Invest 91L in the Atlantic

[jasons2k]

Wow, we now have 91L in the Atlantic. Maybe a sign of an active season ahead?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
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201104201829
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105,
AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[srainhoutx]

I'll move this over to Hurricane Central...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a highly sheared extra or sub tropical low. It appears to be along a trough with reminants of the last weekend severe weather we saw in the Carolinas. Ana of 2003 was the last late April named storm if I recall correctly.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ptarmigan]

First invest of the year. I don't think it will form.

[wxman57]

Twin lows rotating around a common center:

[srainhoutx]

From the afternoon TWD (Tropical Weather Discussion):

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 510 NM NNE OF
PUERTO RICO AT 26.6N 63.6W WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE
CENTER. A SECONDARY SURFACE SWIRL IS LOCATED 100 NM SW OF THE
LOW CENTER NEAR 25.3N 64.7W INTERACTING WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS PUERTO
RICO ALONG 26N61W 23N61W 19N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN BANDS IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
60W-65W. A 1014 UTC WINDSAT PASS...AND A 1424 UTC ASCAT PASS
CONFIRM 30 KT WINDS N OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SECONDARY SURFACE SWIRL. UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO TRACK SW TOWARDS
HISPANIOLA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
AND STRONGER WINDS N OF THE CENTER.