April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for West Central TX until 10:00PM

[Kludge]

if the HRRR is right, the Tom Green fire dies this afternoon and San Angelo is saved.

And right on queue, that is what is in fact happening. Color me jealous, but delighted for them.

[jasons2k]

Amazing ball of convection on the satellite loops. Too bad it's so far away....

[srainhoutx]

^

And it's killing any chance for further E development under the anvils...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

VALID 202247Z - 202345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
CONTINUES.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL TX CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. MIDLEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN MANY OF THESE STORMS...WITH SEVERAL LEFT SPLITTING
STORMS PROGRESSING NWD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...EVIDENT IN
WEAKENING RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS WITH STORMS OVER COLEMAN/TOM
GREEN COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS. LATEST SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
PLACES A WEAK SFC LOW JUST W OF JCT...WITH EFFECTIVE FRONT SLOWLY
SHIFTING SWD...REINFORCED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT REMAIN
DRIVEN MAINLY BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH THE ONSET OF
DIABATIC COOLING.

FARTHER E...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT HAS FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...UNABLE TO OVERCOME WEAK
CINH AS THUNDERSTORM ANVILS HAVE SPREAD OVERHEAD. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW INTO THE LATE EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 04/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[jasons2k]

For the I-35 corridor, yes, but we've already had our heating for the day. Maybe, just maybe it will keep enough heat under the clouds to tip something off as the S/W travels SE, but I think chances of that are next to nill...

But it's a sight to behold. I haven't seen an anvil spread that large in a long time...it's almost like the good ole' days of a real spring storm season.

[jasons2k]

You can also clearly see the smoke plumes out in the Davis Mountains on the loops.

[jasons2k]

One isolated cell near Madisonville...

[Ptarmigan]

For the I-35 corridor, yes, but we've already had our heating for the day. Maybe, just maybe it will keep enough heat under the clouds to tip something off as the S/W travels SE, but I think chances of that are next to nill...

But it's a sight to behold. I haven't seen an anvil spread that large in a long time...it's almost like the good ole' days of a real spring storm season.

Quite a storm. Would be nice to see it over us.

[srainhoutx]

While we missed out yesterday on the rain, it was nice to see a few areas that needed help with the fires receive some rainfall. Models continue to advertise better chances of some relief in the form of isolated showers/storms beginning late this weekend and continuing through next Wednesday. I want to get my hopes up and it certainly looks promising in model world, but we’ve been down this road too many times this Spring to only have our hopes dashed. Fingers crossed that this is a bit of a pattern change and not another model mirage.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN AMPLE
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A
PROMINENT WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH.

ON DAY 4/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/EAST OF A DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX AND PERHAPS INTO OK. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL ARE PROBABLE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY. BUT GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
PRE-DARK SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTION...LARGELY OWING TO
ANTICIPATED MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/ONLY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS TO DELINEATE A 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.

FOR DAY 5/MONDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS. WHILE TIMING/SPATIAL
DETAILS VARY TO A DEGREE...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS SEEM
LIKELY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION.

INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD...A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-ROUND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS STILL QUITE LIMITED IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2011

[unome]

we need a "like" button for that

Somewhere, a trained professional is feeling the glass half full optimism...

[srainhoutx]

Sigh...

Code: Select all

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

       ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN
                       THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

              ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
                     NOW EXTEND TO THE COAST...

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST FRIDAY (APRIL 15TH) MORNING TRIGGERED SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN FELL IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN A NARROW STRIP ACROSS CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY...OTHERWISE MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR REMAINED DRY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL
REPORTED ON FRIDAY CAME FROM SUGARLAND WITH A TOTAL OF 0.16 INCHES
OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF LAST FRIDAY`S FRONT...VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
PREVAILED. RH VALUES PLUMMETED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 10
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES LINGERED INTO
SATURDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE
INCREASED THIS WEEK AND SO HAVE THE TEMPERATURES. APRIL 2011 HAS
BEEN VERY WARM AND IS CURRENTLY THE FIFTH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD
FOR COLLEGE STATION AND 10TH WARMEST ON RECORD FOR HOBBY AIRPORT AND
THE 13TH WARMEST APRIL FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON.

SINCE MARCH 15TH...HOBBY AIRPORT REPORTED JUST A TRACE OF RAIN IT
WAS NO BETTER AT DANEVANG WITH JUST 0.02 INCHES SINCE MARCH 15TH.
COLLEGE STATION REPORTED 0.01 INCHES AND SOMERVILLE 0.02 INCHES
SINCE THE 15TH OF MARCH.

SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST...THE CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH) HAS RECEIVED ONLY
1.58 INCHES OF RAIN...COLLEGE STATION (CLL) HAS RECEIVED 1.30
INCHES...HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) HAS RECEIVED 1.12 INCHES AND GALVESTON
(GLS) RECEIVED 3.49 INCHES. DANEVANG (WHARTON COUNTY) HAS ONLY
RECEIVED 0.69 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST.

            HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST FEB 1- APRIL 20:

       CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE        DANEVANG
       HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

    1.47 - 1916   1.12 - 2011    1.01 - 1916    0.69 - 2011
    1.57 - 1925   1.61 - 1996    1.30 - 2011    0.92 - 1925
    1.58 - 2011   2.94 - 1972    1.79 - 1972    1.00 - 1916
    1.62 - 1996   3.10 - 2006    2.14 - 1920    1.67 - 1996
    3.56 - 1920   3.24 - 1962    2.63 - 1962    2.07 - 1984

IT HAS BEEN BRUTALLY DRY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AN ISLAND OF DROUGHT FROM CALDWELL TO AUSTONIO TO LIVINGSTON
TO BELLVILLE TO CALDWELL HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. SOMERVILLE AND
COLLEGE STATION HAVE FAILED TO TALLY AN INCH OF RAIN IN SIX OF THE
LAST EIGHT MONTHS. SOMERVILLE HAS ONLY RECEIVED 4.97 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE OCTOBER 1ST OR ROUGHLY 24 PERCENT OF THE EXPECTED NORMAL
RAINFALL. COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED ONLY 6.00 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE OCTOBER 1ST OR 28.4 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NORMAL RAINFALL AT
COLLEGE STATION FOR OCTOBER 1 THROUGH APRIL 20TH IS 21.12 INCHES.
THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN A CALENDAR YEAR FOR COLLEGE STATION IS 39.67
INCHES.

THE DRY PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE AUTUMN OF
2010 AS A STRONG LA NINA PHASE DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY
JANUARY...THE OVERALL TREND SINCE OCTOBER HAS BEEN VERY DRY WITH
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

                     DRIEST OCTOBER 1 - APRIL 20

  COLLEGE         CITY OF              HOUSTON           DANEVANG
  STATION         HOUSTON (IAH)        HOBBY

  6.00  2011      10.38  1918          11.51  1956       7.03  1916
  7.75  1925      11.62  1956          11.55  2006       9.12  1918
  9.62  1951      11.92  1909          14.40  1988       9.80  1956
  9.81  1971      12.24  1917          15.54  1971      10.00  1951
 10.88  1918      12.40  2011          15.71  1989      10.73  1954
                                       15.88  2011 7TH  11.19  2011 8TH

APRIL IS ABOUT TWO THIRDS COMPLETE AND MOST LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO
TALLY EVEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH. CROCKETT LEADS
THE WAY WITH A WHOPPING 0.35 INCHES THUS FAR IN APRIL. HERE ARE SOME
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
OCTOBER 1 2010 THROUGH APRIL 20TH 2011:

LOCATION      OCT/NOV  DEC/JAN  FEB    MAR    APR    TOTAL  PERCENT
                                                            OF NORM

BELLVILLE      1.28     3.73    0.76   1.14   0.04    6.95
NORMALS        7.46     6.49    2.48   2.92   1.92   21.27  32.7
DEPARTURE     -6.18    -2.76   -1.72  -1.78  -1.88  -13.69

BRENHAM        1.45     5.43    0.81   0.80   0.02    8.51
NORMALS        8.65     6.79    2.78   2.93   2.11   23.26  36.6
DEPARTURE     -7.20    -1.36   -1.97  -2.13  -2.09  -14.07

COL STATION    0.90     3.80    0.61   0.69    T      6.00
NORMALS        7.40     6.55    2.38   2.84   1.95   21.12  28.4
DEPARTURE     -6.50    -2.75   -1.77  -2.15  -1.95  -14.39

COLUMBUS       2.59     4.81    0.64   0.48   0.05    8.57
NORMALS        8.15     6.82    2.84   2.93   2.17   22.91  37.4
DEPARTURE     -5.56    -2.01   -2.20  -2.45  -2.12  -13.63

CONROE         5.33     5.53    0.61   0.35   0.12   11.93
NORMALS        9.49     8.58    2.97   2.94   2.38   26.36  45.3
DEPARTURE     -4.16    -3.05   -2.36  -2.59  -2.26  -13.64

CROCKETT       4.28     6.41    0.70   0.35   0.35   12.09
NORMALS        8.15     8.02    3.10   3.45   2.50   25.22  47.9
DEPARTURE     -3.87    -1.61   -2.40  -3.10  -2.15  -12.35

DANEVANG       2.40     7.90    0.62   0.05   0.02   10.99
NORMALS        8.24     6.31    2.67   2.83   1.58   21.63  50.7
DEPARTURE     -5.84    +1.59   -2.05  -2.78  -1.56  -10.64

GALVESTON      8.27     5.99    0.67   2.70   0.12   17.75
NORMALS        7.13     7.61    2.61   2.76   1.63   21.74  81.6
DEPARTURE     +1.14    -1.62   -1.94  -0.06  -1.51  - 3.99

FREEPORT       3.89     5.96    0.84   0.81   0.00   11.50
NORMALS        8.94     7.80    2.84   2.87   1.80   24.25  47.4
DEPARTURE     -5.05    -1.84   -2.00  -2.06  -1.80  -12.75

HOU HOBBY      4.82     9.94    0.34   0.78    T     15.88
NORMALS        9.80     8.03    3.01   3.19   2.23   26.26  60.4
DEPARTURE     -4.98    +1.91   -2.67  -2.41  -2.23  -10.38

HOU IAH        2.73     8.09    0.69   0.78   0.11   12.40
NORMALS        8.69     7.37    2.98   3.36   2.28   24.68  50.3
DEPARTURE     -5.96    +0.72   -2.29  -2.58  -2.17  -12.28

HUNTSVILLE     2.59     4.85    0.37   0.07   0.16    8.04
NORMALS        9.19     8.38    3.14   3.47   2.23   26.41  30.4
DEPARTURE     -6.60    -3.53   -2.77  -3.40  -2.07  -18.37

LIVINGSTON     3.37     5.11    0.89   0.84   0.11   10.32
NORMALS        8.58     9.56    3.47   3.89   2.48   27.98  36.9
DEPARTURE     -5.21    -4.45   -2.58  -3.05  -2.37  -17.66

KATY           2.01     6.49    0.05   1.24   0.00    9.79
NORMALS        8.41     7.01    2.59   2.64   1.84   22.49  43.5
DEPARTURE     -6.40    -0.52   -2.54  -1.40  -1.84  -12.70

MADISONVILLE   1.26     3.98    0.81   0.95   0.08    7.08
NORMALS        8.42     7.43    2.83   3.24   2.03   23.95  29.6
DEPARTURE     -7.16    -3.45   -2.02  -2.29  -1.95  -16.87

MATAGORDA      2.90     5.08    0.61   0.89   0.00    9.48
NORMALS        7.91     6.20    2.81   2.54   1.61   21.07  45.0
DEPARTURE     -5.01    -1.12   -2.20  -1.65  -1.61  -11.59

NEW CANEY      6.18     9.13    0.96   0.90   0.16   17.33
NORMALS        9.40     8.62    3.31   3.96   2.44   27.73  62.5
DEPARTURE     -3.22    +0.51   -2.35  -3.06  -1.40  -10.40

SOMERVILLE     0.91     3.57    0.41   0.08   0.00    4.97
NORMALS        7.96     6.07    2.53   2.62   1.84   21.02  23.6
DEPARTURE     -7.05    -2.50   -2.12  -2.54  -1.84  -16.05

TOMBALL        3.28     3.52    0.30   1.24   0.05    8.39
NORMALS        9.13     7.74    3.33   3.09   2.36   25.65  32.7
DEPARTURE     -5.85    -4.22   -3.03  -1.85  -2.31  -17.26

WASH ST PARK   1.17     5.05    0.66   1.08   0.00    7.96
NORMALS        8.06     6.84    2.74   3.13   1.90   22.67  35.1
DEPARTURE     -6.89    -1.79   -2.08  -2.05  -1.90  -14.71

HERE ARE SOME PARTIAL APRIL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR OTHER COMMUNITIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

LOCATION       APRIL    NORM    DEP

ANAHUAC        0.02     2.31   -2.29
BAY CITY       0.01     1.97   -1.96
BAYTOWN        0.00     2.28   -2.28
CLEVELAND      0.07     2.35   -2.28
EDNA           0.06     1.76   -1.70
EL CAMPO       0.03     NA      NA
HOU NWS        0.01     2.76   -2.75
HOU WESTBURY   0.05     2.16   -2.11
LIBERTY        0.26     2.56   -2.30
MONTGOMERY     0.12     2.35   -2.23
PALACIOS       0.01     1.88   -1.06
RICHMOND       0.02     2.26   -2.24
SUGARLAND      0.16     2.26   -2.10
W COLUMBIA     0.05

THE LAST TIME THE HOUSTON AREA RECEIVED A SOAKING RAIN...DEFINED FOR
THIS STATEMENT AS A CALENDAR DAY WITH AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OCCURRED ON
JANUARY 24TH. BELOW ARE DATES WITH THE LAST TIME THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCURRED DURING A CALENDAR DAY AT THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES:

SITE       2.00 OR MORE     1.00 OR MORE    0.50 OR MORE

IAH        SEP  7 2010      JAN 24 2011     JAN 24 2011
HOU        JAN 24 2011      JAN 24 2011     MAR 14 2011
CLL        SEP  7 2010      JAN  9 2011     JAN  9 2011
GLS        MAR  5 2011      MAR  5 2011     MAR  5 2011

DROUGHTS AND HEAT GO HAND IN HAND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 60
DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY WARM. THE CITY OF HOUSTON RECORDED ITS WARMEST
FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH APRIL 20TH IN RECORDED HISTORY. COLLEGE
STATION AND HOBBY AIRPORT ALSO REPORTED THEIR WARMEST PERIOD ON
RECORD. THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL IS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. EACH OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES
HAS RECORDED AT LEAST ONE NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH.

HERE ARE THE FIVE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES FROM FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH APRIL 20TH:

          CITY OF       HOUSTON      COLLEGE      GALVESTON
          HOUSTON       HOBBY        STATION

          69.0 2011     69.9 2011    68.7 2011    68.7 1907
          68.0 1908     68.1 1972    66.5 1972    68.6 1882
          67.9 1925     67.6 2000    66.4 1925    67.9 2011
          66.9 1918     67.2 1967    65.9 1911    67.5 1925
          66.8 1967     67.0 1986    65.2 2006    67.4 1972

AS OF APRIL 19TH 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OR D-4.
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED SOUTH AND NOW
COVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCLUDING THE AREA AROUND GALVESTON
BAY. THERE ARE 23 COUNTIES THAT COMPRISE AN AREA REFERRED TO AS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 13 OF THE COUNTIES ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WITH ANOTHER FIVE COUNTIES CLASSIFIED AS EXTREME
DROUGHT.

STATEWIDE...ABOUT 15 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS CLASSIFIED AS
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WITH ABOUT 5 PERCENT OF THIS TOTAL COVERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW D3 AND 91 PERCENT OF
THE STATE IS D2 OR WORSE. ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW CLASSIFIES
AS D2...D3 OR D4. THE DROUGHT OF 2011 IS HISTORIC IN IT
LENGTH...SEVERITY...AREA COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF DAMAGE.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDICES REFLECT
D-3 AND D-4 CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF MARCH 29TH:

                  D-4            D-3            D-2

                  EXCEPTIONAL    EXTREME       SEVERE
                  DROUGHT        DROUGHT       DROUGHT

                  AUSTIN         HARRIS        BRAZORIA
                  BRAZOS         JACKSON       CHAMBERS
                  BURLESON       LIBERTY       FORT BEND
                  COLORADO       WHARTON       GALVESTON
                  GRIMES         WALLER        MATAGORDA
                  HOUSTON
                  MADISON
                  MONTGOMERY
                  POLK
                  SAN JACINTO
                  TRINITY
                  WALKER
                  WASHINGTON


                 U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS
   OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE! THE REGION REMAINS
VERY DRY. RANGELAND...PASTURES...HAY FIELDS AND NON-IRRIGATED TRUCK
CROPS WERE SHOWING SEVERE DROUGHT STRESS. CATTLE WERE SLOWLY
DECLINING BECAUSE OF POOR PASTURES AND SOME PRODUCERS WERE CULLING
THEIR HERDS. HAY SUPPLIERS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SHORT OF SUPPLIES
SOON. PLANTING OF NEW FORAGES WERE PUT ON HOLD DUE TO A LACK OF
MOISTURE. STOCK WATER TANKS AND POND LEVELS WERE DROPPING
DRASTICALLY WITH SOME NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. WINTER WHEAT
PRODUCTION WAS POOR. TRINITY COUNTY HAS BEEN DECLARED A DISASTER
AREA DUE TO THE 2010 DROUGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG/TODAY (ALL LOWER CASE).

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS CRITICALLY DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN 1000
HOUR FUEL WAS LESS THAN 17 PERCENT WEST OF A HIGH ISLAND TO
SUGARLAND TO VICTORIA LINE AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WEST OF A
CROCKETT TO NEW WAVERLY TO BRENHAM LINE. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE
DAY AVERAGES SHOW A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

STRONG WINDS...DRY GROUND FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS COMBINED TO
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WILD FIRES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THERE WERE AT LEAST NINE WILD FIRES IN THE LAST WEEK. THE LARGEST
FIRE WAS IN TRINITY COUNTY WITH OVER 1300 ACRES CHARRED. THIS FIRE
WAS NOTED AS HAVING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN NORMAL RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO RAISE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE
KBDI VALUES ARE RISING QUICKLY. TEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW
EXCEED 600. BURLESON COUNTY NOW HAS A KBDI VALUE EXCEEDING 700. IF
THE AREA REMAINS RAIN FREE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BRAZOS AND
WASHINGTON AND MADISON COUNTIES COULD HAVE KBDI VALUES NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 700. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (4/20/2011):

           700-800       600-700       500-600       400-500

           BURLESON      AUSTIN        BRAZORIA      CHAMBERS
                         BRAZOS        FORT BEND
                         COLORADO      HARRIS
                         GRIMES        LIBERTY
                         HOUSTON       MATAGORDA
                         JACKSON       WHARTON
                         MADISON
                         MONTGOMERY
                         POLK
                         SAN JACINTO
                         TRINITY
                         WALKER
                         WALLER
                         WASHINGTON


(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
BURN BANS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE AND 206 COUNTIES HAVE ISSUED
BURN BANS. LOCALLY...ONLY ONE COUNTY...FORT BEND...HAS NOT ISSUED A
BURN BAN. FORT BEND COUNTY HAS INDICATED THAT A BURN BAN WILL BE
ISSUED NEXT WEEK.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON APRIL 21ST 2011...
(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BRAZORIA...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALLER...WALKER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SOMEHOW LAKE LIVINGSTON AND LAKE HOUSTON REMAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT
CAPACITY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO DECLINE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
WILL BEGIN TO DROP UNLESS RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION. RESERVOIRS
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE DROPPED AND LEVELS
ARE APPROACHING 70 PERCENT CAPACITY AT LAKE TEXANA.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     91.5 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             95.3 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                    96.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 78.9 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     69.9 PERCENT

WATER RESTRICTIONS...THERE ARE VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT NEW WAVERLY...HUNTSVILLE AND RIVERSIDE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THERE IS ALSO MODERATE RATIONING OF WATER IN HARRIS COUNTY IN MUD
230.

IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DOES NOT FALL SOON...RESIDENTS AND OTHER WATER
USERS IN THE DESIGNATED D3 AND D4 ZONES SHOULD PREPARE FOR SOME TYPE
OF WATER RESTRICTION.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY APRIL 26TH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S
WEATHER SYSTEM.

THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 1 2011 VALID FOR THE
PERIOD OF APRIL...MAY AND JUNE SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OR INTENSIFY.

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND APRIL 28TH
2011.

$$

CR

[srainhoutx]

From Dallas/Ft Worth NWS:

.CLIMATE...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE 12-YEAR HISTORY OF THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR...THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS IS IN DROUGHT. TWO THIRDS OF
TEXAS IS CATEGORIZED AS BEING IN EXTREME (D3) OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4)...THE GREATEST EXTENT ON RECORD.

[Ptarmigan]

This could be one of the worst drought on par with 1950s and 1910s.

[srainhoutx]

SPC has our area very close to severe storm chances for Monday and Tuesday...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 /THU.
4-28/...WITH RESPECT TO A LARGE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT/EVOLVE SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 7...AND AS IT
DOES...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE NWD...AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE -- BEING
ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A
MULTIPLE-DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT AREA SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.

WILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA FROM E TX NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO
ERN OK/WRN AR/SWRN MO FOR DAY 4 /MON. 4-25/...WHERE RELATIVELY
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

A SIMILAR THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5...AS THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NNEWD AND A SECOND SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGS SEWD
TOWARD/INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

ATTM...SPECIFICS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GET MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN DAY 6 /WED. 4-27/ AND BEYOND...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE
MS VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/22/2011

[srainhoutx]

The Euro looks a bit more promising, but I'm still not holding my breath...

[unome]

Impact Weather posted a video about a possible major tornado outbreak next week, but not in our area

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aO88SKdpF4

[txflagwaver]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2008 a really dry year?

[srainhoutx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2008 a really dry year?

We were dry in the Spring of 2008. Hurricane Dolly (S TX) did provide a brief relief in early summer. We all know what happened in September and it so happens that 2008 is being tossed around as an early candidate of a good analog year regarding the upcoming Tropical Season. Those that follow tropical weather can find our discussions that are already ongoing in our Hurricane Central Forum...shameless plug...

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=4

[srainhoutx]

The HPC is a bit promising regarding QPF totals, but capping still looks like a big concern in squashing our chances of some beneficial rainfall locally. Monday seems to be the day that the cap would be breakable (convective temps in the mid 80's) and the SPC has outlined a Slight Risk just to our N and E. Fingers crossed that we can squeeze out more that a sprinkle or two.

[srainhoutx]

Nice trend on the 12Z WRF for areas to the N and W of downtown that are in an Extreme Drought situation for Monday afternoon...