April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS dropped the rainfall forecast for around Easter from 2-3 inches down to a few tenths of an inch.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS dropped the rainfall forecast for around Easter from 2-3 inches down to a few tenths of an inch.

It is a good thing you are a highly trained professional, or else I'd have to poke fun at someone hanging on individual runs of a model 12 days out...

I only pointed out the dramatic change in the latest GFS run, I did not imply either was correct or incorrect. The GFS is mostly useless beyond the next 5-7 days. It frequently indicates big events in the 10-15 day time frame that never materialize. I don't see anything to change the general pattern (drought) over the next few weeks, so I'd be disinclined to believe any wild rainfall forecasts from the GFS in the 10-15 day time frame.

[TexasBreeze]

It's about that time of year for that model to start spitting out phantom tropical systems in that long range!

[wxman57]

It's about that time of year for that model to start spitting out phantom tropical systems in that long range!

I think that typically starts in early May. Generally the GFS will try to develop something in the SW Caribbean by the 2nd-3rd week of May.

[unome]

Masters' WU Blog discusses Texas drought today

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1779


Figure 2. The history of March drought conditions in Texas since 1895, as computed using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI factors in both precipitation and temperature to come up with a measure of drought severity. Values of the PDSI below -3 are classified as "extreme" drought, and below -4 is the highest classification of drought, "exceptional." This year's drought is the 16th worst March drought in Texas history. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A dry forecast
The drought in Texas is likely to get much worse and spread northwards and westwards over the coming months, and will probably rank as one of the top five droughts in Texas history by the time summer arrives. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little or no precipitation for the drought region over the next week, with the next chance of significant rains coming April 19 - 20. The latest 1-month and 3-month outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center show above-average chances for warm and dry conditions over the drought region extending into summer. La Niña conditions are expected to wane and become neutral by June, but the influence of La Niña on the atmosphere will stay strong through June, keeping the preferred storm track north of Texas and causing below-average rains to the drought region. Real relief from the drought of 2011 will likely only occur when hurricane season starts to get going, bringing moisture-laden tropical disturbances or tropical cyclones to the Texas coast in June and July.

[srainhoutx]

HGX copy and paste forecast for the next week and beyond I suspose:

STILL SOME WIDELY DIFFERENT RUN-TO-RUN MODEL FCST SOLNS
GOING ON IN THE EXTENDED (ESP GFS) PARTS OF THE FCST TIME PERIOD...BUT
THE GENERAL RULE OF NOT FCSTING RAIN IN A DROUGHT IS PROBABLY A
SAFE BET THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

I will not be mentioning any rain chances next week and I will certainly not bring up any rain chances for Easter Weekend.

[wxman57]

I will not be mentioning any rain chances next week and I will certainly not bring up any rain chances for Easter Weekend.

Unfortunately, I think you're right. GFS continues to try to forecast a big rain event in the very long range, only to drop the event when it's about 7-10 days away.

[srainhoutx]

Yurpian Community still likes late Tuesday and again for Good Friday.

{fingers in ears} La La La La La {/fingers in ears}

[wxman57]

I figure IAH will get a sprinkle or two with each of these events next week. I picked 0.91" of rain at IAH for April in our contest, and I'm wondering if IAH will even get THAT much rain this month. I think I figured maybe 0.25" next week, but that could be generous.

[srainhoutx]

While not an issue in our part of the world, our neighbors to the N and E may see some severe weather today into tomorrow...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO
THROUGH ERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING
EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND APPROACHING THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ITS DOWNSTREAM PROGRESS SLOWS AS IT BECOMES A
CLOSED LOW. AN INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...INCIPIENT SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY
LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS OK AND THEN
OCCLUDE OVER KS. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN OVER CNTRL OK AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KS...WHILE A COLD FRONT INITIALLY TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS BY
15/12Z.

...ERN KS/OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z INDICATE MOIST TONGUE OF AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS ERN TX...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F OVER N-CNTRL
TX TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. BY MID
AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL AID IN NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH MOIST AXIS BECOMING
POSITIONED ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE OCCLUSION OVER CNTRL KS /WHERE
MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED/ SWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE OVER CNTRL/ERN OK /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND N-NCNTRL/NERN TX
/MID 60S DEWPOINTS/. MEANWHILE...12Z RAOBS INDICATE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION /AOA 7.5 C PER KM IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER/...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
OVER KS...TO 1000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER OK AND TX.

COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH SRN KS...WILL AID IN INITIAL AREA OF
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
INVOF THE CNTRL KS SURFACE LOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS N
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPEAR SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
ROTATING STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR S-SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY NARROW WIDTH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AS THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDES...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR DOWNSTREAM THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO.

FARTHER S OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AND NERN TX...MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET
SPREADING ACROSS THE DRYLINE. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /NEAR 70 KT IN THE 0-8 KM
LAYER/ WILL FAVOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO
ENLARGE BY EVENING...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 200-400
M2 S-2. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...WITH A STRONG TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BETWEEN
15/00Z-15/12Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE
ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS STRUCTURE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AR AND SRN MO
OVERNIGHT...POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/14/2011

[wxman57]

I'm looking forward to another 6-8 inches of rain from this frontal passage. 6-8 inches space between raindrops, that is...

[redneckweather]

I was standing in my front yard yesterday evening, let out a fart and dust flew out from underneath my feet. That's all I got.

[srainhoutx]

SPC hinting a possible upgrade to High Risk later today...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWD THRU
ERN OK FAR WRN AR INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER CO/NM WILL DEEPEN ENEWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY
TONIGHT AS POWERFUL UPSTREAM JET AND COLD ADVECTION ROTATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW NWRN OK
DEEPENS NNEWD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SECONDARY LOW TAKES
SHAPE BY THIS EVENING SRN OK/TX BORDER IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
THE UPSTREAM JET AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF THE FORECAST OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON THE DRY LINE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN KS THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX OUT
TO A POSITION FROM NEAR RSL SSEWD TO ABOUT ICT AND THEN VICINITY
I-35 INTO NRN TX.

THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE MOISTURE RETURN BUT GIVEN THE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG NWD AHEAD OF DRY LINE INTO
CENTRAL/SERN KS.

DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE
DRYLINE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /NEAR 70 KT IN THE 0-8 KM LAYER/ WILL FAVOR A
FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP RATHER
QUICKLY ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE ALSO
FORECAST TO ENLARGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
JET BACKS AND INCREASES...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASING TO
200-400 M2 S-2. THIS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS.

WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS
EVENING...HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN OK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 120KT UPPER JET MAX WILL BE
FOCUSING ON THIS AREA BY THIS EVENING AND IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY TO PLAY OUT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NWRN OK SWWD INTO TX PANHANDLE IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR AFTER 00Z.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO AID
IN UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS STRUCTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS AR AND SRN MO OVERNIGHT...POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/14/2011

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the N...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...ERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141833Z - 142100Z

EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE BEGINNING IN 20-22Z TIME FRAME...COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD
TO NEWD. DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
DIAMETER. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR TORNADOES AS TSTMS MATURE AND
MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/HIGH-SRH AIR MASS...WITH TIME AND
EWD EXTENT.

18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE JUST E OF US-81 CORRIDOR IN OK
THEN SWWD ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX...WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CU. DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/ADVECT EWD
ACROSS I-35 FROM PVJ AREA NWD...BEFORE DECELERATING AROUND 23Z. TX
DRYLINE SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE EWD TO JUST W OF DFW METROPLEX...NEAR
PRESENT LOCATION OF CONFLUENCE LINE THAT EXTENDS NNEWD FROM HILL
COUNTRY. DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN FURTHER...GIVEN COMBINATION OF
1. CONTINUING MOST ADVECTION TO ITS E...
2. BACKING 850-MB WINDS EVIDENT PAST COUPLE HOURS IN CENTRAL OK
VWP/PROFILER DATA...AND
3. GEOMETRY OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER KS/OK THAT MAY KEEP SLGT ELY
COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR IN CORRIDOR FROM OSAGE COUNTY
SWD TO DUA AREA THROUGH 00Z.

EXPECT CONTINUED STG SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
F IN NRN OK TO MID 60S FROM ADM-ATOKA AREA SWD ACROSS RED
RIVER...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS N TX AND SERN OK BASED ON
MODIFIED 18Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...AND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR OK/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN...AS ALREADY EVIDENT
WITH LOWERING OF 50-KT MIDLEVEL ISOTACH AT TCU PROFILER. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-60 KT. HODOGRAPH SIZE...NOW INDICATING
SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 1-3 KM AGL...WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER ERN OK...BECOMING POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PRODUCTION. STG ORTHOGONAL
COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS...RELATIVE TO
DRYLINE...INDICATES STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER INITIATION. COVERAGE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.

SRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE ARC REGIME -- SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 424
FOR DETAILS -- MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK AFTER
ABOUT 21Z AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Large wildfire showng up on radar just W of Aspermont...

[unome]

showing up on TCEQ satellite / fire views also

[srainhoutx]

Amazing storm...

[srainhoutx]

Wildfire are burning in MX, S of Big Bend as well...

[Andrew]

We (all of Texas) needs rain badly. I feel like unfortuantly it will be something of tropical nature to do that.