EWX said it would never get here.. but they did not have the benefit of looking at the cloud formations while driving in the open plain south of Del Rio. 
May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston
Another high based storm in Del Rio EWX said it would never get here.. but they did not have the benefit of looking at the cloud formations while driving in the open plain south of Del Rio.
EWX said it would never get here.. but they did not have the benefit of looking at the cloud formations while driving in the open plain south of Del Rio. -
srainhoutx
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Wednesday continues to look interesting for severe weather across a lot of real estate in TX. SPC has a Slight Risk hoisted for a large area. Models do suggest rain chances across SE TX for Thursday/Friday along the frontal boundary, but I'm not buying it just yet as we have been down this road too many times the past couple of months to only be disappointed...
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Andrew
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Very good update from Jeff:
Hot, dry, and windy will be the theme again this week
Upper level ridge has built northward from Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend returning increasing temperatures and humidity to the region. Highs yesterday rose into the low to mid 90’s over the area and this will continue each day this week. Compressional heating off the higher terrain of NE Mexico pushed afternoon highs into the low to mid 100’s across the Rio Grande plains NNE into north central TX.
With ridge and strong capping in place there is just no hope for any rainfall. Incoming weak front on Thursday/Friday may get close enough to produce a few isolated thunderstorms, but how many times have we seen this spring fronts near us and produce nothing! In fact the GFS models only shows a decent chance of rain around May 20th and nothing before or after.
Winds will be gusty this week with lower pressures over the plains and this will help with the drying of the surface layer and vegetation.
Drought:
Incredible drought of 2011 continues with rainfall deficits for this year alone now approaching 8-11 inches over the area and since October of 2010 when this drought started 10-18 inches. Nearly ½ of SE TX is now in exceptional drought status the worst on the Palmer Drought Index and all of our counties are either in severe or extreme drought. Vegetation health is starting to greatly suffer with unirrigated fields turning brown and grasses starting to die. Hobby Airport has not recorded rainfall in 52 days a counting record now. Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Calhoun, Fort Bend, and Colorado counties have failed to receive an inch of rainfall in the last 3 months. The 1.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH since Feb 1st is only 15% of that periods normal rainfall and at Danevang in Wharton County the .69 for the same period is only 7.8%. At Victoria the current rainfall deficit from October 1, 2011 to current is 13.18 inches. For April only .03 of an inch of rain fell at Victoria.
So how does it END?
We are moving into the time of year where cold fronts will become less and less frequent and so far this spring they have been infrequent already. Without any kind of boundary there is little focus for rainfall development and with the winds howling each day the seabreeze boundary which helps produce are typical summer thunderstorms is unable to develop. Instead of looking to the north for rain…we will likely have to look toward the tropics and the upcoming 2011 hurricane season. On record Texas spring and summer droughts are almost always broken by tropical systems. The main question is if we can get an early season tropical storm in June to produce much needed rainfall…or are we going to have to suffered until August or September and then be faced with a significant hurricane threat. At this point the only weather feature that will likely be strong enough to upset to stagnant and blocked upper air pattern is a tropical system and that is about the only way we are going to get widespread wetting rains, but does it come at a big price?
Hot, dry, and windy will be the theme again this week
Upper level ridge has built northward from Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend returning increasing temperatures and humidity to the region. Highs yesterday rose into the low to mid 90’s over the area and this will continue each day this week. Compressional heating off the higher terrain of NE Mexico pushed afternoon highs into the low to mid 100’s across the Rio Grande plains NNE into north central TX.
With ridge and strong capping in place there is just no hope for any rainfall. Incoming weak front on Thursday/Friday may get close enough to produce a few isolated thunderstorms, but how many times have we seen this spring fronts near us and produce nothing! In fact the GFS models only shows a decent chance of rain around May 20th and nothing before or after.
Winds will be gusty this week with lower pressures over the plains and this will help with the drying of the surface layer and vegetation.
Drought:
Incredible drought of 2011 continues with rainfall deficits for this year alone now approaching 8-11 inches over the area and since October of 2010 when this drought started 10-18 inches. Nearly ½ of SE TX is now in exceptional drought status the worst on the Palmer Drought Index and all of our counties are either in severe or extreme drought. Vegetation health is starting to greatly suffer with unirrigated fields turning brown and grasses starting to die. Hobby Airport has not recorded rainfall in 52 days a counting record now. Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Calhoun, Fort Bend, and Colorado counties have failed to receive an inch of rainfall in the last 3 months. The 1.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH since Feb 1st is only 15% of that periods normal rainfall and at Danevang in Wharton County the .69 for the same period is only 7.8%. At Victoria the current rainfall deficit from October 1, 2011 to current is 13.18 inches. For April only .03 of an inch of rain fell at Victoria.
So how does it END?
We are moving into the time of year where cold fronts will become less and less frequent and so far this spring they have been infrequent already. Without any kind of boundary there is little focus for rainfall development and with the winds howling each day the seabreeze boundary which helps produce are typical summer thunderstorms is unable to develop. Instead of looking to the north for rain…we will likely have to look toward the tropics and the upcoming 2011 hurricane season. On record Texas spring and summer droughts are almost always broken by tropical systems. The main question is if we can get an early season tropical storm in June to produce much needed rainfall…or are we going to have to suffered until August or September and then be faced with a significant hurricane threat. At this point the only weather feature that will likely be strong enough to upset to stagnant and blocked upper air pattern is a tropical system and that is about the only way we are going to get widespread wetting rains, but does it come at a big price?
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srainhoutx
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I think many would be very happy if the current HGX discussion came even close to actually happening...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW...COLLEGE STATION HAS BROKEN ITS
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHING 97F SO FAR TODAY. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 95F IN 1937. TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH IS 95F AND WILL
FORECAST 95F ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RECORD WAS
TIED OR BROKEN. TEMPS AT 850MB ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS HOLDS TEMPS DOWN A BIT.
STILL A FORECAST OF 94F AT KCLL IS STILL 4 AND 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. THE MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW FOR SE TX WILL ON
AVERAGE BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
ABOVE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE ON WED AS WELL GIVEN SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. FLOW WILL BE MORE OFF THE GULF SO THIS COULD
HELP TEMPS OUT BUT GIVEN PC/CLEAR SKIES...STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
HEATING.
ONE OF THE HARDEST THINGS TO DO IS FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES DURING
A DROUGHT. BUT GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS AND
SREF...THINK THAT POSSIBLY THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE
TX. SPC SWODY3 HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE JUST TOUCHING
BURLESON/BRAZOS MADISON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES. LOOKING AT NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP MAY BE BREAKABLE FOR
THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THE GFS ERODES THE CAP TOO
MUCH. THERE IS CERTAINLY A SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THINK AN
INCREASE TO 30 POPS FOR THESE AREAS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
SPREADING 20 POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT DEPENDS ON THE CAP
STRENGTH. THE GFS SLOWLY SLIDES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. DECIDED TO ADD SOME 20 POPS FOR THE FRONT BEING
IN THE AREA SUPPORTING MAINLY ISO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE FINAL UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
THU/FRI THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO SO AND HAS A WEAKER FRONT WHICH
DOES NOT REACH SE TX. THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH WITH
THE FRONT TO GET IT TO SE TX EVEN WITH THE GFS PLACING THE TROUGH
IN THE MIDWEST BY LATE FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE GFS CARRYING A
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDER THE RIDGE INTO TX. GIVEN ITS
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO AT
LEAST ADD 20 POPS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE. GFS DEVELOPS 1.7-1.9 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH IS
HARD TO IGNORE GIVEN 1.9-2 INCHES IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH AS SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE PLAINS FOR SUN/MON SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPS ALSO DROP CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS OF MINS IN THE LOW 60S AND
MAXS IN THE MID 80S.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW...COLLEGE STATION HAS BROKEN ITS
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHING 97F SO FAR TODAY. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 95F IN 1937. TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH IS 95F AND WILL
FORECAST 95F ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RECORD WAS
TIED OR BROKEN. TEMPS AT 850MB ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS HOLDS TEMPS DOWN A BIT.
STILL A FORECAST OF 94F AT KCLL IS STILL 4 AND 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. THE MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW FOR SE TX WILL ON
AVERAGE BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
ABOVE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE ON WED AS WELL GIVEN SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. FLOW WILL BE MORE OFF THE GULF SO THIS COULD
HELP TEMPS OUT BUT GIVEN PC/CLEAR SKIES...STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
HEATING.
ONE OF THE HARDEST THINGS TO DO IS FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES DURING
A DROUGHT. BUT GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS AND
SREF...THINK THAT POSSIBLY THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE
TX. SPC SWODY3 HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE JUST TOUCHING
BURLESON/BRAZOS MADISON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES. LOOKING AT NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP MAY BE BREAKABLE FOR
THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THE GFS ERODES THE CAP TOO
MUCH. THERE IS CERTAINLY A SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THINK AN
INCREASE TO 30 POPS FOR THESE AREAS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
SPREADING 20 POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT DEPENDS ON THE CAP
STRENGTH. THE GFS SLOWLY SLIDES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. DECIDED TO ADD SOME 20 POPS FOR THE FRONT BEING
IN THE AREA SUPPORTING MAINLY ISO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE FINAL UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
THU/FRI THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO SO AND HAS A WEAKER FRONT WHICH
DOES NOT REACH SE TX. THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH WITH
THE FRONT TO GET IT TO SE TX EVEN WITH THE GFS PLACING THE TROUGH
IN THE MIDWEST BY LATE FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE GFS CARRYING A
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDER THE RIDGE INTO TX. GIVEN ITS
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO AT
LEAST ADD 20 POPS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE. GFS DEVELOPS 1.7-1.9 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH IS
HARD TO IGNORE GIVEN 1.9-2 INCHES IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH AS SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE PLAINS FOR SUN/MON SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPS ALSO DROP CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS OF MINS IN THE LOW 60S AND
MAXS IN THE MID 80S.
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I was just about to post that as I also felt it worthy of a copy/paste
Maybe there is a glimmer of hope for us after all.
Maybe there is a glimmer of hope for us after all.
Seems they're all essentially saying that it needs to rain before they'll start predicting rain.srainhoutx wrote:I think many would be very happy if the current HGX discussion came even close to actually happening...
After having been burned for weeks now I can certainly see why someone could have some trepidation about forcasting precip. One would wonder if the models have any way to take into account that they're calling for rain in areas that haven't seen a drop for 2 months or more.
Wow, I almost wouldn't know how to act if it actually rained ! Might just go out in yard in my swim suit & play like a kid in the puddles
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
"OTHERWISE...MODELS STILL SHOW PROMISE FOR SOME RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE TX DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES SHOULD LIFT ENE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS UNDER THE TROF AND ACROSS THRU TX IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AS THIS OCCURS. THESE IMPULSES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST SHOULD SPARK SOME SHRA/TSTMS WEST OF THE REGION ON WED...MOVING NEWD AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE NRN ZONES IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROF AND DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF WITH THE FAVORED AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT GETTING CLOSER TO SE TX. AT THIS POINT THE MOST FAVORED DAY FOR SCT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE THURS WHEN LFQ OF 250MB JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. STILL A BIT CONCERNED MODELS ARE ERODING CAP TOO QUICKLY BUT THAT BEING SAID ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE STRONG."
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
"OTHERWISE...MODELS STILL SHOW PROMISE FOR SOME RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE TX DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES SHOULD LIFT ENE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS UNDER THE TROF AND ACROSS THRU TX IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AS THIS OCCURS. THESE IMPULSES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST SHOULD SPARK SOME SHRA/TSTMS WEST OF THE REGION ON WED...MOVING NEWD AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE NRN ZONES IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROF AND DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF WITH THE FAVORED AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT GETTING CLOSER TO SE TX. AT THIS POINT THE MOST FAVORED DAY FOR SCT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE THURS WHEN LFQ OF 250MB JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. STILL A BIT CONCERNED MODELS ARE ERODING CAP TOO QUICKLY BUT THAT BEING SAID ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE STRONG."
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srainhoutx
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Yeah, almost enough to make you think we may actually see some showers/storms...almost... 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY
SWD TO THE TX GULF COAST...
...UPR MS VLY TO E TX...
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY...BUT SUPPORT A REASONABLE
EVIDENCE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DECELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO PHASING WITH A RETROGRADING IMPULSE
OVER SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THIS
EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 3.
EXPECT THAT RESIDUAL 45+ KT WLY H5 FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG BASE OF
THE PLAINS IMPULSE ACROSS N TX INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POSITIONED BENEATH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-TROP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/COLD
FRONT IN THE OZARKS SWWD INTO E AND S TX THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ARKLATEX NEWD INTO
ERN MO.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE REGION OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY FROM WRN IA/ERN
NEB SWD INTO NRN MO. HERE...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MID-LEVELS COOLER. EXPECT MULTICELL
STORMS TO THRIVE AMID MODEST BUOYANCY WITH ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 05/10/2011
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY
SWD TO THE TX GULF COAST...
...UPR MS VLY TO E TX...
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY...BUT SUPPORT A REASONABLE
EVIDENCE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DECELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO PHASING WITH A RETROGRADING IMPULSE
OVER SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THIS
EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 3.
EXPECT THAT RESIDUAL 45+ KT WLY H5 FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG BASE OF
THE PLAINS IMPULSE ACROSS N TX INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POSITIONED BENEATH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-TROP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/COLD
FRONT IN THE OZARKS SWWD INTO E AND S TX THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ARKLATEX NEWD INTO
ERN MO.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE REGION OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY FROM WRN IA/ERN
NEB SWD INTO NRN MO. HERE...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MID-LEVELS COOLER. EXPECT MULTICELL
STORMS TO THRIVE AMID MODEST BUOYANCY WITH ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 05/10/2011
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srainhoutx
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5 day qpf total are ceratinly encouraging...fingers crossed...
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Well things are starting to moisten up a bit. Raining again in Del Rio this morning. Unfortunately looks like most of the rain will stay north and west of Houston
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srainhoutx
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Looking over the various meso models and the GFS, there is some agreement on a potential for showers/storms in our area. Capping remains the $64,000.00 question and can it be broken. That said, the NAM/WRF do suggest a disturbance to a SW for Thursday. Fingers crossed that the models are trending in the right direction for at least some rainfall for our drought parched area.
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srainhoutx
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HPC has updated the 3 day qpf map. Looks like a general 1/4 inch for the area, if it verifies.
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Wow!! NWS is now putting-up 40% POPS for IAH. I haven't seen that since.....well.....it's been so long I can't even remember at this point. Let's hope we finally see something!
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txsnowmaker
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FWIW, Ch. 13 is forecasting a 40% chance of rain on both Thursday and Friday, and 20% on Saturday, with wind direction shifting from the south to north on Friday and staying that way through Tuesday at minimum.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/channel?sec ... id=6650179
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/channel?sec ... id=6650179
I actually think it's going to rain this time.
jasons wrote:I actually think it's going to rain this time.
Knock on wood!!!!
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redneckweather
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Hmmmmm, it looks like some moderate rain is trying to move into our area at the present time?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
Let's hope it really does rain. Getting sick of having no rain. 
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srainhoutx
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Looking a bit more promising....I hope it's not a mirage... 
1-3 Day QPF ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ACCOMPANIED BY 50-80 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING UPPER
LOW...WILL OVERSPREAD A BROAD PRE-DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS/ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. MODEST
CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO SOME OF THE DETAILS...BUT IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DPVA AND A WEAKLY
CAPPED/UNSTABLE MOIST SECTOR...SCATTERED CORRIDORS OF TSTMS SHOULD
FORM/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND/OR NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN
MO AND EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX TO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. A
COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE
LIKELY. OVERALL...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WHILE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD GENERALLY BE TEMPERED BY WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
1-3 Day QPF ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ACCOMPANIED BY 50-80 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING UPPER
LOW...WILL OVERSPREAD A BROAD PRE-DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS/ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. MODEST
CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO SOME OF THE DETAILS...BUT IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DPVA AND A WEAKLY
CAPPED/UNSTABLE MOIST SECTOR...SCATTERED CORRIDORS OF TSTMS SHOULD
FORM/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND/OR NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN
MO AND EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX TO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. A
COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE
LIKELY. OVERALL...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WHILE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD GENERALLY BE TEMPERED BY WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
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