EPAC Hurricane Season 2011: Kenneth Quickly Weakening

[srainhoutx]

^

Both Basins...

[Paul]

Look at the GOM.... sizzling for this time of year. Way above normal...

[Rhodesk75]

PAUL....SHHHHHHHHH....don't say that so loud! I'm JUST now starting my own business, so I do NOT want to deal with insurance hoop-la so soon. Praying for a quiet season for us, especially those of us VERY near the Freeport\Surfside coast. We've dodged some SERIOUS bullets the past few years. Lets hope that trend continues for us.

[srainhoutx]

The long range GFS is sniffing out some development in the EPAC just beyond the 15th. That model suggests a strengthening Tropical Storm heading NNW toward the Mexican Pacific Coastline beyond the 20th. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME           PRONUNCIATION
---------------------------------------------------------------
ADRIAN         AY- DREE UHN     MAX            MAKS
BEATRIZ        BEE- A TRIZ      NORMA          NOOR- MUH
CALVIN         KAL- VIN         OTIS           OH- TIS
DORA           DOR- RUH         PILAR          PEE LAHR-
EUGENE         YOU- JEEN        RAMON          RAH MOHN-
FERNANDA       FER NAN- DAH     SELMA          SELL- MAH
GREG           GREG             TODD           TAHD
HILARY         HIH- LUH REE     VERONICA       VUR RAHN- IH KUH
IRWIN          UR- WIN          WILEY          WY- LEE
JOVA           HO- VAH          XINA           ZEE- NAH
KENNETH        KEH- NETH        YORK           YORK
LIDIA          LIH- DYAH        ZELDA          ZEL- DAH

[srainhoutx]

Storms are increasing near the The Gulf of Tehuantepec as a favorable mjo pulse heads E...

[srainhoutx]

90E has been declared...



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

With a favorable MJO pulse and Kelvin wave approaching the EPAC, the GFS is sniffing out TC genesis later this week that spins up to a full blown Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise TC genesis in the EPAC by the weekend. As can be seen on the 156 hour chart, the Western Caribbean low is still around and meandering N as well...

[srainhoutx]

HWRF Model sniffing out future Adrian with the 93L run...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

91E is declared:

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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011060418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912011
EP, 91, 2011060418, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

GFDL is sniffing out an impressive Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

00Z GFS suggests Adrian in the not too distant future...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
TO THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS suggests Adrian. Just how close to the Mexican shore will it come, is the $64,000 question...

[srainhoutx]

It appears we may have a TD later today...

[srainhoutx]

We should see TD 1E later today...

[srainhoutx]

TD 1E has been declared...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912011_ep012011.ren
FSTDA
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201106071401
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.