May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

[unome]

.01" http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KTXDRYCR1

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fk=0&ski=0

[sleetstorm]

Are we done paying for dry air that this past winter's cold fronts ushered in? When was the last time Texas received a drought like the one that we are going through now?

[TexasBreeze]

You know the drought is bad when the local HGX office makes a link on the sidebar detailing the drought. I just noticed the link and it's info-filled!

Drought http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=drought

[relic57]

Check out the San Jacinto River near Kingwood/Atascocita area! I shot this last night.


The Great Texas Drought by relic57, on Flickr

[unome]

watching & waiting...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a warm nose is across the area this morning to me meaning capping issues may well be a problem. Let's see what the 12Z soundings and model data offer as well as some of the rapid refresh meso models as the day wears on.

[srainhoutx]

Latest SPC update adjusts the Slight Risk, but not for SE TX:

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...
EXTENSIVE QLCS NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL TX NNE TO SE KS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ATOP ELONGATING COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH HI PW VALUES AND
MODERATE LLJ MAY YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND OR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...OVERALL SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD.

DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF MCS SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG AND E OF EXISTING ACTIVITY BY EARLY-MID
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/NE TX INTO AR...WHERE THE
RICHEST SELY MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND LAPSE
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH ERN EXTENT...AMPLE CAPE /AOA 2500 J PER KG/
AND PW /CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS THAT COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF is sniffing a possible MCS (mesoscale convective system) near Austin this afternoon/evening. That model does bring the system close to our area, but dying out with the loss of daytime heating. We will see.

[wxman57]

This would be a good day for a top secret ImpactWeather/UH balloon launch.

Word is that a 1pm launch is scheduled by the University of Houston.

12Z GFS indicates the trailing end of a narrow squall line dies out north of Houston.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Rapid Refresh (14Z run) suggests a close call...

02Z HRRR (13Z run) keeps activity to our N...

[unome]

totally depressing...

http://www.corad.org/texas_radar_map.php

[unome]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201607
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE VERY WARM START WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTN. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. PWS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO 16-18C ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIG NEGATIVE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT (AND RAIN) THAT PRESENTS ITSELF ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING IS THE CAP. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS BASICALLY AN UNBREAKABLE
CAP WITH AN 850 MB TEMP OF 23C. 700 MB TEMPS ARE 10-13C ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE
CAPPING WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTN AND CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE INITIAL CONVECTION OVER NORTH TX
WEAKENING EARLY THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL TX LATER
THIS AFTN. 00Z RUN OF THE 4KM NMM-WRF SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS NORTH...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE SRN HALF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. A SPECIAL
18Z SOUNDING WILL BE RELEASED AT TEXAS A&M TO AID WITH DETERMINING
CAP STRENGTH OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

35

[srainhoutx]

Nice write up by Forecaster Moreland. Also good to see two special soundings locally.

[unome]

yes, glad they have access to the soundings

http://aviationweather.gov/products/ccf ... fcst=final

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201708Z - 201815Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS /BY 18-19Z/.
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRONG
STORM ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS MCS...WITH THIS STORM LOCATED IN NRN SAN
SABA/WRN MILLS COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY...
SUPPORTING SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS
TX...THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

[unome]

yes, glad they have access to the soundings

http://aviationweather.gov/products/ccf ... fcst=final

Who has access to soundings? That looks like an avaiation forecast of convective coverage with expected tops, I don't see anything that resembles a sounding.


I'm sure HGX has access to the CLL sounding, some way or another, not sure if they get access to the UH sounding, but I was inquiring as to whether I could get access to the soundings.

was replying to SRain's post about special soundings - your post went up in-between

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Central and North Texas...

[wxman57]

University of Houston will be sharing their sounding data with the local NWS office. We should have some data from the soundings by around 2pm. I still expect us to be only grazed by today's activity.

[weatherag]

Props to both U of H and A&M their efforts. Launching balloons on the A&M golf course was one of the highlights of my undergrad. Got a launch off one afternoon an hour or so before an MCS rolled though BCS. Definitely valuable getting data like that especially on a day like today with uncertainty of cap strength.

[wxman57]

U of H sounding data are in. It's similar to the RUC, though a little less unstable. Note the general lack of moisture above 900mb. Lack of moisture and most of the lifting being located well to our north are the biggest issues. It's not a good sounding for any widespread rain here, but no big surprise.