Emails From Jeff:

[Andrew]

email from Jeff Lindner Thursday morning:

***Winter Storm Warning issued for all of SE TX, coastal bend, S TX, and SW LA***


Historic winter storm event within 8-12 hours of starting.


Do not think we will get the entire evening rush hour in before the event starts.



I will begin hourly updates starting at 100pm this afternoon.



Discussion:

Powerful upper level low continues to dig into northern Mexico this morning with increasing moisture clearly noted on radar and satellite images. Starting to get a few returns on the radar images this morning, but very dry sub-cloud layer is evaporating prior to the precip. reaching the ground..this process will continue for the morning before the low levels saturate and then the main show begins. Looks at the forecast soundings this morning, still believe the best course of action is to go with more sleet and snow than ice and will go ahead and bump snowfall totals up a tad across the entire area to fit with more snow than sleet/freezing rain.



Timing:

Starting to see some light sleet over Galveston Island in the last hour and echoes on the radar are increasing along the US 59 corridor and down around Corpus Christi. So far only GLS has reported anything reaching the ground as that low level air mass is very dry. Expect to see the radar echoes intensify this morning and saturate the low levels first on the coast and then spreading inland. It is very hard to determine how long it will take to bring the low levels to saturation, but once that point is reached precip. will reach the ground. Will go with onset of precip. reaching the ground 1-2pm along the coast and 300-400pm along US 59 including metro Houston and then all regions by 600pm. Road conditions will deteriorate very quickly once precip onsets with road temperatures at or below freezing both on bridges/overpasses and on surface streets.



Accumulations:

Will hit the entire area with 1-3 inches this includes the coastal bend, all of SE TX and into SW LA. Feel along and about 40-50 miles NW of US 59 is where the greatest totals will be with isolated amounts upwards of 4-5 inches possible. The only location where some freezing rain may fall is right along the coast from Freeport to Galveston Island and then inland toward southern Liberty County…will go with ice accumulations of .1-.25 of an inch in this region and then an inch of snow on top of the ice. Models continue to advertise convective nature to the event supporting the threat of meso bands with heavy snow. SPC has in fact placed a large part of the area under a thunderstorm risk for tonight supporting the threat for some convective events within the overall snow shield.



It is likely that everyone will see some accumulation, but where the biggest totals will be is nearly impossible to predict under the event is underway.



Temperatures:

Expect temperatures to hover at or below freezing all day and then in the mid to upper 20’s tonight and below freezing all day on Friday. May see a few locations rise to near 32-35 for an hour Friday afternoon if skies clear, but a rapid fall Friday night under clearings skies and light winds…with snow cover will result in lows back into the low 20’s for nearly all areas.



Travel:

Extremely dangerous travel conditions will be developing across the entire region and by early evening surface travel will be difficult. Travel on Friday will be nearly impossible and all residents are being urged to drive only if it is an emergency. Do not expect roads to recover until maybe sometime on Saturday afternoon. Ground crews will attempt to keep sanding operations ongoing, but given the size of this event will quickly be overwhelmed



Aviation:

It is going to get bad at the airports and suspect ground operations will not be able to keep the airports open. Continental has already cancelled all operations starting at 300pm today until noon Friday. Aircraft that depart will require extensive de-icing operations and snow removal operations for runways. Suspect at some point likely tonight that these operations will be suspended due to the storm intensity.



Power:

ERCOT has ordered another round of rotating blackouts from 600-800am this morning to conserve power on the TX grid. With more of a threat of snow/sleet feel that most power infrastructure will be OK during this event, except near the coast and Galveston bay where freezing rain may be possible with some ice accumulations.

[txflagwaver]

Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for all of SE TX



With ice on the ground, clearing late this afternoon and light winds, near excellent cooling conditions will be present tonight will may produce the coldest lower temperatures of this entire arctic event. Widespread lows in the upper teens to lower 20’s will be likely across the entire area for much of the night. After tonight the warm up will begin with the final end of this arctic outbreak and its associated winter weather.



The following is a list of reports from the Winter Storm Event:



Giddings: .5 inch of snow

Cuero: ¼ inch ice accumulation

Lexington: 2.0 inches snow

Moulton: 1/10 inch ice accumulation

Sealy: 1/4th inch ice accumulation

College Station: 1/4th inch ice accumulation + .2 snow

Houston: 1/4th ice accumulation over most of metro Houston

Crockett: .02 inch snow

Liberty: .12 ice accumulation

Madisonville: .8 inch snow

Galveston: 1/10th ice accumulation….power outages on Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula

Conroe: 1/10th ice accumulation…40 traffic accidents countywide

Weslaco: 1.0 inch ice accumulation….power outages

Teleferner: 1/10th sleet accumulation

Seadrift: ¼ inch ice accumulation

Corpus Christi: 1/10th inch ice accumulation….all freeways closed

LaGrange: ice storm: 20 semi-trucks stranded on I-10, HWY 71 closed

Brownsville: ice storm: 3/8th ice accumulation





Road conditions:

Sun is breaking through the low level deck and allowing pavement temperatures to increase to near or below freezing at many locations. Still some ice covered areas on some of the flyovers and high ramps, but cameras and road crews indicate improving conditions. Residents should still use extreme caution at any bridges and overpasses.



All Toll roads remain closed at this time, but HCTRA has cleared all stranded motorist on flyover connectors.



Less traveled roads outside of Harris County around the coastal bend likely still have some ice also.



Poor P-type and Snow Forecast:

What a forecast bust on the P-type for this event not only for Harris County, but much of coastal Texas which was expected to get mostly snow instead of freezing rain/ice. I was so focused on the moisture profile that I really neglected the temperature profiles and the potential for the advection of warm air inland along the coast. First real sign of problems was widespread freezing rain to our southwest and then at College Station (which should have been a complete snow profile), then the 600pm Thursday sounding came in showing a pronounced warm layer above a freezing surface layer…a classic freezing rain sounding. Corpus was colder and DFW was an all snow profile, so SE TX lied somewhere in between. I expected at least some cooling as the upper trough moved across this morning, but the moisture shifted northeast quickly ending the threat of precipitation. Typically, we have moisture down here, but not the cold air and with a such a deep and cold arctic dome in place prior to this event, I did not think enough warm advection especially what occurred would have warmed that mid layer so much. I suppose I could blame it on the models which were too warm and never showed such warming, but the thickness values were only marginal to begin with and some of the models did in fact hold the 540 thickness west of the area. Anyhow the end result was really the same as far as impacts with horrid road conditions which were probably somewhat worse with the ice, but crushed dreams of many children and some adults expecting a record snow event or at least some kind of snow, I do apologize for that.



This will be the final update on this event!

[txflagwaver]

Email from Jeff 10am 2/14/2011

Active weather pattern of the past month will subside this week with La Nina type conditions returning to the state.



Main weather item of concern will be the cold nearshore waters and warm moist Gulf air flowing over these waters resulting in the formation of dense sea fog. Widespread fog event is in progress this morning, but this fog is from the surface air temperatures cooling to the dewpoint (radiation fog) and not so much advection sea fog. However upstream dewpoints over the coastal bend are reaching into the mid and upper 50’s and this air mass will be advecting into the upper TX coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Southerly flow is slightly less favorable for sea fog formation than a SE or E flow, but feel that with water temperatures in the upper 40’s and dewpoints climbing to near 60 the spread is significant enough for dense sea fog formation even with an unfavorable wind direction. Water temperatures will have to warm toward the dewpoints to end this threat and this will likely not happen this week suggesting periods of dense sea fog along the coast and spreading inland each evening. Some coastal locations and inland bays may stay socked in much of the week.



Zonal flow aloft will bring fairly uneventful weather to the state with a slow warming trend each day. Morning fog/low clouds should lift and burn off by late morning/early afternoon allowing highs to make the low to mid 70’s each day. Coastal locations may struggle to reach the lower 60’s as sea fog hangs tough and south winds advect colder water temperature affected air mass inland. Very strong 850-700mb capping will preclude any significant chances of rainfall for the next 7 days, except for maybe some drizzle or streamer showers moving in off the western Gulf late in the weekend or next weekend.



A weak frontal boundary may approach the region this weekend, but current thinking is that main push of cold air will be eastward and not southward and the front will come up stationary either over the region or north of the region. A stronger system/front may approach the region toward early next week bringing a better chance of rains and cooler conditions. Until then enjoy a taste of spring…but remember it is still winter and cold air may make a return toward the end of February.

[srainhoutx]

Storm system approaching Texas this morning with thunderstorms already ongoing over NW TX.

Sea fog still plaguing the upper TX coastal waters and Galveston Bay. Galveston Island has reported fog now for about 5 days with visibilities again this morning less than ¼ of a mile. Coastal locations will finally get a brief break on Friday as a front moves offshore…but sea fog will likely return rapidly on Saturday.

Upper level trough is ejecting out of the SW US into W TX this morning. Zone of ascent is crossing into the state from the southwest and the result has been thunderstorm formation from NC OK into NW TX. Southward across SW TX the dry line has begun to surge eastward, but warm mid level temperatures (cap) has so far prevented thunderstorms from developing. Across SE TX moisture continues to surge inland from the Gulf of Mexico with dewpoints well into the 60’s and PWS approaching 1.3 inches. Would like to see the 12Z soundings that are not in just yet to see how large the capping is over the region. Feel there is still enough capping and with winds progged to go WSW in the mid levels this afternoon even more warm mid level air will advect into the area. Like the WRF model of the expected development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Most favored area will be along and north of I-10 and really looks to be north of HWY 105 where thunderstorms will be possible with little to no rain over the Matagorda Bay region. Line of showers/storms should reach our W/NW counties around 100-200pm and cross the area late this afternoon and early evening.

Majority of the region will see a brief shower and maybe a little thunder with the best chances for strong/severe storms north of HWY 105 and east of I-45 where SPC has outlooked this region for this afternoon. Should more heating occur today than expected (skies clear out) and the cap weaken over the area, the threat for severe storms would then possibly dig as far SW as I-10.

Weak front will bring nice conditions through Friday, but SE winds rapidly return early Saturday with sea fog and moisture streaming back into the area. Expect the coastal locations to crater back into the sea fog Saturday morning as warm dewpoints surge back over cool shelf waters. Moisture really increases Saturday afternoon and evening with a chance of showers developing ahead of the next system due in Sunday night. Once again it appears mid level flow goes SW and capping advects over the region from NE Mexico shutting down thunderstorm chances. Looks like a slightly better shot at mainly light showers under the cap on Sunday and Sunday night. Cold front early Monday will knock lows back down into the 40’s and highs in the 60’s for the first few days of March.

Fire Weather:

Storm systems today and again Sunday will produce dangerous fire weather conditions over much of TX along and W of I-35. Strong winds of 20-30mph over dry fuels and very low RH will make for prime fire conditions. Sunday is looking to be the worst of the two days with surface winds of 30-40mph and RH of less than 20% by late morning. Fire growth will be rapid and erratic. Red Flag Warnings will likely be required for portions of the state on both days. Locally, RH values should remain high enough to preclude a significant fire threat.

SPC Day 1 Outlook:

[srainhoutx]

Impressive late season cold front roaring southward this morning with strong winds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Front is along a line from DFW to SW TX and moving SE at 30-40mph. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed along the boundary over N TX where local convergence on the boundary has broken the capping inversion in place. Ahead of the front southerly flow continues to pump moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico with surface dewpoints in the sticky upper 60’s to lower 70’s across the region on gusty winds. Front will reach our northern counties around 1000am and the US 59 corridor between noon and 200pm and then off the coast by 400pm. Strong convergence along the boundary along with modest heating this morning may be enough to break the strong cap in place over SE TX. Best chances for thunderstorms will be along and east of I-45 where the cap will be weakest. Favorable shear will support some of the storms going severe if they are able to develop. Higher likelihood is that a band of showers/thunderstorms develops along the boundary and pushes across the region with the cap holding in most areas. Areas around Matagorda Bay may not see any rainfall at all as boundary layer winds switch SW prior to the front passing the region and produces significant low level drying. Will need to keep an eye on trends over the DFW area for the next few hours to see if storms are able to persist as the move SE toward our region….in fact recent radar images from the Granger radar show development west of Austin ahead of the frontal boundary suggesting the cap may not be as strong as the models have shown.

Very strong pressure rises behind the front is resulting in strong NW winds of 30-45mph behind the boundary over N and W TX this morning. Surface observations show dust/haze plumes are being generated over the rolling plains of west TX and some of this may reach our area this evening. Very strong N winds of 30-40mph will develop over the region post front. Given the spring green up is well underway over the region, even with the strong winds and very dry air mass moving into the area fire weather concerns will be marginal. Westward over C TX and SC TX into the coastal bend where vegetation is drier, fire weather concerns will be much greater with Red Flag Warnings already in place.

Very cool tonight by April standards as dry air and clear skies allow most locations to fall into the 40’s. Surface high moves eastward late Tuesday allowing an extended period of onshore flow to develop with a gradual warming and moistening trend into next week. Rain chances after today will be near zero into next weekend and this will only worsen ongoing drought conditions.

[txflagwaver]

One of the worst wildfire days in Texas history occurred yesterday.



Drought conditions across SE TX deepen into the “exceptional” category or the worst category on the US drought index scale. Current drought is the second worst since the late 1800’s with the 1950’s multi year drought being the worst on record.



Red Flag Fire Warning issued for all of SE TX for today.



Upper level trough which brought strong tornadoes to the upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday brought very strong winds across Texas this weekend. The strong winds along with very low surface RH and bone dry vegetation led to one of the worst wildfire outbreaks the state has ever experienced. Fires already burning over west TX from last week exploded on Sunday as surface winds of 35-55mph resulted in rapid forward fire growth. In Potter County alone an ongoing fire went from 1,000 to 65,000+ acres in a few hours on Sunday afternoon. The Midland County fire which was also burning prior to yesterday expanded to 16,500 acres and burned 34 homes. In Presidio County the Marfa Fire burned an unknown number of acres and 20-30 homes. In the last 7 days, 200 wildfires have burned 187, 113 acres across the state of Texas. 25 states are currently supplying resources to the state of Texas including both ground and air support to attempt to contain ongoing fires.



Cool front will move across the region this morning ushering in a very dry and windy air mass. Critical fire weather concerns will be met at many locations today leading to potential rapid and explosive wildfire growth. Very strong cap in place this morning has and will continue to prevent thunderstorms from developing and the lack of rain will only worsen the ongoing drought and fire weather. Afternoon RH is expected to fall to less than 20% west of I-45 and 20-30% east of I-45 and this combined with NW winds of 15-20mph and very dry surface fuels all support a high fire danger this afternoon and evening. Highest threat area will be in the Montgomery and Walker county areas where fires have been the last few days in the dense forest regions. The state of Texas and the Texas forest Service has equipment and manpower prepositioned in the region to quickly respond to any wildfire.



Otherwise, little change from our dry and windy weather for this week. What appeared to be a decent shot at rainfall for this Thursday has slowly trended toward another dry frontal passage as strong aping will prevent anything from developing along the boundary over SE and S TX. Winds will be weakest on Tuesday for the first time in days and then swing back to the south and increase on Wednesday. Should see strong southerly flow Thursday as the next trough approaches from the west and passes well north. Wednesday/Thursday are looking to be dangerous fire days across the state and suspect a few very large and fast moving fires will develop.



Drought Update:


After another very dry week the drought index update last Friday pushed much of the area into an exceptional drought, indicating significant impacts from drought on vegetation and livestock. Since February 1st, Conroe has only received .97 of an inch of rainfall and at Huntsville only .49 of an inch. Below are the rainfall amounts and departures for the past six months from the National Weather Service.:





LOCATION OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL PERCENT OF NORMAL





BELLVILLE 0.00 1.28 0.98 2.75 0.76 1.14 6.91 35.7

NORMALS 3.70 3.76 3.16 3.33 2.48 2.92 19.35

DEPARTURE -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72 -1.78 -12.44


BRENHAM 0.03 1.42 1.28 4.15 0.81 0.80 8.49 40.3

NORMALS 4.48 4.17 3.29 3.41 2.78 2.93 21.06

DEPARTURE -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97 -2.13 -12.57


COL STATION T 0.90 0.81 2.99 0.61 0.69 6.00 31.3

NORMALS 4.22 3.18 3.23 3.32 2.38 2.84 19.17

DEPARTURE -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77 -2.15 -13.17


COLUMBUS 0.00 2.59 1.30 3.51 0.64 0.48 8.52 41.1

NORMALS 4.16 3.99 3.21 3.61 2.84 2.93 20.74

DEPARTURE -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20 -2.45 -12.22


CONROE T 5.33 1.49 4.04 0.61 0.35 11.82 49.3

NORMALS 4.70 4.79 4.37 4.21 2.97 2.94 23.98

DEPARTURE -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36 -2.59 -12.16


CROCKETT 0.85 3.43 1.12 5.29 0.70 0.35 11.74 51.7

NORMALS 4.22 3.93 4.02 4.00 3.10 3.45 22.72

DEPARTURE -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40 -3.10 -10.98


DANEVANG 0.00 2.40 4.28 3.62 0.37 0.05 10.72 53.5

NORMALS 4.56 3.68 3.08 3.23 2.67 2.83 20.05

DEPARTURE -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30 -2.78 -9.33


GALVESTON 1.37 6.90 2.13 3.86 0.67 2.70 17.63 87.7

NORMALS 3.49 3.64 3.53 4.08 2.61 2.76 20.11

DEPARTURE -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94 -0.06 -2.48


FREEPORT 0.03 3.86 1.75 4.21 0.84 0.81 11.50 51.2

NORMALS 4.52 4.42 3.51 4.29 2.84 2.87 22.45

DEPARTURE -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00 -2.06 -10.95


HOU HOBBY 0.07 4.75 5.84 4.10 0.34 0.78 15.88 66.1

NORMALS 5.26 4.54 3.78 4.25 3.01 3.19 24.03

DEPARTURE -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67 -2.41 -8.15


HOU IAH 0.02 2.71 3.04 5.05 0.69 0.78 12.24 54.6

NORMALS 4.50 4.19 3.69 3.68 2.98 3.36 22.40

DEPARTURE -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29 -2.58 -10.16


HUNTSVILLE 0.58 2.01 1.23 3.62 0.37 0.07 7.88 32.6

NORMALS 4.32 4.87 4.10 4.28 3.14 3.47 24.18

DEPARTURE -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77 -3.40 -16.30


LIVINGSTON 0.14 3.23 1.38 3.73 0.89 0.84 10.21 40.0

NORMALS 3.82 4.76 4.92 4.64 3.47 3.89 25.50

DEPARTURE -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58 -3.05 -15.29


KATY 0.00 2.01 1.73 4.76 0.05 1.24 8.55 41.4

NORMALS 4.00 4.41 3.67 3.34 2.59 2.64 20.65

DEPARTURE -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54 -1.40 -9.46


MADISONVILLE 0.21 1.05 1.09 2.89 0.81 0.95 7.29 33.3

NORMALS 4.41 4.01 3.62 3.81 2.83 3.24 21.92

DEPARTURE -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02 -2.29 -14.63


MATAGORDA 0.05 2.85 1.66 3.42 0.61 0.89 9.48 48.7

NORMALS 3.72 4.19 2.57 3.63 2.81 2.54 19.46

DEPARTURE -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20 -1.65 -9.98


NEW CANEY 0.00 6.18 2.71 6.42 0.96 0.90 17.17 67.9

NORMALS 4.57 4.83 4.40 4.22 3.31 3.96 25.29

DEPARTURE -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35 -3.06 -8.12


SOMERVILLE 0.03 0.88 0.80 2.77 0.41 0.08 4.97 25.9

NORMALS 4.33 3.63 3.14 2.93 2.53 2.62 19.18

DEPARTURE -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12 -2.54 -14.21

TOMBALL T 3.28 1.00 2.52 0.30 1.24 8.34 35.8

NORMALS 4.02 5.11 3.89 3.85 3.33 3.09 23.27

DEPARTURE -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03 -1.85 -14.93

WASH ST PARK 0.00 1.17 1.29 3.76 0.66 1.08 7.96 38.3

NORMALS 4.38 3.68 3.30 3.54 2.74 3.13 20.77

DEPARTURE -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08 -2.05 -12.81


There appears to be little relief in sight as the 7-14 days period continues to show a dry signal in the CPC outlooks and model data. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen.

[txflagwaver]

If last Sunday was a bad fire weather day, the last 3 days have been even worse especially Friday and Saturday.

Several new fires developed last Friday and Saturday and continue to burn out of control this morning. Fires have become increasingly more dangerous over the past few weeks as vegetations continues to dry resulting in hotter and larger fires than in the previous weeks. Fires have exhibited growth into the crown (tops) of trees which results in fast forward spread and dangerous/ineffective ground control. Fires of this nature are typically seen in the western US and California compared to the brush and grass/rangeland fires over Texas. Heavy air support is needed to contain such fires.

Large Fires Update:

Possum Kingdom Fire: Fire jumped containment lines early Friday due to 40-50mph and burned 45,000 acres. 200 homes were threatened, 31 were destroyed, 1 fatality. Fire remains uncontained.

Wildcate Fire (San Angelo): 125,000 acres burned north of San Angelo. 400 homes are threatened. Fire is 10% contained.

Wichita Falls Fire: comprised of 3 separate fires. 11,700 acres burned. Hundreds of homes threatened, 20 destroyed. Fire is 80% contained

Cooper MT Ranch Fire (Near Camp Springs): 152,000 acres burned, 4 homes destroyed. Fire is 50% contained.

Rockhouse/Marfa Fire: 182,007 acres burned. 23 homes and 2 businesses destroyed. In Fort Davis. Extensive efforts continue to bring this fire under control by air and ground crews. 200 fire fighters are working on burn out operations on the western flank of the fire. Numerous heavy air tankers and helicopters are being used.

Swenson Fire: 120,000 acres burned. Fire breached containment lines yesterday on the SE flank.

Hickman Fire (Midland): 16,500 acres burned. 98% contained. 34 homes burned and 62 damaged.

Eastland Fire (Carbon City): 3,000 acres burning, 95% contained. 1200 homes were threatened.

South Austin Fire: Grass fire rapidly grew upscale into a brush fire south of the City of Austin yesterday afternoon. 10 homes were burned and over 100 homes were threatened.

Locally:

Tomball Fire: Fire developed Saturday in heavy brush along Willow Creek and FM 2920. A mobile home park and several homes were threatened, none were lost

Hardin County: 3,000 acre fire is burning in heavy pine forest north of Beaumont. TX Forest Service is actively cutting fire lines and using air support to bring the fire under control

Trinity County: 1200 acre fire around Livingston continues to burn. Several homes were threatened on Sunday.

As of yesterday afternoon 11 forest fires were burning in SE TX all in Polk, Trinity, Houston, Walker, and Brazos counties requiring TX Forest Service support. An additional five grass fires burned on Saturday and Sunday in Houston, Burleson, Wharton, and Jackson counties, but were able to be brought under control by local fire departments.

In the last 7 days 217 additional fires have developed burning a total of 730,659 acres. Since January 1st, almost 5800 fires have burned 1.2 million acres across the state of Texas.

Ongoing Fire Activity Map (note the large increase in fires burning in the pine forest over east and SE TX):





http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/7dayfires.png



Weather Outlook:

We should finally see some relief for the fire operations as Gulf moisture has increased over the region in the last 24 hours on southerly winds. While the moisture helps limit fire start up, the strong south winds will fan already ongoing fires. Strong winds on Sunday resulted in rapid fire spread and erratic behavior and jumping of fire containment lines. Winds will remain strong today and Tuesday across the entire state out of the south and southwest.



West TX dry line will mix eastward to I-35 on Tuesday afternoon and may be the focus for a few thunderstorms is strong capping can be overcome. Current thinking is that the cap will hold strong over the region and thunderstorms will not be able to form this far south. Storms that do develop will likely produce lightening that may induce additional fires as seen last Thursday night. A slightly better shot at rainfall may come Wednesday afternoon as a cool front sinks into SE TX and stalls. While still strong the capping looks to weaken slightly and combined with strong heating may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. Anything that does develop will be fairly isolated, but it is the best shot we have as the following period looks dry through the weekend.



Drought conditions continue to worsen across the entire region and little rain is forecast over the next 7 days. Vegetation health is starting to greatly suffer and lake/water supply system are continuing to decline. For the month of April BUSH IAH has only had .11 of an inch of rainfall, the previous driest April on record had .33 of an inch of rainfall. It is even worse at Sugar Land and Richmond where only a trace of rain has fallen and at Wharton only .67 of an inch has fallen since Feb 1st.



Voluntary water restrictions have been put into effect for the cities of New Waverly, Huntsville, and Riverside until future notice. Lake Texana in Jackson County has fallen to 71% of capacity with Lake Somerville at 82%.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff regarding Hurricane Season 2011:

Today marks the start of the 2011 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. 2010 was a very active year from a number of storms standpoint, but fairly uneventful for the US coast with few impacts. Yet, again this year as in the past several seasons the indicators point to another active to very active hurricane season with an increased threat for US landfalls especially along the US Gulf coast. These indicators include:

1. Continued warm (above average) sea surface temperatures in the region between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea along with warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. SST’s are running anywhere from .5 to 1.5 degrees above normal. Tropical cyclones feed off the warm ocean surface for strength so above average SST’s are an important sign for increased activity and potentially stronger storms.

2. Forecasted modeling of sea level pressures in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico are expected to run below average during the peak of the hurricane season (August and September). The well below normal surface pressures last year led to an increase in hurricane activity. Current suggestions do not show as long of a sea level pressure anomaly this year suggesting the number of storms may be less. However, the slightly higher pressures and current position of the controlling sub-tropical high over the Atlantic suggest an increased threat for long tracked storms with potential for an enhanced threat to the Gulf coast and especially the western Gulf.


3. ENSO Phase: Current ENSO phase it rapidly trending from La Nina toward Neutral conditions and forecast models continue to show near Neutral conditions for the entire 2011 hurricane season. Such conditions in the Pacific have a positive effect on hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean.

These three factors alone support an increased risk of an active hurricane season for 2011. Additionally the Atlantic has been in a hyper active cycle since 1995 with each season averaging over 12 named storms except in El Nino years (averaging below normal due to high wind shear). The NOAA forecast for this year calls for:

12-18 tropical storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)

Note:
The current pattern strongly favors the 2008 hurricane season as an analog year (a year with similar atmospheric steering patterns and indicators as mentioned above). 2008 showed 4 tropical systems impacting the NW Gulf of Mexico coast (hurricanes: Ike, Gustav, Dolly and TS Edouard).

As with every hurricane season it is strongly urged that residents have a hurricane plan and hurricane kit developed and in place prior to the threat of a tropical system. Tropical systems can spin up quickly in the Gulf of Mexico and over the past several threats (Rita, Ike, Dolly) residents have had days to prepare in advance. On average 66% of Gulf of Mexico hurricanes develop and strike land within 48 hours allowing little preparation time.

There have been no changes to the zip-code evacuation maps or evacuation routes/contra-flow maps for the 2011 season. In the event that mass evacuations are required they will be called by zip code in a phase order from coastal locations inland. It is very important that coastal residents along the immediate coastline be allowed to evacuate first as they are at great risk of inundation from storm surge flooding. Inland residents should plan to shelter in place.

Link to Zip Code Evacuation Map for SE TX:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hgx/trop ... oneMap.pdf

High Resolution Storm Surge Inundation Maps for Coastal Bend:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=stormsurge

HCFCD Hurricane Tracker (with smart phone app) and Hurricane Guide:
http://www.hcfcd.org/hurricanetracker/

[srainhoutx]

Record highs likely today as temperatures soar into the upper 90’s and low 100’s across the region.

Upper ridge nearly overhead this morning with surface high close by leading to calm winds across the region. Record high yesterday of 98 at IAH will likely be surpassed today under strong heating. Changes are slowly in the works however as the summer time pattern continues to become established and the under falls increasingly under the influences of the Gulf of Mexico.

93L:

Small but very well defined low pressure system that was off the SC coast yesterday morning is racing WSW now across the central Gulf of Mexico. A large ball of convection has developed this morning well north and northwest of the surface low likely due to the enhancement of the landbreeze coming off the LA coast. This convection is moving rapidly westward at 30-40mph just south of central LA. There does not appear to be much chance for development of this system as it will be moving inland over MX/S TX in the next 14 hours and moisture over the western Gulf if limited which will cut down on organized thunderstorm activity near the center. This system will bring a surge of moisture toward the TX coast in the next 24 hours and possibly allow the seabreeze to produce a couple of rounds of afternoon/evening convection. May even see a few storms pop this afternoon east of I-45 as the current convective complex S of LA races westward and collapses sending an outflow boundary toward the area. Upper ridging and subsidence will be hard to overcome this afternoon however.

With the upper ridge shifting northeast Saturday-Monday expect the deeper moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches to surge into the region. Capping in the mid levels will be removed and trigger temperatures will fall to the lower 90’s. Expect the sebreeze to move inland during the late morning hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary and continuing into the afternoon hours. Some will see a quick 1-2 inches of rain under the scattered storms while others will likely get nothing. Will go with 30/40% for Sunday, but we could go a bit higher if not for the intense drought in place.

A return to hot and dry weather by next Tuesday as ridging becomes established overhead again.

[srainhoutx]

High temperature records fell yesterday and it looks like they will fall again today.

High yesterday of 100 at BUSH IAH is the earliest 100 degree day in the history of Houston. The previous record was June 10, 1902 (109 year record). Strong high pressure ridge remains parked just northeast of the region providing subsidence aloft limiting cloud cover resulting in strong surface heating. With the very dry grounds that heat up quickly, see no reason why most sites will not go into the upper 90’s to low 100’s again this afternoon and likely on Saturday also. Very warm weather and drought tend to go hand in hand and the current historic drought in progress is starting to be realized in our record of temperatures.

With the extreme heat by late afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms may be able to develop mainly east of I-45 similar to yesterday afternoon/evening. These storms will be isolated at best and most locations will not see any rainfall.

Upper ridge attempts to shift a touch north of the region Sunday and Monday and this will allow disturbances on the southern side of the high to rotate westward into SE TX from the central Gulf coast. Given the extreme drought in place will go no greater than 30% for both Sunday and Monday…these rains will likely be scattered so some will see some rain while others will get nothing. Best chances will be near the coast and east of I-45.

Upper ridge builds back into the area Tuesday and that will effectively end rain chances.

Drought:

BUSH IAH has gone 129 days without .5 of an inch of rainfall in a signal day. The previous record was 93 days. Rainfall departures across the region are now averaging 15-23 inches. It is very likely the only weather system strong enough to upset the ongoing drought is a tropical cyclone and given the very large rainfall departures it may require two hits to bring enough rainfall to break the drought. Until this happens we will continue to cook nearly every day with the very dry ground allowing highs to reach the upper 90’s to near 100.


High temperature records for yesterday:

Bush IAH: 100 (old record 97 in 2008)
Hobby: 98 (old record 97 in 2003)
Galveston: 94 (tied record from 1953)
Victoria: 99 (old record 97 in 1938, 1916, 1913)

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fires continue to burn across southeast Texas this morning however moisture is increasing and rain chances on the upswing.

Will not be meeting Red Flag Warning criteria today with a significant increase in surface RH and lower wind speeds (still gusty though).

Fire Updates: Grimes County (Dyer Mill Fire): The mandatory evacuation area was expanded to 56 sq miles Monday evening after ground crews were unable to hold fire lines on the northern in western flanks due to very strong winds. 1800 homes and businesses are being threatened by this fire within the area bounded by Hwy 105, FM 1774 and FM 362 south of Plantersville. 35 homes have been lost from the 5,000 acre fire with an additional 20-25 outbuildings burned. 20 fire departments from all of Grimes County, sections of Montgomery County, and Brazos County including Bryan and College Station are actively working this fire. TFS has 6 dozer crews cutting 40 ft fire breaks around threatened structures and re-cutting northern and western flank fire lines that were breached yesterday afternoon. Several TFS and TX National Guard helicopters were used Monday afternoon to drop water on spot fires from blowing embers and try to maintain the fire lines. C-130 heavy air tankers were also dispatched out of San Antonio to drop water and slurry on the fire…without the air support it is estimated that at least 100 additional homes would have been lost yesterday afternoon. Hundreds of power poles and fences have burned with power outages in several areas along with loose cattle. The Houston SPCA is responding to establish an animal/cattle staging and shelter area in Navasota.

Walker/Madison County (Midway Fire): Fire continues to burn in Pine forest north of Huntsville. Fire has burned 2,500 acres and threatened about 20 homes. Weaker winds and higher RH values overnight along with near continuous air attack on the north and western flanks of the fire have brought this fire to under 65% contained. TFS dozer crews have cut a significant amount of fire line and 13 fire departments on the ground feel they can hold those lines even if winds pick up this afternoon.

Trinity/Polk County (Bearing Fire): This fire has now become the largest wildfire in east Texas history with 20,220 acres burned and 6 structures. Strong winds Monday afternoon resulted in extensive crowning in the Pine tree tops and rapid spread however the fire is burning in mostly rural areas of the Davey Crockett National Forest. 14 fire departments are responding along with TFS ground crews and multiple helicopters and heavy air tankers. Ground crews are having a difficult time cutting fire lines in the thick brush and the air support is greatly helping to bring the fire to now 40% containment. Heavy rains over SE Polk County currently are just missing this fire to the southeast.

Jasper County (Powerline Fire): 4,000 acres burned with 1500 homes threatened in the area around Lake Sam Rayburn. Numerous camp house have burned and a voluntary evacuation order remains in effect for the Forest Hill subdivision and Rayburn Country Subdivision. The fire jumped containment lines Sunday evening and crews worked Monday to cut new fire lines on the northern flank of the fire. The fire has shown some crowning and trees burned near large power transmission lines to the City of Jasper and then fell on top of the lines cutting power to the entire town.

Other State Fires: Brooks County (S TX): 22,000 acres burned with 65% containment 25 miles SE of Hebbronville. At least 300 fire fighters are working this fire on the ground with heavy rain support. Rain Chances:Moisture has greatly increased along and east of I-45 overnight as noted by numerous showers moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough over the northern plains has helped create a weakness in the ridge over TX and this is allowing a slightly more favorable environment for rainfall production. So far none of the showers have impacted the fire locations, but it was close near the Bearing Fire currently.

Expect moisture to gradually spread NW across the region today with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly east of US 59. Additional activity along a weak front over north TX may also send outflow boundaries southward to interact with the increasing moisture to produce additional activity over our fire stricken northern counties late this afternoon and evening. Storm motions have been fairly rapid so far this morning so amounts have been averaging less than .25 of an inch. Storm motions should begin to slow this afternoon and tonight allowing great rainfall amounts under the cells. More widespread activity is expected on Wednesday as the tropical moisture covers nearly all of east TX east of I-35. Should see numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over the Gulf and spread inland during the morning and afternoon hours. Low trigger temperatures and no capping should allow a few rounds of storms to spread inland. Upper ridge begins to become established again by Thursday with best moisture shifting southward as the ridge builds over NW TX. Rain chances will rapidly decrease to 30-40% on Thursday and 20% on Friday and nearly nothing into the weekend while temperatures move back into the upper 90’s.

Rainfall Amounts:Rainfall amounts for the next 24-348 hours will average .25 of an inch with isolated amounts of .5-1.5 inches possible. While many locations will see rain a few locations may not see any rain at all especially over our western counties where moisture is lowest. Fire Weather: Should see decent fire weather conditions today as afternoon RH does not fall below 50% and winds should be in the 10-20mph range instead of the 35mph gust of yesterday. Additionally scattered showers and cloud cover will help lower temperatures and keep RH higher this afternoon. The negative continues to be the extremely dry ground fuels.

Overall, offensive fire fighting operations will be likely today with both ground and air crews likely to make significant gains on the ongoing fires. Hopefully we can get some of the rains over the ongoing fires and help bring them under control. RH falls and winds pick up again this weekend, and depending on how much rainfall the area receives in the next 24-48 hours fire weather conditions may return to elevated conditions late this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

A few lucky folks have actually saw some rainfall over the holiday weekend with Saturday being the most widespread coverage.

Upper ridge which has held firm for months has given just enough ground to allow moisture and disturbances to slide down its SE face and into SE TX from LA over the past few days. Yesterday saw a fair amount of dry air move into the region from the east, while today shows extensive upstream moisture over LA and a well defined disturbance over NC LA moving SSW. Combination of incoming very moist air mass and the upper level disturbance should result in scattered thunderstorms develop after about 300pm (once trigger temperatures in the mid 90’s) are reached from roughly Lake Charles to Lufkin. Mid level flow is out of the NE and ENE so storms should move steadily SW to WSW into SE TX by late afternoon/early evening. Not sure how far SW storms will make it, but areas along and E of I-45 stand the best shot. Should decent outflow boundaries establish then storms could drive deep into the region after dark…and this may be what happens as there is decent upper level support and a similar setup to last night over LA where storms went until about 200am.

Similar setup on Wednesday so expect another round of late afternoon thunderstorms with about 30-40% coverage. Air mass today and Wednesday will have a pronounced near surface dry layer supporting strong winds as rain shafts fall toward the surface and initially evaporate. Outflow winds of 40-55mph will be possible near the stronger storms.

Upper ridge will begin to build back eastward on Thursday, but never really builds directly overhead. Feel best rain chances will move southward and focus along the daily seabreeze front…will carry 20% each afternoon mainly south of I-10 Thursday-Saturday.

Rain chances the next few days will offer little help to the ongoing drought as only a few locations will see wetting rains. Rainfall departures are now nearly 20.00 inches at nearly all climate sites and an astounding 26.37 inches at Tomball since October of 2010.

Late weekend/Early Next Week:
Upper ridge migrates toward the OH valley allowing a deep southeasterly flow to develop over the region. GFS and ECMWF both show significant moisture from the current central Caribbean tropical wave advecting toward the TX coast by Sunday. PWS should rapidly rise toward 2.0 inches and possibly higher suggesting an active seabreeze early in the day (prior to noon). The models have been trying to spin up an upper level feature with this moisture surge in the form of an upper level low and position it along the lower TX coast early next week, which would be favorable for continued moist feed and moderate to high rain chances. This may be a decent shot at more widespread rains over this parched landscape.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff this afternoon regarding 90L...

The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea has slowed over the past 24 hours and has developed scattered deep convection in and around the wave axis (just south of the west part of Cuba). At this time visible satellite images do not show a closed low level circulation, and surface observations from the Cayman Islands show a strong wave axis and no closed surface low. However convection has been increasing over this area today and it is very possible that a surface low could form over the next 24 hours as the system moving toward the Yucatan Channel.

This wave will move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-72 hours with both upper level and surface conditions becoming increasingly favorable for development of this wave. Only drawback appears to be dry air over the central and western Gulf of Mexico which could limit some of the convection and organization. IF a low level center can form conditions look overall favorable for intensification and this falls in line with the latest model run intensity guidance showing the system developing into a closed tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. The global models seem to still not be latching on to this system and show limited development while the short range NAM and hurricane model HWRF bring a tropical cyclone to the western Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend.

Potential Track:
Model guidance today has shifted northward from northern Mexico into the TX coast due to the migration of the ridge over TX toward the east starting tomorrow. Pattern is fairly similar to the record heat and drought of 1980, but appears the ridge this year is slightly more northward and northeastward than in August of 1980. As the ridge shifts eastward later this week, a weakness will be developing over the NW Gulf and TX allowing any tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico to turn toward the NW toward the weakness in the ridge. It is a fairly straightforward forecast track as any system will round the western side of the high over the SE US and impact the MX/TX coast. How fast the ridge breaks down and shifts eastward does lead to some amount of forecast track spread in the 72-96 hour period from the middle TX coast to NE MX. Additionally, there is no low level center at the moment, and where/when one forms could also impact the forecast track.

Impacts:
For now will go with some slow development possibly with the system forming into a tropical storm and heading for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week. Will keep things conservative at this time with increased rain chances of 30-50% Friday-Saturday and back winds to the E starting Friday morning and increasing into the 10-25mph range. Should the system become a tropical storm or a hurricane significant forecast changes will be required for much of the TX coast including significant ramping up of tides and seas along the coast for Friday and Saturday and much greater rain chances.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next 48 hours. Regardless of current developments, residents should review hurricane preparation plans.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Potential tropical cyclone threat to the state of Texas later this week/weekend.

Significant forecast changes likely over the next 48 hours.

Discussion:
The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized with deep convection frequent near/over the wave axis. Radar out of Cancun and surface observations suggest that the strong mid level center may be working its way to the surface and developing a surface circulation, at this time it is weak and barely noted in the surface data and deep convection while persistent remains scattered.

Track:
Massive high pressure ridge holding over TX for months will be moving ENE toward the Carolinas over the next 48 hours allowing a weakness to develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico and the TX coast. The Caribbean system will track along the SW side of the ridge into this weakness or in the general direction of the TX coast. Global guidance is still not “seeing” what is happening in the Caribbean Sea and shows little development, so will toss it out as it is clear that a tropical system is forming. Will follow the expected ridge position and split the difference between the 2 hurricane forecasting models (GFDL and HWRF) and the multi model consensus package and indicate a potential threat from Galveston to Brownsville with highest threat right now from about Corpus Christi to Port O Connor. GFDL takes the system as a cat 1 hurricane into Galveston Bay while the HWRF takes the system as a strong cat 1 into the area near Corpus Christi. The multi model consensus is pegged just west of Port O Connor taking into account the GFS and GFDL upper coast and the HWRF and EURO southern coast.

Will get a better handle on the spreading track solutions by this evening as data from a USAF mission midday today is ingested into the models.

Intensity:
Overall size of the system is small which means it is vulnerable to surrounding atmospheric conditions moreso than a large system. The system is over very warm waters with temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sea. Upper level shear while strong over the northern Gulf of Mexico is light over the southern Gulf and forecast to gradually weekend as the southern plains high shifts eastward. The air mass over the southern Gulf does have a bit of dry air and this may be one reason as to why the convection has been fairly meager with this system and this could impact the system down the road as it moves across the Gulf. Overall conditions in the Gulf appear favorable for development and small system can spin up/down very quickly due to surrounding atmospheric changes (dry air intrusion, weak shear, ect). SHIPS guidance brings the system to a hurricane in the Gulf along with the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models, while the GFS, EURO, and CMC show very little development at all. Feel the big global models (GFS, EURO, and CMC) are missing this small system altogether and will not put much faith in their current forecast, while the hurricane models do seem high. For now will go with a blend of the two camps and lean toward the stronger solutions with a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane approaching the TX coast late Friday.

Impacts:
Feel it is best to await data from the aircraft this afternoon before going full force on coastal impacts. Forecast will no doubt need some significant changes with respect to seas, tides, rain changes, and rainfall amounts, along with wind forecast for Friday into Saturday. Will at least bump rain chances to 50% for Friday for areas south of I-10 and this could go much higher and hit those same areas with widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall. Coastal winds will begin to back from the SSW to ESE and then E Thursday night into Friday and increase. For now will hold winds below TS force over all areas awaiting NHC wind guidance if/once the system is declared. Based on current track guidance feel, TS force winds (40mph or greater) will be needed by Friday evening over parts of the middle and upper TX coast waters and coastal counties and spreading inland Friday night.

Preparations:
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical Storm forms in the SE Gulf of Mexico

Strong tropical storm or weak hurricane forecast to impact the TX coast late Friday

Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the middle TX coast should begin.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm -Watches/Warnings will be required for portions of the TX coast later tonight or early Thursday.

Discussion:
Tropical wave now in the SE Gulf of Mexico has organized enough to be declared a tropical cyclone and at 400pm advisories have been initiated. Recon aircraft have reported flight level winds of 47mph with gust to 52mph in the heavy convection on the southern side of the system. Reduction to the surface gives wind speeds strong enough to declare the system a tropical storm. Surface pressure recorded was 1001mb per a dropsonde. Per recon TS force winds only extend outward 45 miles from the center….this is a small system, so where it makes landfall is extremely important from an impact point of view.

Track:
Since this morning models have become more in line with a solution aiming at the middle TX coast around Matagorda Bay. 12Z model runs go as follows: HWRF near Matagorda Bay, GFS east side of Matagorda Bay, GFDL near Galveston, and EURO south of Corpus. Multi model consensus is just west of Port O Connor and so there is growing confidence of a landfall near/along the middle TX/coastal bend part of the TX coast. Still some uncertainty in the exact track as much depends on the high to the NE of TX and how much this high break down possibly allowing a more NW turn as the system nears the coast. Track looks very similar to Claudette 2003. Official track forecast has the center making landfall near Port O Connor around midnight Friday night.

Intensity:
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for intensification and it appears the system will approach hurricane intensity at landfall. Latest HWRF run peaks the system as a 70kt hurricane prior to landfall and this is in line with the SHIPS intensity model also showing a hurricane, while the GFS and GFDL show little intensification. Small system such as this one can spin up very quickly if deep thunderstorms develop over their inner core and can undergo rapid intensification (Humberto 2007 comes to mind). Given at least 36 hours over the warm Gulf under fairly favorable conditions I would not rule out rapid intensification especially as the system nears the coast on Friday. Guidance shows a 19% chance of a 25kt increase in wind speed in the next 48 hours or 1.5 times what would normally be expected.

Impacts:
Will keep impacts fairly general for now and firm them up with greater detail on Thursday morning or later this evening once warnings/watches are issued. Again this is NOT forecast to be a large hurricane (like IKE), but a small system similar to Humberto so the impacts will be local to the area within about 50-60 miles of the center.

Rainfall:
An average of 3-5 inches can be expected along and about 80 miles to the east of the landfall area with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. While the area is suffering from exceptional drought, rainfall of this magnitude in a short period of time (12-24 hours) may result in significant run off and rises on area watersheds.

Wind:
Strong damaging winds of 60-75mph with gust to near 80mph will be possible near and within about 40 miles of where the center crosses the coast. This puts the core of strong winds across the Matagorda Bay region south to near Rockport Friday night. Tropical Storm force winds will likely onset within the next 50 hours between Matagorda County and Aransas County. There remains some uncertainty with the forecast track and should the track shift to the north or the south the wind forecast will need to be updated.

Storm Surge:
Due to the small size of this system storm surge should be lower than 5 feet along the TX coast with the greatest surge near and just to the right (east) of where the center crosses the coast. Tides will run 1-3 feet above normal well to the east of the track due to wave run up including much of the upper TX coast. Tides of this level should not cause significant coastal flooding, but some overwash will be possible at times of high tide along the barrier islands. Storm surge values near the point of landfall may reach up to 3-4 feet (near or within Matagorda Bay)

Actions:
Residents along the middle and upper TX coast should review their hurricane plans and should be prepared to enact these plans first thing Thursday morning as we will be within 48 hours of the landfall of TS force winds by early Thursday.

For locations around Matagorda Bay (Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, Aransas counties):

Windows in structures along the coast (beachfront) should be covered and outside objects secured. Boats should be moored or removed to prevent damage.

Main focus should be on heavy rainfall and possible strong winds which may bring down trees and power poles near where the center moves ashore causing widespread power outages. Lower end category 1 winds of 75-80mph can cause minor roof and window damage and similar damage to that of hurricane Claudette in 2003 in the same region will be possible.

Will likely send another update late this evening as hurricane/TS watches/warnings will likely be issued at this time.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff before RECON arrived:

Tropical Storm Watch is extended southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to west of San Luis Pass.

A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be issued for portions of the TX coast later this morning

Discussion:
Poorly organized tropical storm Don over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning with winds of 40mph. Since yesterday afternoon convection near and around the small center has weakened and the satellite presentation is looking poor as Don has become increasingly squeezed by a building high over the NE Gulf of Mexico and upper low over eastern MX. Weak to moderate easterly wind shear has developed over the system and as noted before given is very small size such minor factors can really have a big impact. Recon aircraft will be in the system within the next few hours and we shall see what they find.

Track:
Good news is that the track guidance ingested the recon data from yesterday afternoon and have come into much better agreement on the track of Don mainly toward the WNW and the lower to middle TX coast. The GFDL and GFS upper coast hold outs yesterday afternoon have now fallen closer in line with the rest of the guidance suite with the GFDL still being the right most (eastern) model toward the Matagorda Bay area with the rest of the guidance now fairly tightly clustered around Corpus Christi. One may say…remember Rita and Ike…but we are not dealing with a large and powerful hurricane, but a very small tropical storm and the ridge of high pressure is already starting to build westward along the US Gulf coast and this should help Don move more to the left (west) than suggested yesterday. The EURO model has been consistent the entire time on this track and appears to have had the correct idea all along. The 400am NHC forecast track has been shifted southward and now has landfall Friday night just south of Corpus Christi.

Intensity:
Such tiny systems are at the mercy of many atmospheric variables that can cause very rapid changes in intensity both up and down. Weak shear and dry air can rapidly weaken such systems while favorable conditions can result in explosive development. Don has struggled to maintain deep convection since yesterday afternoon under light easterly shear and upper level convergence (sinking air aloft). It is likely that surface pressures are up due to the overall lack of convection…but we should wait until the plane gets into the system this morning before making too many assumptions based on satellite data. None of the major global model show much development of the system, even the usually aggressive HWRF and GFDL. Nearly all guidance keeps the system a tropical storm through landfall. NHC has lowered their landfall intensity to around 55-60mph down from 65-75mph yesterday and this seems reasonable. However, remember that these tiny systems can spin up very quickly and conditions near the TX coast will be more favorable for development….it is still possible that a small window for quicker intensification may occur just prior to landfall. For now will continue to go with a 60-70mph tropical storm or just below hurricane intensity.

Impacts:
Small size of the system will make impacts limited to very near the point of landfall (wind and tide wise). Rainfall will be more expansive around the system.

Rainfall
On average 2-4 inches will be common near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible mainly near the center (in or around and just south of the Corpus area and then extending inland toward Del Rio). Rainbands north of Don from Rockport to the upper TX coast will bring an average of .5-1.5 inches with isolated amounts of 2-3 inches possible especially around Matagorda Bay. Given the exceptional drought conditions in place, this rainfall will be extremely helpful.

Wind
Tropical storm force winds will be likely in a very small area near and just to the right of where the center cross the coast or mainly across Kenedy, Kleberg, and Nueces counties. Gust to tropical storm force winds will be possible in squalls over San Patricio, Refugio, and Aransas counties. Weakening TS force winds will spread inland over Jim Wells, Bee, and Live Oak counties early Saturday morning and into Duval, McMullen, Atascosa, Frio, and La Salle counties Saturday midday.

Tropical storm force winds should reach the coast Friday evening around 700pm.

Tides
Tides will increase by late Friday along the middle and lower TX coast as Don approaches. Tides will run 1-3 feet above normal on the Gulf facing beaches (barrier islands) from Corpus Christi Bay southward to where the center crosses the coast. Tides will run 1-2 feet above normal from Corpus Christi Bay to Matagorda Bay. North of Matagorda Bay tides will run around 1 foot above normal. Some minor coastal flooding may be possible along the north end of Padre Island and around Mustang Island early Saturday morning.

Actions:
Residents in the TS watch area should be making preparations for the landfall of a tropical storm within the next 36 hours. Main impacts will be felt across Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Kleberg, and Kenedy counties and these are the counties where preparations should be underway.