Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NERN TX...NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251853Z - 252100Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL TYPES OF ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 80
PERCENT.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE ROUGHLY FROM DEQ TO CRS TO DRT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/CNTRL TX...WITH INCREASING TCU NOTED NEAR CRS. BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHETHER
TSTM INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GLANCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS/WRN MO IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPING THE THERMAL/MOIST AXES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT /PER MODIFIED 18Z SHV RAOB/...SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION IS QUITE LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE W/SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/LA.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

[weatherguy425]

SPC updated to include a good cunk of southeast texas in the slight risk area. Watching CU band increase on the tail end of the front, and another CU cluster develop northeast of Austin.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SCNTRL TX
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S. VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UPWARD EVOLVING CU LINE ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THAT MAY WITH TIME
DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE
IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE PROBS FOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

[tireman4]

WFUS53 KPAH 252055
TORPAH
MOC023-223-252145-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0133.110525T2055Z-110525T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 351 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG ROTATION
NEAR GRANDIN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND
IN ELLSINORE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BRUSH ARBOR...
WILLIAMSVILLE...
PIEDMONT...
GREENVILLE...
SHOOK...
SAM A BAKER STATE PARK...
LODI...
CASCADE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A HOME OR BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9079 3718 9075 3728 9074 3728 9057
3732 9055 3731 9023 3708 9022 3685 9067
3692 9068 3693 9070 3697 9070 3700 9074
3705 9074 3706 9080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 227DEG 35KT 3691 9075

[srainhoutx]

Rough afternoon/evening in MO and AR with a big sprawling low pressure chugging E...

[tireman4]

WWUS53 KPAH 252100
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
400 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

MOC035-252115-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0132.000000T0000Z-110525T2115Z/
CARTER MO-
400 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 355 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLSINORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TREES
WERE REPORTEDLY BEING TORN OUT OF THE GROUND.


LAT...LON 3706 9080 3705 9075 3702 9074 3700 9074
3699 9072 3690 9068 3682 9071 3682 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 218DEG 36KT 3698 9071

$$

[tireman4]

727
WFUS54 KMEG 252122
TORMEG
ARC031-055-075-252200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0151.110525T2122Z-110525T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALICIA...OR NEAR DIAZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BONO...
JONESBORO AND LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[unome]

I know it's past the date listed in the thread title, but it looks like 2 major metro areas - Chicago & Detroit - may be in for some nasty stuff today - possibly worth watching

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_pro ... le=afdblog

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0395.html