April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[unome]

all up & down the US - incredible http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... radar.html

http://tinyurl.com/for-about-1-500-miles

[wxman666]

BAM! New Tornado Watch in Austin/San Antonio region. Looking good so far.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0126.html

[txflagwaver]

Well at least central Texas is getting a little rain...I doubt it's going to make it to us though...

[srainhoutx]

Red Flag Warning up for all of SE TX. The front is nearing the Metro area from the W...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PLUMMET FROM AROUND 85 PERCENT THIS MORNING TO 13 TO 25 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION.

[unome]

just watered the lawn in cycles, from 6:30 to 9:30 - it's now raining in Cypress, I'll take it

[srainhoutx]

A tenth of an inch with the narrow line of showers on the front that can't quite break through the cap?

Maybe a tenth of an inch at best in my backyard. That said, it was enough to wash some pollen away and the heaviest rain I've seen in a couple of weeks.

[wxman57]

Line appears to be splitting and going around my house in southwest Houston.

[jasons2k]

.16" at my house....not much but better than nothing.

[srainhoutx]

So the GFS de jour suggests a stormy Easter weekend. Almost 2 inches of convective rains for the area. If only that could be correct.

[srainhoutx]

So the GFS de jour suggests a stormy Easter weekend. Almost 2 inches of convective rains for the area. If only that could be correct.

What about the ensembles?

Not too bad at this range...

[wxman57]

For a run or two, the GFS had indicated some significant rain this coming Sunday. Latest run dropped the rain from the forecast in favor of cool/dry conditions this weekend, as it had been forecasting for the past few days.

[Ptarmigan]

I am afraid what would end this drought is a major weather event, like in the past. The 1950s drought ended in a catastrophic flood event in 1957. I think a tropical cyclone is what it takes to end this drought at this point.

[wxman57]

I'm curious - we're having an ongoing contest predicting different weather variables for IAH over the next 6 months. For April, we have to predict the total observed rainfall at IAH to the nearest hundredth of an inch.

If you were entering this contest, what value would you chose? I'll tell you my estimate in a bit...

Note that IAH has already measured 0.10" of precip as of today.

[tireman4]

I'm curious - we're having an ongoing contest predicting different weather variables for IAH over the next 6 months. For April, we have to predict the total observed rainfall at IAH to the nearest hundredth of an inch.

If you were entering this contest, what value would you chose? I'll tell you my estimate in a bit...

Note that IAH has already measured 0.10" of precip as of today.

You know what. I will try 3.10 inches. Why do I say that? Ya never know.

[srainhoutx]

My guess would be 1.57...maybe a change toward the end of the month...I hope...

[Ptarmigan]

I think 1.25 inches of rain will fall in April.

[wxman57]

Not one drop of rain at my house in Westbury yesterday. As for our contest, entrants picked from 0.15" to 4.77" as their forecast for April rainfall at IAH. The average was 1.47. My pick was 0.91", meaning I think we'll only see an additional 0.81" for the rest of the month. I think that could be generous.

[srainhoutx]

Like a mirage in the distance, the GFS continues to suggest a stormy Easter Weekend (06Z GFS indicates from 4/20th-28th TOTAL PRECIP: 2.41 " and Convective: 1.77 "). There are also hints that a SE Ridge will develop indicating a bit of a change as we transition further into Spring. It also appears that deeper tropical moisture will begin to flow in from the Caribbean and points E. Just perhaps this trend will continue and rain chances will slowly begin to increase as we head into the second half of April.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, the same GFS forecast that this coming weekend would feature a major rain event about a week ago. Solid rain Friday-Sunday. Yeah, right. But I don't want a drop of rain this weekend due to the MS-150 ride to Austin. The riders have faced some pretty bad weather in recent years. Time to give them a break.

[tireman4]

Not one drop of rain at my house in Westbury yesterday. As for our contest, entrants picked from 0.15" to 4.77" as their forecast for April rainfall at IAH. The average was 1.47. My pick was 0.91", meaning I think we'll only see an additional 0.81" for the rest of the month. I think that could be generous.

Where would my guess fall?