April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[jasons2k]

I flew home from Albuquerque today. I could see huge plumes of dust being picked-up by the winds in Eastern NM and West Texas. I could also see large swaths of land burned by recent wildfires. The wind trails were very evident from the plane...just fascinating to see.

[wxman57]

Another couple hours of rain like I saw at my house this morning and there could be a few puddles forming. Only 0.01" recorded at IAH, and about the same in SW Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Be careful out there today...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

.A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...VERY DRY
FUELS COMBINED WITH THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PRESENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO NEW WAVERLY...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW
WAVERLY TO BRENHAM.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-160200-
/O.CON.KHGX.FW.W.0005.110415T1500Z-110416T0200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
523 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 163...164...176...177...
178...179...195...196...197...198...199...200...210...211...
212...213...214...226...227...235...236...237 AND 238.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY NOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE.

* HIGHEST THREAT...BECAUSE OF THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...VERY DRY
FUELS COMBINED WITH THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PRESENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO NEW WAVERLY...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW
WAVERLY TO BRENHAM.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

[wxman57]

The precip areas really look suspect on the GFS run beyond 192 hrs. That big rain event it has for Easter weekend looks bogus. GFS and Euro only have a weak 500mb trof passing to our north, not much different than what they're forecasting for Tuesday and weaker than what passed last night.

[srainhoutx]

DW Hooks this hour:

Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT) gusting to 25 MPH (22 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point 33.1 F (0.6 C)
Relative Humidity 17%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.87 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob KDWH 151853Z 33011G22KT 10SM CLR 27/01 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720006

Visible imagery show fires breaking out all across TX this afternoon.

Radar W of Ft Worth...



San Angelo:

[wxman57]

Yep, lots of fires.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
TOM GREEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SAN ANGELO TEXAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TOM
GREEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SAN ANGELO TEXAS.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF TOM GREEN
COUNTY NORTH OF SAN ANGELO AND EAST OF GRAPE CREEK DUE TO AN
APPROACHING WILDFIRE. THE AFFECTED AREAS INCLUDE LOCATIONS BETWEEN
US HIGHWAY 87 AND US HIGHWAY 277 NORTH OF FARM TO MARKET ROAD
2105. THIS INCLUDES QUAIL VALLEY AND RED CREEK.

THE SAN ANGELO COLISEUM IS STANDING UP AS A TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR
THOSE DISPLACED BY THESE EVACUATIONS.

$$

JOHNSON

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129-141-152200-
MONTAGUE TX-JACK TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-COMANCHE TX-
358 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
COMANCHE COUNTY
EASTLAND COUNTY
JACK COUNTY
MONTAGUE COUNTY
PALO PINTO COUNTY
PARKER COUNTY
STEPHENS COUNTY
WISE COUNTY
YOUNG COUNTY

VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH...WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS DANGEROUS FIRES ARE OCCURRING...AND DUE TO THE LOW
HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FIRE OFFICIALS ARE CONDUCTING
EVACUATIONS. BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY EVACUATE IF YOUR COUNTY
OFFICIALS REQUEST IT.

ROAD CLOSURES ARE ALSO OCCURRING. IT IS EXTREMELY
IMPORTANT NOT TO DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES...YOU MAY BE DRIVING RIGHT
INTO A FIRE.

[srainhoutx]

Sigh...

[unome]

John Nielsen-Gammon has a good blog about the fires today: http://blogs.chron.com/climateabyss/201 ... _2011.html













(oops -corrected the blog name)

[texoz]

I don't recall ever seeing that much smoke from fires in Texas.

[wxman57]

GFS is backing away from predicting any significant rain Easter weekend. Now it indicates maybe some rain around the 30th. Yeah, we'll see...

[srainhoutx]

If only the Euro could be right for later in the week...sigh...

[wxman57]

Yurpain shows a squall line Tuesday afternoon into evening dropping 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches across the metro area, but it doesn't seem to me, as a casual observer, to have been super accurate lately.

I assume you mean NEXT Tuesday, not tomorrow. We'll see.

[jasons2k]

Well, we can't blame the "cool shelf waters" any longer:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 8.2011.gif

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 0_mult.png

[wxman57]

Well, we can't blame the "cool shelf waters" any longer:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 8.2011.gif

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 0_mult.png

No, we can blame the persistent SW flow aloft keeping the atmosphere bone dry above the lower few thousand feet.

[srainhoutx]

SPC has updated concerning tomorrow...something to watch...

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS TX WILL
REMOVE THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM DFW...SWWD TOWARD AUS. IT/S
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DO SO WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO CNTRL TX THEN A
SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED SWWD TO INCLUDE THIS SCENARIO.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, we can't blame the "cool shelf waters" any longer:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 8.2011.gif

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 0_mult.png

No, we can blame the persistent SW flow aloft keeping the atmosphere bone dry above the lower few thousand feet.

Courtesy of La Nina. I await the persistent cockroach aloft to die soon.

[Ptarmigan]

Large area of high pressure over us.


It is much warmer than normal at 5,000 feet.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro and the GFS are suggesting a bit of deeper Western Trough developing over the coming weekend. Those models hint some better rain chances early next week as well. This far out I have trouble believing anything the models suggest, rain wise.