm hoping my house is restored before we're threatened with a storm. If we're threatened, that is.

[Andrew]

I'm hoping things hold off. My house burned almost 4 weeks ago, and I'm hoping my house is restored before we're threatened with a storm. If we're threatened, that is.

It'd be more rain than wind, if I had to guess, SSTs barely 26º now...

And in my amateur opinion, nothing is coming towards us from the Gulf for weeks...

I agree. It is going to take a little while for everything to crank up and for things to start heading our way (if they do at all).

[srainhoutx]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW IS
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...
EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING
IS NOTED IN THIS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH
IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 73W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83W NE TO 14N76W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

[srainhoutx]

And of course the 12Z Canadian blows up a storm just S of Cuba...the GFS showed nothing but a weak system meandering around the W Caribbean throughout the entire run...

[srainhoutx]

Now the Euro joins the Canadian...

[srainhoutx]

Supportive MJO pulse suggested as well during the time frame that the Euro is sniffing...

[Ptarmigan]

NOGAPS develops something off the Central American coast in 132 hours. Arlene?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[srainhoutx]

The models have backed off regarding a deeper low emanating from the SW Caribbean. The general trend is a much weaker, broad area of low pressure confined S of Cuba in the near to meduim range. There is a weak wave that is approaching from W of the Windward Islands, but the wave axis is rather weak, and lacks deep convection. My hunch is this area of disturbed weather will simmer for several days without much development and be very typical of what we see this time of year with a semi permanent low pressure area in that region. Until a stronger wave comes along, which is not currently on the horizon, this will likely be nothing more than a passing interest...

[srainhoutx]

A weak low has formed...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update:

AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE MIDWESTERN/MID SOUTH RIDGE...THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS NORTHWEST CAUSING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EARLY ON WITH A SUBSEQUENT SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED.
THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE OF FAIRLY LARGE SIZE PER THE
GUIDANCE. THE POINTS FOR THIS LOW WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT
17Z.

[srainhoutx]

TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA ALONG 13N85W 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS LARGE AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS N AND S OF THE ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE FROM E CUBA TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES
TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

SW Caribbean showing deep convection this morning. Will it maintain throughtout the day?

HPC:

ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE
RIDGE...A BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO /UNLIKE THE 06Z GFS/ WHICH SHOULD KEEP VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LOW CONSTRAINED TO THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. KEPT
CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS 17Z NHC COORDINATED POINTS SINCE THE GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SYSTEM...ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.